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Pezeshkian: A president lacking media leverage and messaging tools

Sep 4, 2024, 17:12 GMT+1Updated: 15:58 GMT+0
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during his first interview on the state broadcaster
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during his first interview on the state broadcaster

The Pezeshkian administration's relationship with the media seems to be the weakest link in its efforts to connect with the Iranian public—a link that appears to have been broken from the very beginning.

When Pezeshkian assumed office in late July, some observers hoped for shifts in the media landscape that would provide the new president with greater influence over public opinion.

Throughout the presidential campaign, Pezeshkian’s supporters frequently claimed that state TV’s coverage was biased in favor of his political rival, Saeed Jalili, whose brother oversees the network. When Pezeshkian participated in his first televised interview following the election, his supporters once again criticized the state TV presenters, accusing them of asking questions that reflected Jalili’s agenda rather than addressing the concerns of the nation.

Some observers suggested that Pezeshkian should have allowed the public to submit their questions via social media, which could then be passed on to the TV presenters. Instead, the two state TV hosts repeated the same questions from the campaign debates, seemingly in an attempt to suggest that Pezeshkian had nothing new to offer. However, in fairness to state TV, it’s worth noting that Pezeshkian does have a tendency to speak repetitively.

Centrist website Entekhab also suggested that the state TV does not represent public opinion. It also pointed out that the state TV's questions were too general, too dull and too insignificant. It also suggested that Pezeshkian should have invited independent journalists to ask questions that matter to the people.

Pezeshkian not only appears to be excluded from utilizing state TV as a vital link to the nation but is also hindered by Iran Daily, the administration’s official newspaper. Journalists in Tehran have noted that individuals appointed by Jalili's team during former President Raisi’s tenure remain in place, continuing to push their previous agenda, which works against Pezeshkian's efforts.

While state TV and Iran newspaper remain unable to advance Pezeshkian's messaging, his two spokespersons have also struggled to make an impact. Elias Hazrati, his news dissemination officer and the managing editor of the reformist Etemad newspaper, has faced criticism from journalists and others for accepting the role, raising questions about his alignment and effectiveness. As a result, Pezeshkian’s administration faces significant obstacles in effectively communicating its message to the public.

Iranian journalist Zeynab Esmaeili wrote in a post on X: "Elias Hazrati's decision to accept a government position has exposed a deeper crisis within the Iranian media. The fundamental principle that an independent media outlet should remain separate from government influence has been compromised. The involvement of media figures in government roles suggests that the spirit of criticism and independent journalism has been significantly weakened, raising concerns about the erosion of journalistic integrity and the freedom of the press in Iran."

The government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani, has yet to formally speak on behalf of the administration, but her two social media videos reveal her speaking style. While she is articulate, her delivery resembles that of a preacher or schoolteacher rather than a politician skilled in addressing sensitive issues transparently. Her use of flowery language and an overly dramatic tone detracts from the clarity needed in her role. Additionally, her promises in the videos suggest she's responsible for executing government plans rather than effectively conveying its messages in a clear and credible manner.

This situation reveals that the government is not fully established yet. Some of its officials such as the spokesperson and Peseshkian’s labor minister do not seem to be clear about the boundaries of their responsibilities and official mandate.

While Pezeshkian appears to manage domestic affairs, excluding areas under the Interior and Intelligence Ministries, foreign policy is largely in the hands of ex-foreign minister Javad Zarif's former team, Abbas Araghchi and Majid Takht Ravanchi, who answer directly to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Meanwhile, Pezeshkian faces a lack of effective media tools, compounded by attacks from hardline newspapers like Kayhan.

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‘Iranians for Trump’ to mobilize community for 2024 US elections

Sep 4, 2024, 14:03 GMT+1

A new political group, Iranians for Trump, has officially launched with the goal of engaging and mobilizing Iranian-American voters in support of former President Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign.

The group is focused on advocating for policies they believe will strengthen US national security and promote a tougher stance toward the government of Iran.

During his administration, Trump’s foreign policy, especially regarding the Middle East, was characterized by a strong opposition to Iran. His administration withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2019, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, and imposed strict sanctions against Iran.

