Trump signals Iran deal deadline as reports point to limited strike plans

Iran experienced in January its most widespread and sustained unrest since the founding of the Islamic Republic, as protests spread across cities and provinces and authorities responded with an escalating crackdown that analysts say reflects a deepening crisis of legitimacy at the core of the state.

Speaking during a special Iran International Insight town hall on Wednesday, experts said the scale, persistence and decentralization of the unrest signal a structural rupture between state and society - one repression alone may no longer be able to contain.

In what participants described as one of the harshest security responses in recent years, tens of thousands have been killed, detained or interrogated. Rather than restoring order, panelists argued, the severity of the crackdown underscores mounting anxiety within the leadership about the durability of its authority.

A widening legitimacy gap

Political scientist Mohammad Ghaedi said each protest cycle deepens what he described as a structural legitimacy deficit.

“In democracies, when we ask why leaders should rule, the answer is because they are elected by the nation,” he said. “But if you ask that question of Iranians, there is no clear answer — because 47 years ago, Ayatollah Khomeini deceived the nation.”

According to Ghaedi, the leadership is fully aware of this vulnerability.

“They have to respond in a way that makes the nation unwilling to protest again. That explains the brutality of the repression,” he said.

From mega-triggers to permanent volatility

Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, a senior Iran analyst and Head of Digital at Iran International, said the protest landscape has fundamentally shifted.

“Iranian society has wisely moved from demonstrations triggered by mega-triggers to minor triggers,” he told the panel moderated by Gelareh Hon. “Minor triggers are very difficult for the government to contain because they're not centralized, they're unpredictable and they're emotionally charged.”

Instead of singular catalytic events driving nationwide mobilization, grievances now simmer across economic, social and political spheres — producing recurring, localized flare-ups that strain security forces and steadily erode the state’s ability to project control.

Sharafedin framed the crisis around three central actors: Ali Khamenei, Donald Trump and the Iranian public.

“The social contract between Khamenei and the people has expired,” he said. “Either the Supreme Leader reaches a deal with Trump at the expense of the people, or Trump sides with the people against the Islamic Republic. In both scenarios, Khamenei loses,”

Economic hardship and ideological erosion

Mohammad Machine-Chian, a senior journalist at Iran International and a former researcher at the University of Pittsburgh, argued that the unrest reflects both deep economic distress and mounting ideological rejection.

“Demanding a normal material life is in and of itself a rejection of Khomeinism — the whole ideology of the Islamic Republic, which prescribes abandonment of material life and demands sacrifice for the state” he said.

He cited soaring prices as a daily pressure reshaping public sentiment.

“Inflation is nearly 60%. Food inflation is about 72%. If we go deeper, it gets uglier — cooking oil around 200%, and red meat over 100%. This is the reality people are dealing with.”

Beyond inflation, he said, the regime’s traditional pillars are weakening. The Islamic Republic was historically sustained by an alliance between the bazaar and the mosques — institutions that once anchored its social legitimacy.

“The bazaar is finally breaking completely with the Islamic Republic,” he said. “Mosques now have detention centers. They no longer serve a social or civil purpose in Iranian society.”

Panelists also highlighted what they described as a significant psychological shift within society: foreign assistance, once politically taboo, is now openly debated.

Audience questions addressed policy trade-offs in the United States, concerns in Turkey over possible regional escalation, and the apparent weakening of Tehran’s regional proxy network.

The town hall concluded that the Islamic Republic faces converging pressures — eroded legitimacy, weakened institutions, economic deterioration and a society increasingly detached from the ideological foundations of the state. While repression may buy the leadership time, panelists said it no longer restores authority or rebuilds public consent.

The findings reveal a sharp escalation in repression as authorities increasingly label those who leave Islam as "security threats" and "Mossad mercenaries" following regional conflicts.

The report, titled "Scapegoats" and released on Thursday, documents 254 arrests in 2025, nearly double the number recorded the previous year. Rights advocates say the surge reflects a strategic shift by the Islamic Republic to use national security frameworks to crush religious dissent.

"The Islamic Republic is a religious apartheid state where non-recognized minorities like Christian converts are not considered citizens but just 'ghosts' in the eyes of the regime," said Fred Petrossian, an Iranian-Armenian researcher and journalist specializing in religious minorities, based in Brussels, who collaborates with Article 18.

The study was a collaborative effort by Article 18, Open Doors, Middle East Concern (MEC), and Christian Solidarity Worldwide (CSW).

Regional tensions fuel domestic raids

The report describes the 12-day war with Israel in June 2025 as a "pivotal moment" for domestic targeting. In the single month following the June 24 ceasefire, at least 54 Christians were detained across 19 cities.

