US may target gasoline exports to Iran amid energy crisis

"The determination of Syria’s future and decisions about its destiny must remain in the hands of the Syrian people, without any destructive interference or external imposition," the Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Iran, which was a key ally of Bashar al-Assad, has provided military, financial, and political support to maintain the former Syrian president's grip on power since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. Iran’s backing included sending weapons, financial assistance, military advisors, and elite forces like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as allied militias.

In addition to urging a halt to conflicts, Iran’s statement, which followed the news of Assad fleeing the country, called for the safety of all Syrian citizens, the preservation of religious sites, and the protection of diplomatic and consular missions in accordance with international law.

"Tehran would continue its consultations with key regional stakeholders to promote security and stability in the country," it added.

"The long-standing and friendly relations between the peoples of Iran and Syria are expected to continue with a wise and forward-looking approach, based on shared interests and the fulfillment of international legal commitments," the statement concluded.

Meanwhile, Ahmad Nadri, a member of Iran’s parliament, suggested that the country shift its strategic focus following Assad’s downfall.

He proposed that Iran prioritize nuclear testing and reinvigorate the so-called resistance front, which he views as crucial for Iran’s regional influence post-Syria crisis.

Mohsen Rezaei, a member of the Expediency Council and an IRGC former commander wrote on his X account: "The fate of Syria must be determined by its people. The exploitation of foreign actors will result in nothing but the repetition of the Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq models."

Iran, along with Russia, have tightened their grip on Russia in recent years, both having large swathes of military infrastructure across the country.

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Images published by Al Arabiya show Syrians storming the Iranian embassy Sunday, breaking windows, and damaging furniture, in a sign that Tehran's influence is no longer welcome.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman confirmed to Tehran Times that diplomats and staff had evacuated the embassy before armed forces arrived. Esmail Baghaei said that all personnel were now safe and in good health.

State-affiliated Iranian media have also softened their language in response to Assad’s fall. Before the collapse, opposition forces were regularly referred to as "terrorists" or "takfiris," but now they are being described as "armed opposition groups" or "militias," reflecting a shift in Iran’s public messaging.

Fars News, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported on the reasons behind the fall of Assad's government, saying that “the Syrian president did not pay enough attention to Iran’s advice regarding democracy and popular defense."

"The lack of popular support for the government, due to the dire economic situation, the weakening of the army, and corruption, along with the Syrian government's reliance on promises from foreign powers in exchange for abandoning resistance, are among the key mistakes," the government aligned publication wrote on Sunday.

Nadergholi Ebrahimi, a representative from Arak, and Hamid Rasaee, a representative from Tehran, have called for a closed session of parliament to discuss the situation as Tehran faces losing a key stronghold, the route key between Iran and the Mediterranean.

“The parliament needs updated, accurate, and clear information about the situation in light of the current regional circumstances,” Rasaee said.

Political analyst Rouhollah Rahimpour told Iran International that there appears to be no comprehensive or systematic analysis of the situation in Syria within Iran’s media.

“Some media outlets consider this a victory for Israel, while others view it as an internal Syrian matter,” he noted.

According to Rahimpour, Iran's internal calculations regarding Syria have been so disrupted by the recent developments that the government is struggling to form a clear stance on its position.

Costs of supporting Assad

The Islamic Republic’s support for Assad has come at a high cost. Human losses include over 2,100 Iranian forces killed in Syria, referred to as “Defenders of the Shrine,” and an estimated 7,308 Iranian casualties overall since 2011 when the crackdown on anti-Assad demonstrations turned into a civil war.

Financially, the cost of intervention is staggering. Former Iranian parliament members Heshamatollah Falahatpisheh and Bahram Parsaei have separately stated that Iran spent at least $30 billion in Syria, a figure that dwarfs other regional expenditures. This amount equals nearly 140 months of cash subsidies for Iran’s entire population, further fueling domestic frustration over the government’s priorities. However, a government document hacked last year revealed that Syria owes Iran $ 50 billion.

In addition to free oil supplies and loans to Assad's government, the Islamic Republic spent untold billions on its military involvement.

Internationally, Assad’s fall is seen as a significant blow to Tehran. A US official told CNN that the events in Syria mark the collapse of Iran’s broader strategy in the region. President-elect Donald Trump weighed in, suggesting that Assad fled after losing Russian support, framing both Russia and Iran as weakened powers.

The Israeli military announced a deployment in the UN-monitored buffer zone with Syria, emphasizing a defensive posture without direct involvement in Syrian affairs. Meanwhile, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called for a new Syria that does not pose a threat to its neighbors.

