Syrian rebels capture Hama in fresh blow to Iran-led axis

Since September, Israel has targeted large portions of the group’s infrastructure, including weapons storage and production facilities, rocket launch sites, and key leadership figures. Among those killed in a series of precision airstrikes was long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah.

However, according to Reuters, US intelligence has shown that the group, designated a terrorist organization by countries such as the US and UK and others, has begun to rebuild, recruiting new fighters, rearming through domestic production and smuggling through Syria.

As Syria now faces domestic turmoil with the civil war rearing its head once more, that smuggling route is being ever more guarded by Iran, Hezbollah’s sponsor, which is sending fighters from Iraq and Afghanistan to push back opposition forces trying to dislodge Iran's ally Bashar al-Assad.

Syria has long been a pivotal route for Iran to fund and arm Hezbollah. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Forces (IRGC) also have outposts there. According to Arabic journal Al Majalla, Iran has 55 military bases in Syria and 515 other military points.

The Israeli military has said it is just 13 bases but says Iran has "appropriated Syrian defense assets". The Atlantic Council also cites camps which are essential to the IRGC such as Damascus International Airport, al-Tayfour Airport, Azraa Base, Sayeda Zeinab Base, al-Kaswa Camp, Zabadani Camp, and al-Qusayr Camp.

Amid a 60-day ceasefire brokered by the US and France, Hezbollah is prohibited from procuring weapons or parts, but ongoing activity has seen Israel carry out multiple air strikes on what it has called “terrorist infrastructure” amid the ceasefire, in which both sides have claimed multiple violations. On Monday, Hezbollah fired two rockets into Israel in what it called a "warning" amid tit-for-tat violations.

With a capacity estimated between 130,000 and 150,000 rockets, Hezbollah has been long ready for a prolonged conflict with its adversary, Israel.

Hezbollah will not struggle to find new recruits. At a memorial for slain leader Hassan Nasrallah, thousands came out to mourn the fallen leader, with much of the Shia population still dedicated to the group’s ‘cause’.

Nevertheless, Hanin Ghaddar from the Washington Institute has said that unlike in 2006, after the second Lebanon war, Hezbollah is at its weakest point and cannot afford to go back to war.

“Its strategy at the moment is to lay low and try to recover, which it seems to view as a multistage process,” she said, speaking on The Policy Forum on Monday.

“Hezbollah will presumably decry the Lebanese Army for allowing Israel to continue conducting airstrikes after the ceasefire with no response. Arguing that the weapons of the 'resistance' are Lebanon’s only means of fighting back against Israel, the group will push the next government to re-legitimize its possession of military arms by adopting the same loaded phrase that has appeared in past ministerial statements—namely, that Lebanon’s security is based on ‘the army, the people, and the resistance’.”

She says that Hezbollah has lost credibility, deterrence, most of its strategic weapons and commanders, and any semblance of its past victory narrative.

Unlike in 2006, money to fund Hezbollah is also not as readily available, Iran squashed by heavy global sanctions and a financial crisis. “This time, money is not as abundant in Iran, and the [Persian] Gulf states will no longer help [Lebanon] if Hezbollah is still in the picture. The group’s senior commander losses might also affect its role as Iran’s main proxy arm in the region,” she added, saying that Hezbollah has become a liability for Lebanon.

Matthew Levitt, also from the Washington Institute, said the ceasefire now presents new challenges for Tehran. “Hezbollah’s loss of so many strategic assets is a loss for Iran,” he said, speaking in The Policy Forum on Monday.

“Beyond near-term ceasefire diplomacy, the next [US] administration will need to lead an international effort to frustrate Iran’s efforts to rearm and re-fund its proxies. The international community can no longer sit back and consider the region calm when ceasefires take hold and Iran keeps arming terrorist groups to the teeth. The events of the past year—and again in Syria this past week—are proof of this logical fallacy,” he added.

Aware of the capacity to regroup, he said that getting to the route of the problem with Hezbollah requires addressing Iran.

“America’s core allies, including Israel, understand that degrading the capabilities of armed groups is no longer enough. Ultimately, they must address the threats posed by Iran, the malign actor who sponsors so many of these groups,” he said.

The tremors were part of a seismic cluster affecting Izeh, Lali, Haftkel, and Masjed Soleyman. Khuzestan is the main oil producing region of Iran.

The first earthquake, recorded at 5.6 magnitude, hit Haftkel at 7:32 a.m. local time at a depth of 10 kilometers, according to the University of Tehran’s Institute of Geophysics.

The German Research Centre for Geosciences reported the quake as a 5.7 magnitude.

A second quake, measured at 4.8 magnitude, followed 21 minutes later in Masjed Soleyman. Officials reported 12 earthquakes in the region, with aftershocks ranging from 3.2 to 3.5 magnitude.

“In total, 16 people have been injured. Except for one individual with a broken leg, all were treated on an outpatient basis,” Mohammad Hossein Sarmast, head of Ahvaz University of Medical Sciences, told local media.

Authorities highlighted water, electricity, and gas disruptions in Masjed Soleyman, where 33 homes suffered structural damage. Ali Abdollahi, Director General of Crisis Management for Khuzestan Governorate, reported natural gas outages in parts of Masjed Soleyman, alongside the closure of roads to two villages and gas network disruptions.

Aerial assessments of mountainous areas are underway to evaluate the damage, said Aref Sharhani, spokesperson for Khuzestan Emergency Center.

Masjed Soleyman Governor Peyman Molaei added that emergency teams and the Red Crescent have been deployed to assist affected areas.