Petrossian told Iran International that the state has moved to "choke the freedoms" of converts by framing their faith as an extension of foreign hostility.

"A religious holiday becomes criminalized when it represents both faith and collective identity outside state-approved boundaries," Petrossian said.

He pointed specifically to Christmas, which in recent years has gained wide popularity among ordinary Iranians despite official disapproval from clerics.

Shops in major cities openly sell Christmas trees and decorations, cafés display festive themes, and large crowds, many of them Muslims, gather outside churches such as those in Tehran and Isfahan.

Authorities, however, often respond to private Christmas gatherings of converts with raids, arrests, and intimidation.

Petrossian added that the struggle for Christian freedom in Iran is inseparable from the broader fight for human rights and civil liberties for all citizens.

He said that at least 19 Christians have lost their lives in the recent violence and unrest, reflecting how deeply intertwined religious persecution is with the wider crackdown affecting the Iranian society.

Authorities have increasingly weaponized Article 500 bis of the penal code, which criminalizes "propaganda contrary to the holy religion of Islam". The report found that nearly 90% of all charges against Christians in 2025 were brought under this amended article, which carries sentences of up to 10 years.

Systematic mistreatment in detention

The report paints a horrifying picture of the conditions faced by converts in the Iranian prison system, including psychological torture and the deliberate denial of healthcare.

• Narges Nasri: A pregnant convert sentenced to 16 years in prison on International Women’s Day for her faith and for supporting the "Woman, Life, Freedom" protest movement on social media.
• Aida Najaflou: A convert who fractured her spine in a prison fall and only received surgery after fellow prisoners protested on her behalf. She was later returned to her cell prematurely despite being at risk of paralysis.
• Nasser Navard Gol-Tapeh: A convert in his sixties who suffered a stroke while in solitary confinement and was returned to his cell after just two days of hospital treatment.

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The 'two-tier' propaganda machine

Petrossian pointed to a "two-tier" system where the state uses recognized ethnic Christians, such as those of Armenian or Assyrian descent, to project an image of tolerance while criminalizing the larger community of converts.

While ethnic Christians may worship in their own languages, they are strictly prohibited from preaching in Persian or welcoming converts.

"Recognition does not mean they have all rights," Petrossian said. "The moment members of these communities do not follow the state’s red line, they face repression similar to that experienced by converts."

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has taken an increasing role in these crackdowns, often acting with more brutality than traditional intelligence agencies.

In February, 20 plainclothes IRGC agents raided a gathering in Gatab – a town in Mazandaran province where they reportedly tore cross necklaces off several people and blocked emergency medical personnel from assisting the injured.

"IRGC agents go to homes without a legal warrant and arrest people. They say obscene and offensive things and insult and humiliate them," one convert testified in the report.

Petrossian added that the state’s efforts to control even personal life create a "dystopian system" where religious holidays like Christmas are criminalized because they represent a "collective identity outside state-approved boundaries".

The report concludes by calling on the international community to hold Iran accountable under Article 18 of the ICCPR, which guarantees the freedom to adopt and practice a faith of one's choosing.

Brent crude rose to around $70.50 a barrel after surging more than 4% in the previous session, while US crude climbed above $65, as traders priced in the possibility of supply disruptions from the oil-producing region.

“The balance of risks now tilts to a US strike after market close Friday,” said Michael Every, senior global strategist at Rabobank, adding that any military action could last weeks rather than ending quickly.

European shares also edged 0.1% lower on Thursday after a mixed set of corporate results, with energy stocks rising alongside firmer oil prices as US-Iran tensions kept investors cautious.

Increased US military activity in the region has left markets on edge, despite diplomatic efforts in Geneva this week aimed at narrowing differences over Iran’s nuclear program.

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  Iran and US move forward in talks but tensions linger

Safe-haven demand pushed spot gold up 0.5% to around $5,004 per ounce, after a more than 2% jump the previous day. US gold futures also edged higher.

“If there’s anything fundamental you could point to that would be supporting gold prices, it’s the prospect of conflict in the Middle East and the kind of safe-haven demand that goes along with it,” said Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com.

Gold has also drawn support from expectations that US interest rates could ease later this year, though minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting showed policymakers were in no rush to cut rates and some remained open to further hikes if inflation stays elevated.

Asian equities were mixed, with gains in technology stocks offsetting caution over geopolitics. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.4%, while Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.7%. South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 3% to a record high, buoyed by renewed optimism over artificial intelligence-related shares.

Still, analysts said geopolitical risk was capping broader risk appetite.