Since 2013, Iran’s presence in Syria has been justified by officials as a mission to protect Shia holy sites from Takfiri groups. However, evidence shows Tehran’s true aim was to bolster Assad’s government, a key ally.

IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency admitted in 2020 that the Quds Force had been instrumental in training Syrian forces to suppress opposition, leveraging tactics used during Iran’s own protests.

The Islamic Republic’s involvement also included the recruitment of foreign fighters, such as the Fatemiyoun Division (Afghans) and Zainabiyoun Brigade (Pakistanis).

With Assad’s government now toppled, the Islamic Republic’s decades-long gamble in Syria appears increasingly costly, both financially and politically, as questions mount about its influence in the region and its ability to sustain its ambitions.

“Of course, he will once again pursue his maximum pressure [campaign] against Iran,” Boulos told the French outlet Le Point, adding that Trump will be open to diplomacy alongside his firm approach.

“[He] is very clear that he absolutely does not want Iran to have a nuclear program,” he said, and would be “ready to run serious negotiations” with Tehran to achieve that goal.

Trump in his first term followed a range of measures to weaken Iran’s economy and curb its regional influence. He withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal with Tehran but did not initiate talks that would lead to another agreement.

During his 2024 election campaign, Trump struck a diplomatic tone, saying he did not intend to harm Iran if his red line was not crossed.

“My terms are very easy. Iran can't have nuclear weapons” he said, casting his vote. “I’d like them to be a very successful country,” without going into details of his plans for US-Iran relations.

The relationship between Washington and Tehran remains deeply strained, marked by proxy conflicts across the Middle East. Both sides have traded accusations of fueling instability, further complicating any diplomatic overture.

The ongoing hostility has not made Trump consider regime change in Iran however, according to his senior adviser Boulos.

“He did not talk about regime change but only about a nuclear agreement,” Boulos told Le Point referring to his conversations with the president-elect.

Boulos is a Lebanese-American businessman and the father-in-law of Trump's daughter Tiffany. He may prove to be an important player in shaping the incoming US administrations’ policy in that region.

His appointment adds another voice deeply skeptical of Iran to a foreign policy team deeply supportive of the Islamic Republic's arch-foe Israel.

"In case of a snapback reinstatement, one of the options we proposed was withdrawing from the NPT ... we could leave the treaty," deputy foreign minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi was quoted as saying by a parliamentary spokesman on Tuesday.

The remarks followed Takht-Ravanchi's discussions in Geneva with representatives from the UK, France, and Germany — the three European signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

"We did not negotiate in Geneva because we had no text, and there was no text to negotiate on," Takht-Ravanchi said.

The Geneva talks were held in the wake of a controversial resolution passed by the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Board of Governors, which calls for a report on Iran’s nuclear program and its lack of full cooperation with the IAEA by spring 2024.

This resolution could trigger the activation of the snapback mechanism, a provision within the JCPOA that would automatically restore international sanctions on Iran and potentially bring the country under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter.

The resolution, marking the second such action against Iran in two years, has prompted Iran to announce it will activate new and advanced centrifuges as a retaliatory measure.

"Unfortunately, our enemies have made Iran’s nuclear file very complicated and politicized," said Behrooz Kamalvandi, spokesperson for Iran's Atomic Energy Organization.

The breakdown in negotiations between Iran and the three European countries reflects broader diplomatic tensions. Efforts to revive the JCPOA, which collapsed after the United States withdrew under President Donald Trump in 2018, have stalled under Presidents Hassan Rouhani and Ebrahim Raisi.

"We have no intention of negotiating with Washington at this time, as there is no basis for such talks," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said recently, adding that Iran would reassess its approach once the new US administration’s policies become clearer.

However, some within President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration have shown interest in potential talks with the United States, particularly those aligned with the more moderate camp.

Among them, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Pezeshkian's strategic deputy, wrote in an article in Foreign Affairs magazine that Trump should pursue an agreement that benefits both sides.

“The West needs a more constructive approach—one that takes advantage of Iran’s hard-earned confidence, accepts Iran as an integral part of regional stability, and seeks collaborative solutions to shared challenges," he wrote. "Such shared challenges could even prompt Tehran and Washington to engage in conflict management rather than exponential escalation.”

Compared to the same date last year, when the dollar was valued at 504,000 rials, the current rate represents a staggering 43% rise.