Iranians for Trump supports these policies, viewing them as critical measures to counter Iran’s influence. The organization emphasizes Trump’s previous administration’s role in addressing issues related to Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism and its regional destabilizing activities, which the group argues threaten global security.

“While the Biden-Harris administration has struggled to effectively confront the threats posed by Iran’s regime, President Trump’s leadership is marked by unwavering commitment to safeguarding American national security and supporting the Iranian people in their struggle for freedom,” said Nasim Behrouz, Persian-language spokesperson for Iranians for Trump.

Iranians for Trump will focus on voter registration and advocacy to ensure that the Iranian-American community’s concerns, particularly regarding US foreign policy toward Iran, are considered by political leaders.

Sarah Raviani, the English-language spokesperson for the group, signaling the group' activism also in Congressional races added, “Our mission is to mobilize Iranian-American voters to support leaders who prioritize policies that protect US national security and promote democratic values both at home and abroad.”

According to figures from Iran’s High Council of Iranian Affairs Abroad in 2020, 47% of the Iranian diaspora (1,905,813 people) live in the Americas, with an estimated 1,500,000 living in the United States.

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Meanwhile, according to data from the Migration Policy Institute citing tabulations from the US Census Bureau 2019 American Community Survey (ACS), the Iranian diaspora in the United States comprises more than 577,000 individuals born in Iran or reported Iranian ancestry.

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Even considering the US Census Bureau, Iranian-American voters, have the potential to play a role in the November elections. While many Iran-Americans live in states like California and Texas, smaller but notable populations exist in swing states such as Virginia, Florida, Georgia, and Nevada.

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US arrests Iranian dual national over UAV technology exports

Sep 4, 2024, 12:41 GMT+1

In an escalation of US efforts to block Iran from acquiring sensitive military technology, Gholam Reza Goodarzi, a 76-year-old dual US-Iranian citizen, was arrested at George Bush International Airport.

Goodarzi, a resident of Porter, Texas, also known as Ron Goodarzi, faces charges of smuggling parts critical for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and other manned aircraft from the United States to Iran, a move that officials say poses a direct threat to US national security.

According to Assistant Attorney General Matthew G. Olsen of the Justice Department’s National Security Division, Goodarzi, arrested last Friday, attempted to “For years, the defendant allegedly used proxy destinations to try to smuggle UAV components and other controlled technology to Iran, even concealing controlled items in his own luggage.”

Iran has long sought access to advanced technologies that could enhance its aerial combat capabilities and strengthen its influence across the Middle East, potentially endangering US allies in the region.

US Attorney Alamdar S. Hamdani for the Southern District of Texas emphasized that the prosecution is part of a broader commitment to enforcing sanctions and holding accountable individuals like Goodarzi.

“Smuggling aircraft parts into Iran endangers U.S. national security by potentially enhancing Iran's military capabilities, enabling them to advance their aerial combat potential, increase regional power and threaten U.S. allies and interests in the Middle East,” Hamdani stated, adding that such actions could advance Iran's regional power and threaten American interests.

Investigators uncovered a trove of evidence implicating Goodarzi, including emails with suppliers and customers acknowledging the difficulty of shipping parts to Iran due to sanctions.

Court documents reveal that from December 2020 through July 2023, Goodarzi illegally exported aircraft parts to Iran, often through Dubai. On several occasions, authorities searched his luggage and found aircraft parts hidden in clothing, some of which were consistent with components for UAVs and other sensitive applications.

Goodarzi, who lacks the required licenses to export such items to Iran, now faces up to 10 years in prison and a maximum fine of $250,000 if convicted.

His case forms part of a broader crackdown on Iranian smuggling networks, with US law enforcement targeting those attempting to supply Tehran with advanced military technology. Just weeks before Goodarzi’s arrest, the Department of Justice indicted two Iranian brothers and a Pakistani national for aiding Iran’s weapons program. In addition, Washing recently announced a $10 million reward for information on Iranian hackers linked to attacks on US infrastructure.

On August 14, the US Department of Justice also charged Jeffrey Chance Nader, a 68-year-old Iranian-American, with attempting to illegally export US aircraft parts to Iran.

Nader was arrested in California, and according to the indictment, he conspired with others to acquire and illegally export nearly three dozen aircraft components from the United States to Iran. Many of these parts are vital for the operation of military aircraft, such as the F-4 fighter jet, which is used by Iran's armed forces.