“The two nations have long been at loggerheads over Iranian nuclear activity,” one market participant in Asia told Reuters, adding that any disruption to shipping routes or energy infrastructure could ripple through global supply chains.

For now, traders say oil and gold are likely to remain sensitive to headlines from Washington and Tehran, with volatility expected to persist as the prospect of military action looms.

The imagery shows a new facility at the Parchin military complex covered with a concrete shield and soil, while tunnel entrances at the Isfahan nuclear site have been backfilled.

Tunnel access at Natanz and missile bases damaged during last June’s 12‑day conflict with Israel have also been strengthened.

The reconstruction appears designed to address weaknesses exposed during the brief war, when Israeli strikes targeted Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure and Tehran responded with missiles and drones.

The United States held five rounds of negotiations with Iran over its disputed nuclear program last year, for which Trump set a 60-day deadline.

When no agreement was reached by the 61st day on June 13, Israel launched a surprise military offensive, followed by US strikes on June 22 targeting key nuclear facilities in Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow.

The fortification work comes as indirect nuclear talks in Geneva remain unresolved. Iran is preparing a written proposal to address US concerns, while Washington has reinforced its regional military posture, including carrier strike groups and additional naval assets, amid concerns that diplomacy could stall.

The Reuters report said the combination of hardened facilities, ongoing military readiness, and persistent diplomatic negotiations reflects Tehran’s dual strategy of safeguarding strategic infrastructure while keeping open the possibility of a negotiated settlement.

The United States has long insisted that Iran must completely halt its uranium enrichment program, stop supporting its armed allies in the Middle East and accept restrictions on its ballistic missile program.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Monday the United States will never succeed in toppling the Islamic Republic and warned that even the world’s strongest military can suffer crippling blows.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi nonetheless described the talks as positive overall but cautioned that reaching a final agreement would take time. He said both sides agreed to begin drafting potential agreement texts, exchange documents and schedule a third round.

In Tehran, however, many voices sharply criticized what they portrayed as a lack of seriousness on the American side.

The government’s official daily, Iran, accused Washington of “part-time diplomacy,” arguing that the brief visit by US representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner suggested an oversimplified approach to Tehran’s nuclear file.

“That’s the challenge of negotiating with non-diplomatic figures,” the paper wrote in an editorial, adding that if diplomacy is to replace pressure and tension, it must rely on “a clear and durable decision at the highest political levels.”

‘Side job for businessmen’

Commentators linked the criticism in part to the Americans’ decision to leave Geneva for separate negotiations related to the war in Ukraine, contrasting it with Tehran’s readiness for prolonged talks backed by a large expert team.

Reza Nasri, an analyst close to Iran’s foreign ministry, echoed the criticism on X, writing: “Witkoff and Kushner are treating Geneva like a diplomatic fast-food restaurant… Global stability is not fast food. Serious diplomacy requires focus and real intent, not a side job for businessmen.”

The website Nour News, close to senior security official Ali Shamkhani, also questioned Washington’s priorities in an article titled “Where is the real time-wasting?” It argued that accusations of stalling better applied to the US, which it said relied heavily on media optics and insufficiently specialized envoys.

The diplomatic exchanges unfolded amid heightened rhetoric and military signaling. Ahead of the Geneva meeting, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated his hardline stance, invoking a historical Shiite reference to stress resistance to US pressure.

Tehran media also highlighted an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval exercise in the Persian Gulf, describing it as a deterrent message coinciding with nuclear diplomacy.

Iran’s financial markets reacted negatively to the Geneva talks, partly influenced by reports of an increased US military posture in the region. On Wednesday, the Iranian rial weakened again, with the dollar rising nearly 1.2 percent to around 1,630,000 rials.

Risk of talks collapsing

Political analyst Mohammad Soltaninejad cautioned that drafting preliminary texts does not signal a final deal is near.

“Even if agreement is reached on some issues, that does not necessarily mean the US will act accordingly,” he told the news outlet Entekhab.

Soltaninejad said Iran is seeking tangible sanctions relief, while the US may prefer to maintain economic pressure to gain leverage on Tehran’s missile program, raising questions about whether the sides can easily align their economic and security interests.

Another analyst, Mostafa Najafi, said in an online interview that the risk of negotiations collapsing appears higher than scenarios involving even a limited agreement to manage tensions.

Moderate journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi offered a more optimistic assessment, writing on his Telegram channel that the talks still have a chance of success.

He warned, however, that fear of domestic hardliners in Iran or pressure from supporters of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the US could derail a potentially beneficial agreement for both sides.