Iran imposes gasoline restriction amid potential Israeli retaliation

Bennet slammed US President Joe Biden who has called for a “proportionate” response to the attack as the administration continues its policy of appeasement.

"President Biden has said that Israel can retaliate against Iran, but must keep the response 'proportionate'. The president also urged Israel not to attack Iran’s nuclear program,” he wrote on X.

He called for Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear program, its leadership and Iran’s main economic interests such as energy, arguing that the Islamic Republic has not only twice attacked Israel this year, but has helped hundreds of other attacks by its proxies.

“All of these would be only a fraction of what Iran did to Israel. So indeed it won’t be “proportional”, it’ll be much less,” he said, calling to bring down the Islamic Republic before it acquires nuclear weapons.

“This will take some time, but this week’s response must start this process,” he said. “If we don’t take out the nuclear program now, I don’t know we’ll ever do it. The mullah regime has acquired SQ10, which means enough high grade uranium to produce 10 nuclear bombs. The regime is racing towards producing the detonator device itself, while the world can no longer really track this,” he warned.

Earlier this year, the UN’s nuclear chief, Rafael Grossi, also warned that Iran is “weeks not months” away from a nuclear weapon while the country continues to bar at least one third of the UN’s inspectors.

“We might wake up to a test bomb exploding in Iran’s desert. At that moment the Middle East will become a nuclear nightmare. We have the justification and the ability. It’s time to act now,” Bennett added.

On the eve of October 7, when Iran-backed Hamas invaded Israel, Bennett also highlighted the wide reach of Iran’s proxies which have been armed and trained by Iran sitting across Israel’s borders and beyond.

Since October 7, Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen have all launched attacks on Israel in allegiance with Hamas in Gaza.

“Iran has been terrorizing Israelis for over 30 years. It sent its terror-octopus tentacles —Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and more to surround and attack Israel. Iran’s regime funded, trained and armed these savage terrorists,” Bennett said.

Hezbollah alone, Iran’s largest proxy, has sent over 8,000 projectiles towards Israel since October 8. Since then, at least 63,000 Israelis have been displaced and tens of thousands more Lebanese displaced in Hezbollah-controlled southern Lebanon.

Israel has since launched a ground invasion in recent days into southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's terror network including tunnels, weapons storage and launchers, in a bid to push back the group designated by countries including the US and Europe, as it tries to send its citizens home.

“A few days ago Iran directly shot 190 ballistic missiles to Israel, including city centers such as Tel Aviv. In April Iran lobbed some 350 projectiles towards Israel. Without Israel’s remarkable technology these missiles could have killed thousands of innocent people,” Bennett pointed out.

In April, Iran launched its first direct attack on Israel following an alleged Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus which killed a senior Quds Force commander and multiple high ranking IRGC officials.

“So what would be a proportionate response? For Israel to murder, rape and burn thousands of innocent Iranians? We don’t do that,” Bennett added. “For Israel to shoot 10,000 rockets indiscriminately on Iranian cities? We don’t do that either. Therefore, Israel can do much less than what Iran’s regime did to us.”

Gabriel Noronha, the US State Department’s former Iran advisor, told Iran International: “A lot of what’s going to happen in Israel’s response is messaging to Iran on its nuclear program.

“Israel’s response to the April attack was a pinprick attack to an Iranian site, sending the message that there is the capability to hit these sites,” he said, Israel’s retaliation to the inaugural aerial bombardment in April hitting military sites including four small nuclear research facilities and the nearby Natanz uranium enrichment site.

Last week’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an underground intelligence headquarters, “said Israel can hit depth, no matter how deep the bunker is,” said Noronha.

“My theory is in this case that Israel is doing a layered response, hitting a lot of Iran’s missile supply chain, warehouses, factories, oil infrastructure, maybe a refinery, but I think they will leave room to be able to escalate further. I suspect they’ll hit something like a centrifuge assembly factory.”

In June, the UN said that "while the [nuclear] Agency had not been able to verify the total stockpile of enriched uranium in the country since February 2021, it estimated that Iran maintains a total enriched uranium stockpile 30 times the amount allowable under the Plan of Action — including increased quantities of uranium enriched to 20 percent and 60 percent."

While the UN continues to urge Iran to readmit inspectors barred from the country, its nuclear chief says the chances are now unlikely.

