Revolutionary Guard says June war showed Iran can face Israel, US-led forces alone

Jahanshahi previously served as deputy coordinator of the Army Ground Forces, commander of the 77th Thamen al-Aemeh Division, and deputy for assessment at the central Khatam al-Anbia Headquarters.

The reshuffle, while not officially highlighted by the military, continues a pattern of quiet personnel adjustments across Iran’s armed forces after the war in June.

In early October, the Revolutionary Guards appointed Brigadier General Hojatollah Ghoreishi as its coordinating deputy commander, replacing Mohammadreza Naghdi, who had held the role since 2020. Ghoreishi, a former deputy defense minister, was first referred to by his new title during a visit to Aligoudarz, signaling the formal transition.

“Despite the damage we got on the first day, the situation reached a point where by the sixth day, the US Vice President was seeking negotiations to stop the war,” Ghalibaf told a Tehran even for the Basij, Iran's domestic militia.

“The enemy entered with military action, and we admonished and punished it with military power,” he added. “The enemy acted with full calculations to stop the revolution and disintegrate Iran.”

Vance's office did not immediately respond to an Iran International request for comment.

“Iran targeted the US command headquarters in the region with 14 missiles in less than 24 hours. Anti-missile systems failed to intercept them, and this response halted further attacks,” Ghalibaf added.

Washington engaged in talks with Tehran over its disputed nuclear program earlier this year after giving its Mideast arch-enemy a 60-day ultimatum.

After it expired on June 13, Israel launched a surprise military campaign killing senior nuclear scientists along with hundreds of military personnel and civilians. Iranian counterattacks killed 32 Israeli civilians and an off-duty soldier.

Joining the conflict on the tenth day, the United States attacked three Iranian nuclear sites. The next day Iran responded with missile attacks on a US airbase in Qatar before US President Donald Trump enforced a ceasefire on the twelfth day.

The impasse over Iran's disputed program festers despite Trump's assertion that the US attacks had "obliterated" it.

Iran said on Wednesday that no talks were underway with the United States, rejecting President Donald Trump’s assertion a day earlier that the two sides were in dialogue.

Trump had said the previous day that the United States was talking with Iran and that he believed Tehran wanted a deal “very badly.”

"It’s all about ambiguity. Nuclear hedging is all about the other side not knowing exactly what we have or exactly what our intentions are," Fitzpatrick, an associate fellow with The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told Eye for Iran.

Fitzpatrick, the author of “The Iranian Nuclear Crisis" and former US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Non-Proliferation, spoke after Iran this week rejected a new International Atomic Energy Agency resolution demanding access to its bombed nuclear sites.

US strikes capped off a surprise military campaign against Iran in June and targeted the Natanz, Esfahan and Fordow nuclear sites. Iranian authorities have barred international inspection of the stricken facilities in the months since.

A leaked report from the UN nuclear watchdog says it has lost continuity of knowledge on Iran’s 60 percent enriched uranium stockpile, which had grown to roughly 400 kilograms before the attacks.

Rafael Grossi, head of the agency warned this week that monitoring gaps have become a serious proliferation risk. Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA, Reza Najafi, responded by saying the resolution voided an earlier deal with the nuclear body.

What has actually changed?

Fitzpatrick says none of these developments signal a shift in Iran’s doctrine and that ambiguity may be a deliberate part of Iran's strategy.

“I don’t see any evidence that they’ve given up the desire to have a nuclear option for the future.” He argued Iran remains committed to so-called nuclear hedging, a strategy designed to maintain the capability to produce a weapon quickly while avoiding the political cost of crossing the threshold.

What has changed is Iran’s capacity, as Iran's foreign minister said this week that no enrichment had occurred since the attacks. “We’re not enriching for now because we can’t,” Abbas Araghchi said this week.

Araghchi told The Economist in an interview published on Thursday that Tehran is open to talks with the United States but not on Washington’s terms. “Zero enrichment is impossible ... zero (nuclear) weapons is possible.”

Fitzpatrick believes Iran is now stuck between possible inclination to revive its nuclear capability and desire to avoid renewed attack.