Despite these efforts, future prisoner swaps between the US and Iran raise concerns about the long-term impact of such prosecutions. In September 2023, a deal involving the transfer of $6 billion in Iranian funds and the release of five Iranians from US custody has prompted questions about whether legal actions like Goodarzi’s arrest will have lasting effects.

Among the Americans freed by Iran was Siamak Namazi, who spent nearly eight years imprisoned in Tehran's infamous Evin prison before his release. Meanwhile, an undisclosed number of dual-nationals remain detained in Iran on fabricated espionage charges, as the regime continues its practice of diplomatic hostage-taking.


Is the US losing the battle against Iran-backed Houthis?

Sep 4, 2024, 10:59 GMT+1
•
Negar Mojtahedi

The United States and its Western allies seem unable to curb the increasing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, and a Navy commander may have offered some insight into the reason: not to anger Iran.

On Ward Carroll's YouTube episode, titled 'Admiral Tells the Real Truth about battling the Houthis in the Red Sea," a US Navy commander from the Dwight D Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, said he suggested more aggressive strikes on the Houthis, but reportedly he was told to avoid that by higher command.

The alleged instruction was to avoid large- scale counterstrikes against the Iranian proxy force due to "the balance of deterrence" with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Rear Adm. Marc Miguez was the commander of the strike group during an eight-month deployment to the Red Sea that defended commercial ships. Iran International has reached out to Rear Adm. Miguez, the US Navy and US CENTCOM for comment and was not able to secure an interview in time for publication.

Miguez appeared to suggest during the podcast episode that they needed to take Iran's response into consideration.

"There are definite strategies that were put forward, but our National Command Authority decided that those - I would call more aggressive postures and more aggressive strikes - was not something we wanted to challenge," Miguez said during the interview with the YouTuber on August 26.

That aggressive posture does not align with the risk-aversion strategy the Americans appear to be taking when it comes to the Islamic Republic of Iran, with the Biden administration hesitant to challenge Tehran.

“We have a deterrence deficit with Iran. They have been attacking our forces. They have been attacking commercial vessels, with impunity since October 2023,” said Jason Brodsky, the policy director for United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).

The root of the problem, said Brodsky, are US policy makers advocating for risk aversion.

From October 2023 to June 2024, Miguez told Carroll the carrier strike group launched seven deliberate, coordinated attacks with partners like the UK on Houthi targets. A couple of the strikes were integrated with the Air Force.

Because of all constant missile and drone attacks by the Houthis who even fired at US Navy vessels, the strike groups' destroyers ran out of anti-air missiles, taking them at least three days to reload, he said. 

While Israel targeted the Yemeni strategic port of Hodeida, after the Iran-backed rebels carried out a deadly drone attack in Tel Aviv in July, the Americans have limited their targets.

“Deterrence against the Houthis has failed, “said Brodsky.

“The United States is aiming at radars, drones, missile launchers and that kind of material without going after more strategic targets like the port of Hodeida that Israel bombed after the Houthis sent a drone that exploded in Tel Aviv," he added.

Are the Houthis winning and the US losing?

A former Royal Navy Commander, Tom Sharpe, wrote an article in the British news outlet Telegraph recently, alleging that the Houthis had defeated the US Navy.

Sharpe wrote that since January of 2024, Houthi attacks increased, and have added more to their arsenal, with the usual drones and cruise missiles now came hijackings and ballistic missiles.

"I understand the desire to not escalate with Iran which is why the Poseidon Archer strikes were focused and quite limited (especially when compared to current Israeli strikes in Yemen) even if I don’t entirely agree with it," wrote Sharpe in the Telegraph article.

The US Central Command said Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked two crude oil tankers - the Saudi-flagged Amjad and the Panama-flagged Blue Lagoon I - in the Red Sea on Monday with two ballistic missiles and a one-way attack uncrewed aerial system, hitting both vessels.

“There are no casualties onboard, and the vessel is proceeding to its next port of call,” British maritime authorities said at the time.

The Saudi shipping firm Bahri said on Tuesday its tanker Amjad was not targeted. The Houthis did not claim responsibility for that, although they admitted to attacking the Blue Lagoon.