Speaking in New York on the sidelines of the UN’s General Assembly, Rafael Grossi said: ”Unfortunately this ship has sailed.”

On Sunday, October 6, the rial was trading at 630,000 to the US dollar, down from 592,000 on September 20, when Hezbollah began experiencing mass casualties from exploding pagers and walkie-talkies. This was followed by an Israeli airstrike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, prompting Iran to launch a massive ballistic missile attack on Israel. Israel's subsequent threat of retaliation has left Iran on edge, further weakening its already battered currency.

Gold prices also rose in Tehran in tandem with a rising dollar and other major currencies.

An Israeli attack could target Iran’s energy sector, potentially causing domestic chaos and a significant reduction in oil exports—the financial lifeline of Tehran's Islamic government.

Iranians are concerned about a potential Israeli attack, although it seems targets will be mainly military and political. An attack on Iran's refineries could lead to serious difficulties as the winter approaches.

Since 2018, when the US withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal and imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and international banking, the rial has lost 15 times its value. In the past three years alone, it has depreciated by more than 50%.

This sharp devaluation has coincided with soaring inflation, now hovering between 40-50%, pushing tens of millions of Iranians into poverty and creating a potentially volatile public mood.

The Iranian government has been quietly signaling an interest in new negotiations with the West this month to reduce sanctions, but so far, the US and its European allies maintain that only a genuine change in behavior will lead to talks."

An IRGC source told Tasnim News "if Israel takes any steps, there will be no hesitation in carrying out Iran's retaliatory strike," adding that several types of counterattacks are ready to be executed depending on the nature of Israel's retaliation.

Last week, Iran launched two waves of ballistic missiles towards the Jewish state, the second direct attack on Israel this year as aggression between the two archenemies escalates to crisis levels.

Tehran-based Hamshahri newspaper, understood to be reflective of the sentiment of the hardline faction in Iran, on Sunday outlined Iran's potential targets in the event of an escalation. Among the 35 strategic locations named in the newspaper’s infographic are critical infrastructure and military facilities in Israel, understood to be part of the government's messaging to its nemesis.

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Key targets identified include the Hagit Combined Cycle Power Plant and the Orot Rabin Power Plant in Haifa, both essential to Israel's energy grid. Additionally, the Bazian Oil Refinery, Israel’s largest, and the Ashdod Oil Refinery, the second-largest, are highlighted as vital points in the country’s energy production and distribution.

Israel's gas infrastructure was also cited, with the Tamar Gas Field and the Leviathan Gas Field listed as potential targets. These facilities play a major role in Israel’s domestic energy needs and export capacity, and any disruption would significantly impact the economy.

Military sites are also among the targets, including Nevatim Air Base and Ramat David Air Base, crucial for Israel’s air defense. Civilian locations such as Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv and Ramon Airport in Eilat are also on the list.

A BBC report on Wednesday also noted that Iran's next volley of missiles could shift focus from military bases to Israeli residential areas. The report further highlighted that Iran's IRGC Navy, with its fast missile boats, could attempt to sow mines in the Strait of Hormuz, interrupting the flow of up to 20% of the world’s daily oil exports, or launch swarm attacks on US Navy vessels. Additionally, US military bases scattered throughout the region are also potentially vulnerable to Iranian strikes, according to the report.

Last week's attack caused damage in various parts of Israel, including at airbases. The Israeli military reported that despite the damage, no aircraft or critical infrastructure were hit, and the Israeli Air Force continues to operate at full capacity.

Israel is yet to respond to Tuesday’s attacks, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu having vowed retaliation for Iran's missile strike, saying Tehran would "pay for it."

The US, a critical ally, has called for a "proportionate" response as Israel weighs its options.

Iran’s security agencies have threatened labor activists and the families of Tabas coal miners for sharing information about the miners and the conditions at the Tabas mine, Iran International has learned.

Activists on social media have also been coerced into deleting their posts related to the disaster.

The explosion, which occurred on September 21, was caused by a methane gas leak deep within the mine according to state TV. Rescue operations were hampered by high levels of methane gas, with many miners trapped in Block B, where conditions were particularly hazardous.

On Saturday, Ali Nesa'i Zahan, the prosecutor of South Khorasan Province and lead investigator in the case, confirmed that "negligence regarding the lack of safety at this mine has been established, and this failure is attributed to the mine's officials," as reported by the state-run ISNA.