The rial began trading at 716,000 to the dollar on Wednesday morning but surged to nearly 720,000 rials by noon. Tether, which is an equivalent of US dollar in crypto markets, was being traded at 726,000 rials on the same day.

One notable shock to the currency market came on November 6, when the dollar initially jumped past 700,000 rials following the news of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections. But the currency began it decline in September after serious blows by Israel against Iran's main regional proxy, Hezbollah and an Israeli air strike that destroyed most of Iran's air defenses.

However, authorities temporarily stabilized the rate below that threshold, most likely by selling foreign currencies to support the rial. The downward trend resumed later that month after the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board of Governors issued a resolution critical of Tehran for its nuclear program which has breached international regulations, producing 60% enriched uranium as Iran edges ever closer to nuclear weapons capability.

The rial has faced significant volatility throughout the year, influenced by volatility in the region and direct conflict between Iran and Israel.

Iran’s reliance on oil and gas exports for foreign currency earnings has made the country particularly vulnerable to international sanctions. Under Joe Biden’s presidency, sanctions enforcement eased somewhat, offering Tehran a lifeline. But the return of Donald Trump to the White House, combined with Europe’s increasingly tough stance to crack down on Iran's nuclear program, foreshadows greater economic strain for the Islamic Republic.

Inflation in Iran already exceeds 40%, and the rial’s devaluation will exacerbate price hikes, further eroding the purchasing power of ordinary Iranians.

Tens of millions have faced declining living standards over the past five years, with wages lagging behind inflation and around one third of the population now living below the poverty line.

The average worker now earns the equivalent of less than $200 per month, while official data suggests that $500 is the bare minimum required to meet basic needs.

As the dollar’s rise continues, the impact on daily life for Iranians grows more severe. Essential goods and services, already out of reach for many, are likely to see further price increases, deepening economic hardship and fueling public discontent.

At the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (COP16) in Riyadh, Iran’s Minister of Agriculture, Gholamreza Nouri, outlined progress made during bilateral talks.

"We laid the groundwork for developing infrastructure in natural resources, the environment, and agriculture between Iran and Saudi Arabia," Nouri said.

His remarks mark a significant development in the rapprochement fostered by the 2023 China-brokered agreement between the two nations.

Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Iran in 2016 after its embassy in Tehran was stormed during a dispute over Riyadh's execution of a Shiite Muslim cleric.

Tensions escalated further with subsequent conflicts, including missile and drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities and tankers in the Persian Gulf, attributed to Iran-backed Houthi forces, amidst a nearly decade-long war.

Saudi-Iranian relations have improved following the Beijing Agreement, with both countries exploring areas of mutual interest. Yet, trade between the two remains limited. Iranian officials have expressed an ambition to boost bilateral trade to $1 billion annually, a stark contrast to the negligible trade volumes recorded in recent years.

Flights resume amid warming relations

In a further sign of thawing ties, Iran Air resumed flights between Mashhad and Dammam after a nine-year hiatus.

"A deputy from Iran’s embassy, the representative of Iran Air, and representatives from Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation welcomed arriving passengers in Dammam and stressed the need to facilitate the movement of people between the two countries," ISNA said.

While economic and environmental collaboration are key goals, the rekindling of relations is also part of a broader geopolitical calculus, Saudi and its Persian Gulf neighbor, the United Arab Emirates, working on backdoor diplomacy to reduce the military actions of Iran in the region and curtail its allies across the area.

Last week, Bloomberg reported that Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the de facto Saudi ruler, made an offer of increased trade to Iranian officials in recent weeks in the hope of ratcheting down tension with the West.

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Despite progress, challenges remain since the rekindled ties between the two countries, including the ongoing Yemeni Houthis' blockade of the Red Sea region since the war in Gaza.

David Ottaway from the Wilson Centre wrote in March that at an emergency summit of the 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation and Arab League held in Riyadh on November 12 last year, Saudi Arabia managed to quash Iranian efforts to mobilize military support for Hamas in its war with Israel.

The meeting also managed to stall pressure on the six Arab states that now have diplomatic ties with the Jewish state—Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco—to cut them. After the Gaza war, talks to normalize relations between Saudi and Israel which progressed into the public domain, have also been stalled, a move which will please Tehran.

Iran's former President Ebrahim Raisi and bin Salman (MBS) met during the summit to discuss various possible areas for cooperation, including Saudi investment in Iran’s sanctions-hobbled economy.

It was here that bin Salman allegedly warned Raisi that Iran "would have to rein in the activities of its regional Arab allies and proxies as the quid pro quo for any Saudi financial or economic aid", Ottaway said.