Iran analyst
Tehran’s behavior after the June war with Israel reflects a state of suspended decision-making—a fragile equilibrium that may nevertheless endure, sustained by continuing control and the absence of any obvious alternatives.
The 12-day conflict ended without a written agreement, leaving Iran trapped between war and peace.
Instead of rebuilding through reform or reconciliation, the Islamic Republic has doubled down on surveillance, militarization and the distribution of privilege among loyalists.
What has emerged is a system of permanent crisis management: endurance without renewal.
The real decision-makers in Tehran show no appetite for dialogue with the West, and are unwilling to acknowledge recent political and military setbacks or contemplate change.
The priority has become the securitization of every sphere of life—with key decisions even more concentrated in security bodies, and politics almost wholly transferred to backrooms.
A web of military institutions, economic foundations and domestic platforms mediates between state resources and loyal factions. Executions and heavy sentences have surged; and digital rationing and surveillance have expanded.
More ominously, perhaps, official rhetoric is now focused on the threat of foreign enemies and the need for “constant readiness.” Public life is framed as part of a “media war,” while selective enforcement of hijab laws seeks to contain public anger.
Securitized economy
The boundary between political and security institutions has effectively vanished, with routine governance filtered through bodies such as the Supreme National Security Council.
This securitization coincides with an economic shift.
The government’s developmental role has withered, replaced by a mechanism that distributes limited resources among the faithful.
Economic access—to loans, licenses, or capital—now depends more than ever on political trust, reinforcing the role of intermediaries and fueling the rise of new oligarchs.
Together, these dynamics have produced a control-centered order where security agencies, economic foundations, and data platforms operate as a single network.
Decisions are shaped by military priorities and calibrated to maintain balance among loyal factions. Society is governed through access management, creating obedience through the fear of exclusion.
Longevity but no renewal
This post-war order relies on the state’s ability to maintain control and contain crises.
For now, it has prevented wider instability, but its tools are inherently exhaustible. Surveillance must constantly expand to preserve the same level of discipline; redistribution, when not backed by production, steadily drains what remains of the economy.
Decision-making has become reactive and short-term, aimed at averting immediate risks rather than shaping a long-term vision. Institutions function but no longer evolve; ad-hoc councils have replaced political processes
The result is a façade of coordination that in reality narrows the space for reform.
The endurance of this system stems less from institutional strength than from fear—of both domestic unrest and external pressure—and from the absence of political alternatives.
Dissenting forces lack organization; insiders lack capacity for change. The Islamic Republic thus persists through a passive form of survival, feeding on control and limited access to resources.
It may last for years, but this durability is merely a postponement of decisions, one whose eventual cost will fall on both the state and the Iranian people.
“If any aggression is committed against Iran, our response will be stronger than the 12-day war and we will turn the region into hell for the enemy,” Pakpour said, quoted by state broadcaster IRIB.
He added that Iran’s missile systems had performed with “power and precision” during the June war with Israel.
Pakpour made the remarks during a meeting in Tehran with Iraq’s National Security Adviser Qasim al-Araji.
According to Iranian state media, Al-Araji emphasized Iraq’s commitment to security cooperation with Iran and saying his country would not allow its territory to be used for hostile acts against Tehran.
Iran’s top military officials have repeatedly warned they are monitoring regional adversaries and will respond forcefully if provoked.
Armed Forces Chief of Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi said on Monday that Tehran was not seeking war but would deliver a completely different response if attacked.
An Iranian lawmaker also warned on Tuesday that Iran would destroy enemy bases in the region if attacked.
“If the enemy is not attacking now, it is because it cannot,” Esmaeil Siavoshi said on Tuesday, according to state media. “It knows that if it attacks, we will destroy all its bases in the Persian Gulf.”
Pakpour said cooperation between Iran and Iraq was essential to prevent foreign interference and to ensure border security, adding that both countries had agreed to strengthen coordination through a joint field committee.
“The foreign minister announced that Ms. Esfandiari was placed in the exchange framework, and we have prepared a political and consular package that both countries must carry out,” Jalalzadeh said.
“We hope this will happen soon and that we will see Ms. Esfandiari back in our beloved country.”
Jalalzadeh said Iran had pursued legal and consular measures in Esfandiari’s case, including appointing a lawyer and holding ten consular meetings since her detention.
He accused France of holding her over “support for the Palestinian people,” saying her case was politically motivated.
Esfandiari, a student in Lyon, was arrested earlier this year over social media posts that prosecutors said violated counterterrorism laws.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei also said on Monday that Iran was seriously pursuing the issue of detainees with France and that “both sides have the necessary will to resolve it,” according to state media.
Similar remarks were made in September, when Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state television that talks on a prisoner swap with France were “in their final stages.”
The comments came amid continuing diplomatic friction between Tehran and Paris over detained nationals in both countries.
France last week condemned lengthy prison sentences handed to citizens Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris, who were convicted in Iran of espionage. French officials called the charges baseless and their detention arbitrary.
Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said there were “strong prospects” for bringing the two home following a meeting last month between President Emmanuel Macron and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in New York.
Iranian officials have suggested that Esfandiari’s case could be part of a broader dialogue with France on consular matters, but no timetable has been announced.
The US president’s comments were “nonsense spoken to console disheartened Israeli officials after unexpected defeat in the 12-day war,” Khamenei said on Monday in Tehran during a meeting with Iranian sports and science champions.
"The US president proudly says they bombed and destroyed Iran's nuclear industry. Very well, keep dreaming!" he added.
“The United States is in no position to determine what countries should or should not possess nuclear capabilities,” he said, adding that Iran’s youth-built missiles had already “penetrated and destroyed sensitive Israeli facilities.”
Speaking before the Israeli Knesset last week, President Donald Trump said, “We dropped 14 bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which has been confirmed to have obliterated those facilities, and together we helped stop the world’s number one state sponsor of terrorism from making nuclear weapons. If we didn’t do that, there would be a dark cloud over this [Gaza] deal. This was our last shot.”
However, Khamenei said, “The Zionists never imagined that an Iranian-made missile, created by the hands of young Iranians, could reduce parts of their strategic centers to ashes, but it happened.”
“These missiles are ours, built by our youth, not borrowed or bought from anyone. They remain ready and will be used again if necessary,” he added.
Remarks directed at US and Israel
The US president’s visit to Israel, Khamenei said, was an attempt to “revive morale among a defeated regime.”
He described Washington’s comments as “foolish and theatrical behavior,” asserting that such language “reveals how disillusioned the enemy has become.”
“These words were spoken to people who have lost confidence,” he said. “Their 12-day war humiliated them, and the American president went there only to give them spirit.”
Khamenei also accused Western leaders and media of distorting Iran’s progress. “They amplify our shortcomings and conceal our achievements,” he said.
“They want to convince our youth that Iran is dark and stagnant, but every success in sports, science, or technology proves the opposite.”
US accused of partnership in Gaza war
American weapons, logistics, and other resources were provided to Israel and were used against civilians in Gaza, Khamenei said.
He rejected US statements that its actions were aimed at combating terrorism, pointing to civilian casualties.
“They say they fight terrorism. More than 20,000 children and infants were killed in these attacks. Were they terrorists?” he asked.
Khamenei went further, calling the United States itself a producer of terrorism in the region: “You produced ISIS, you unleashed it on the region, and you have kept it as an instrument to use later.”
He accused Washington of direct complicity in the Gaza conflict and in the targeted killings of Iranian scientists, saying, “America is the main partner in this crime.”