He added that the investigation is ongoing, with the next step being to assess the degree of negligence and identify "which individual or individuals are responsible," with the findings to be submitted in writing to the judge.

"Ultimately, those found responsible will be summoned to the court and held accountable," he said, noting that sharing images or other details of suspects during the investigation is prohibited.

A day after the disaster, Iran's attorney general, Mohammad Movahedi Azad, warned that “no entity is permitted to comment on potential negligence until a final verdict is issued by the investigating judge.”

The Islamic Republic's suppression of information about the Tabas explosion is part of a broader pattern of limiting public discourse on sensitive issues within the country.

Iranian authorities have frequently used intimidation tactics to silence families and activists. Families of the victims of Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752, which was shot down by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on January 8, 2020, also faced threats, including murder and torture, aimed at preventing them from speaking out.

Likewise, in 2023, Amnesty International highlighted the Iranian government's campaign of harassment against the families of those killed during the 2022 Woman Life Freedom uprising “preventing them from demanding justice.”

This summer, Iran faced a 20,000-megawatt electricity deficit, equivalent to 25% of the country's electricity demand. Unlike previous years, Iran experienced a gas shortage alongside the electricity deficit. As a result, the consumption of fuel oil (mazut) in Iran's power plants doubled, and diesel consumption increased by 80%.

Altogether, these two polluting fuels accounted for 15% of the power plants' fuel supply. With the onset of autumn, this share has risen to 25%, and in winter, it's expected that half of the fuel used in power plants will be fuel oil and diesel, requiring the consumption of 150 million liters of liquid fuel per day in this sector.

Meanwhile, data from the Ministry of Oil shows that the country's reserves of diesel and fuel oil amount to only 1.5 billion liters. Even if no diesel or fuel oil is provided to industries or land and sea transportation, this quantity would only suffice for 10 days' worth of electricity production.

In recent years, Iran has faced a growing gasoline crisis, with average daily consumption reaching 124 million liters (nearly 33 million gallons). This winter, a severe natural gas shortage is expected to halt the supply of 20 million cubic meters of CNG daily, pushing gasoline consumption to nearly 140 million liters. However, data from the Ministry of Oil shows that the country’s strategic gasoline reserves are barely one billion liters—enough to cover just one week of domestic demand.

If Israel targets just two of Iran's refineries—such as the Persian Gulf Star and Abadan refineries—30% of the country's liquid fuel production capacity, or 800,000 barrels per day, would be lost.

A quarter of the government's budget is allocated to subsidies, which range from monthly cash handouts to heavily subsidized fuel, bread, and other essentials. These subsidies are primarily funded by the domestic and international sale of petroleum products. According to the Supreme Audit Court of Iran, in the first five months of the current fiscal year (starting March 20), the government borrowed 800 trillion rials ($1.3 billion) to cover subsidies—an amount equivalent to one-fourth of the total subsidy expenditure.

The reason for this borrowing is the sharp decline in petroleum product exports due to the significant rise in power plants' demand for fuel oil and diesel, caused by the natural gas shortage. This has resulted in a severe drop in the financial resources for subsidies.

Half of Iran's population lives in poverty, with their livelihoods dependent on government subsidies. If the country’s refineries are attacked, the government will essentially be unable to continue providing subsidies to the people.

Iran is already grappling with an inflation rate exceeding 40%, and the elimination of subsidies and a surge in fuel prices would trigger hyperinflation.

This summer, due to the electricity shortage, Iran's steel production and exports, which account for 16% of the country's non-oil exports, sharply declined. It is expected that this winter, the production of petrochemical products, which make up 30% of non-oil exports, will also drop significantly due to the severe gas shortage.

Iran's winter gas shortage is projected to reach 250 million cubic meters per day, accounting for 25% of the country’s total gas demand. If oil refineries are attacked, the government could lose its ability to supply fuel to power plants, exacerbating the energy crisis.

Crude oil revenues would also be severely impacted in case of an attack on Iran’s production infrastructure. Despite a significant rise in the country's oil exports, only 74% of the government’s oil revenue target has been met in the first five months of the current fiscal year. Even if only the Kharg oil terminal is attacked, Iran would lose 90% of its oil export capacity.

Last year, Iran's oil and petroleum product exports totaled $36 billion, which accounted for 8% of the country's total GDP and nine months of the government's general budget.