If Tehran tries to recover the buried canisters of 60 percent material or construction accelerates at the sensitive sites, he says Israel will likely strike again. The current drift, Fitzpatrick added, may be a sign of Iran making a bid for time, or "temporizing."

Despite the damage, Fitzpatrick believes the strikes may have strengthened the internal argument for a bomb.

“It probably steels a determination to have an option.”

Regional dynamics add further risk

In Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was in Washington this week he inked a Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement with Washington, which “builds the legal foundation for a decades-long, multi-billion-dollar nuclear energy partnership."

It positions the United States as Saudi Arabia’s “civil nuclear cooperation partner of choice," according to a release by the White House.

White House officials said the partnership would not entail Saudi enrichment, though it adds another nuclear element to the tense Persian Gulf region.

“If Saudi Arabia has an enrichment capability, then not just Iran, but other states in the region will say well we should have it too.”

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any podcast platform of your choosing.

"There's never been a time like this in the Middle East. You have peace in the Middle East now," Trump told Fox News in an interview published on Friday.

"You have Iran, which has been beaten very badly, and their nuclear capability taken away, and they want to make a deal, and we probably will make a deal with Iran. But you have peace for the first time in the Middle East, you have real peace."

Iran has denied seeking a nuclear weapon and has rejected US demands that it end domestic enrichment, rein in its missile program and cut off help for its armed Mideast allies.

Washington engaged in talks with Tehran over its disputed nuclear program earlier this year after giving its Mideast arch-enemy a 60-day ultimatum.

On the 61st day, June 13, Israel launched a surprise military campaign which was capped with US strikes on June 22 targeting key nuclear sites in Esfahan, Natanz and Fordow.

The impasse over the disputed program festers despite Trump's assertion that the US attacks had "obliterated" it.

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'Down to size'

Trump welcomed the de facto leader of Iran's regional rival Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the White House this week, and has several times said his actions in Iran defanged Tehran. He repeatedly said Washington was in dialogue with Tehran in assertions flatly rejected by Iran.

"One year ago. You had nuclear weapons. You had Iran was boasting about how strong they were, you had this is a totally different Middle East right now," Trump added.

"You have countries that want to make peace, as opposed to countries that had no idea of making peace. We've taken a big, dark cloud off of the Middle East by bringing Iran back down to size."

The two-year regional conflagration sparked by Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 was paused by a ceasefire Trump brokered last month, but the truce appears fragile as Israeli air strikes hit Gaza and southern Lebanon this week.

Israel accuses Hamas and Hezbollah, armed allies of Iran on its southern and northern fronts, of seeking to rearm and posing a threat to its forces. The two groups say Israel is violating internationally brokered ceasefires with the attacks.

"You have Hamas, which is has been, you know, beaten very badly," Trump told Fox News. "You have Hezbollah with Lebanon, which is not good, but that's a, you know, relatively small situation, not a good situation, but small."

“The fear of miscalculation and renewed conflict stems, among other things, from the fact that, like Israel, Iran feels that it is under an existential threat,” one of the Western sources said.

Western officials, according to the i24 report, assess that Tehran has prioritized missile reconstruction over accelerating its nuclear program, viewing the project as more urgent for national security. They told the channel that Iran’s new missiles are expected to be less precise because Israel damaged key planetary-mixer infrastructure during the 12-day war.

Iran has concluded it would need a large volume of missiles to overwhelm Israeli defenses, the officials added. The Houthis in Yemen, they also said, may escalate drone launches at Israel.

Satellite analyses published earlier by the Associated Press showed reconstruction work at Iranian missile-production sites struck during the war, though experts told the agency they had not seen signs of large solid-fuel mixers, a crucial component of the program.

The officials also warned that mutual damage in any new confrontation would be severe. “The Iranians know that if they attack, Israel will carry out a wide range of comprehensive attacks,” one said. “The Iranians will bring down skyscrapers in Tel Aviv, and in Tehran there will be great destruction.”

Israeli officials and Western governments have repeatedly referenced the prospect of another round of fighting in recent weeks. An Israeli security official said less than two weeks ago that the military is preparing for a conflict that could last longer than 12 days.

Israel may pursue an attempt at regime change in Iran, the sources told i24, but it is not certain that it will receive American support.