The tremors were felt in cities including Ahvaz, Shushtar, and Hamidiyeh. While emergency responders reported no fatalities, the recurring seismic activity highlights the region's vulnerability.

In the early hours of November 10, a 4.1-magnitude earthquake struck Qaleh-ye Khvajeh County and parts of Khuzestan Province.

On October 4, another earthquake measuring 5.7 occurred in Chelgerd, on the border of Khuzestan and Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari provinces, damaging houses in 270 villages and 107 schools across the two provinces.

Officials from the Ministry of Oil and the Ministry of Energy announced that the Karun River dam chain in Khuzestan Province sustained no damage during the earthquakes on Thursday and there were no disruptions to operations in the oil regions.

Iran, which sits on major fault lines, experiences frequent earthquakes. Notable examples include the devastating 2003 Bam earthquake, which killed tens of thousands, and a 5.9-magnitude tremor in Khoy in 2022, leaving three dead and injuring over 800.

The United Nations estimates that Iran experiences an average of 10,000 earthquakes annually, making robust disaster management efforts crucial in this seismically active region.

“Of course, he will once again pursue his maximum pressure [campaign] against Iran,” Boulos told the French outlet Le Point, adding that Trump will be open to diplomacy alongside his firm approach.

“[He] is very clear that he absolutely does not want Iran to have a nuclear program,” he said, and would be “ready to run serious negotiations” with Tehran to achieve that goal.

Trump in his first term followed a range of measures to weaken Iran’s economy and curb its regional influence. He withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal with Tehran but did not initiate talks that would lead to another agreement.

During his 2024 election campaign, Trump struck a diplomatic tone, saying he did not intend to harm Iran if his red line was not crossed.

“My terms are very easy. Iran can't have nuclear weapons” he said, casting his vote. “I’d like them to be a very successful country,” without going into details of his plans for US-Iran relations.

The relationship between Washington and Tehran remains deeply strained, marked by proxy conflicts across the Middle East. Both sides have traded accusations of fueling instability, further complicating any diplomatic overture.

The ongoing hostility has not made Trump consider regime change in Iran however, according to his senior adviser Boulos.

“He did not talk about regime change but only about a nuclear agreement,” Boulos told Le Point referring to his conversations with the president-elect.

Boulos is a Lebanese-American businessman and the father-in-law of Trump's daughter Tiffany. He may prove to be an important player in shaping the incoming US administrations’ policy in that region.

His appointment adds another voice deeply skeptical of Iran to a foreign policy team deeply supportive of the Islamic Republic's arch-foe Israel.

"In case of a snapback reinstatement, one of the options we proposed was withdrawing from the NPT ... we could leave the treaty," deputy foreign minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi was quoted as saying by a parliamentary spokesman on Tuesday.

The remarks followed Takht-Ravanchi's discussions in Geneva with representatives from the UK, France, and Germany — the three European signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

"We did not negotiate in Geneva because we had no text, and there was no text to negotiate on," Takht-Ravanchi said.

The Geneva talks were held in the wake of a controversial resolution passed by the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Board of Governors, which calls for a report on Iran’s nuclear program and its lack of full cooperation with the IAEA by spring 2024.

This resolution could trigger the activation of the snapback mechanism, a provision within the JCPOA that would automatically restore international sanctions on Iran and potentially bring the country under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter.

The resolution, marking the second such action against Iran in two years, has prompted Iran to announce it will activate new and advanced centrifuges as a retaliatory measure.

"Unfortunately, our enemies have made Iran’s nuclear file very complicated and politicized," said Behrooz Kamalvandi, spokesperson for Iran's Atomic Energy Organization.

The breakdown in negotiations between Iran and the three European countries reflects broader diplomatic tensions. Efforts to revive the JCPOA, which collapsed after the United States withdrew under President Donald Trump in 2018, have stalled under Presidents Hassan Rouhani and Ebrahim Raisi.

"We have no intention of negotiating with Washington at this time, as there is no basis for such talks," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said recently, adding that Iran would reassess its approach once the new US administration’s policies become clearer.

However, some within President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration have shown interest in potential talks with the United States, particularly those aligned with the more moderate camp.

Among them, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Pezeshkian's strategic deputy, wrote in an article in Foreign Affairs magazine that Trump should pursue an agreement that benefits both sides.

“The West needs a more constructive approach—one that takes advantage of Iran’s hard-earned confidence, accepts Iran as an integral part of regional stability, and seeks collaborative solutions to shared challenges," he wrote. "Such shared challenges could even prompt Tehran and Washington to engage in conflict management rather than exponential escalation.”

The incident took place at 02:30 pm (local time) in a mountainous area near the city of Firouzabad, almost 80 miles (130 km) south of Shiraz, according to Vahid Shabani, the Director-General of Security and Law Enforcement in Fars Province.

Iran's state TV identified the deceased pilots as Col. Hamid Reza Ranjbar and Col. Manouchehr Pirzadeh, saying they were on a test flight after the plane was overhauled.

Iranian media have not provided further details on the type of plane or the cause for the crash.

Fars News released a video that showed columns of white smoke billowing from the remains of the aircraft.

A veteran Iranian fighter jet pilot says sanctions on the country are the main reason for the high number of military aviation accidents and casualties among air force pilots.

Brigadier General Kioumars Heidarian, a retired pilot who underwent training in the US state of Texas and flew fighter jets for Iran’s air force both before and after the 1979 revolution, said in 2022 that if Iran could procure better aircraft equipment, it could reduce the number the accidents.

“Accidents happen everywhere, and no one in the world has managed to decrease the number of accidents to zero, but if the equipment is complete, it is natural that the number of accidents will be fewer,” he said.