Amid continued ship attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea, Republican Senator Tom Cotton said on Tuesday "Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have ceded the Red Sea to Iranian-backed terrorists. Our enemies do not take the Biden-Harris administration seriously.”

Republican Senator Joni Ernst also weighed in, and said the “the Biden-Harris administration continues to turn a blind eye as the Iran-backed Houthis disregard the law and terrorize the Red Sea.”

The EU naval mission in the Red Sea announced Tuesday that the salvagers have abandoned attempts to tow away the burning oil tanker, Greek-flagged Sounion, which was attacked by Yemen’s Houthi rebels according to the Associated Press.

On August 29, Houthis rebels released a video showing them planting explosives aboard the Sounion, which had been abandoned after multiple attacks the prior week.

The footage then cuts to a long shot of the vessel as the explosives detonate, while the Houthis chant their slogan: “God is the greatest, death to America, death to Israel, curse the Jews, victory to Islam.”

Richard Golberg, a Senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), said the White House's current course of action is obviously not working.

"There is an intelligence ship that the Iranians have, near the Red Sea that provides the targeting intelligence data to the Houthis to support all these attacks. We've never taken out that ship. That would seem to be an obvious next step in the escalation ladder."

Secretary of State Antony Blinken delisted the Houthis as both a foreign terrorist organization and as specially designated global terrorists in February 2021, as one of the first foreign policy acts of the Biden administration.

The White House said it was trying to make it easier to get food and humanitarian aid into Yemen. However, in the face of Houthi attacks, they re-enlisted them back on the specially designated list in 2024, though they are still not on the foreign terrorist list.

Goldberg said the Biden administration strongly believes that if Houthis have access to money and economic capital, they will hold back from serious attacks, and somehow become normalized in Yemeni society. He finds that theory to be nonsense.

“Either they're a terrorist organization or they're not. Either we’re going to treat them like we would treat a terrorist organization or we're going to treat them like some sort of negotiating partner. They're trying to do both at the same time,” said Golberg.

Can the new president change Iran's foreign policy?

Sep 4, 2024, 10:25 GMT+1
•
Ali Afshari

Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian had all his cabinet approved by the country’s parliament with no hiccups. He had the Supreme Leader's blessing for every name on his team. But will this blessed cabinet be able to oversee a shift in foreign policy and revive the nuclear deal?

Abbas Araghchi, the new foreign minister approved by Khamenei, was one of the original negotiators in the Iran deal talks. He has chosen as his deputy another member of that negotiating team, Majid Takht-Ravanchi. Both men possess the experience and skills to resolve technical issues related to a potential deal. The problem is that their loyalty to the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) is absolute. They believe in the 'principles' of the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy, chief among them, focus on the Axis of Resistance.

Araghchi, compared to Javad Zarif, has fewer differences with hardliners and stands somewhere between Zarif and Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran’s former foreign minister who was killed along with President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. So far, Araghchi’s public statements have been in line with the agenda set out by Pezeshkian in an open letter he wrote shortly after his election. There is very little to separate this new agenda and that of Raisi’s, apart from a softer tone.

Pezeshkian did speak about the need for sanctions removal and the normalization of relations with the world during his campaign. Since assuming office, however, he has shifted toward blaming the US for imposing "unjust sanctions" and defending the expansion of strategic ties with Russia and China. This shift negatively impacts his administration’s ability to open a new chapter in the longstanding conflict. The biggest obstacle is, of course, Khamenei, who determines foreign policy. Without a change in his stance, it’s difficult to see a different outcome from the failure of the two previous administrations to revive the Iran deal.

Although Araghchi has retreated from his initial stance on the irrelevance of the JCPOA and the need for a new agreement, this shift reveals a stark reality: the JCPOA, due to the broken commitments of both the US and Iran, no longer exists—it is effectively dead. According to the most recent report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has added cascades of centrifuges at its main uranium enrichment sites in Natanz and Fordow. Even the IAEA chief has suggested that the JCPOA may have expired.

Iran is believed to be 'one step' away from becoming nuclear
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Iran is believed to be 'one step' away from becoming nuclear

Iran has significantly reduced the breakout time to just a few months by gradually advancing its uranium enrichment levels and increasing its stockpile over the past six years. It now claims the capability to make atomic bombs, though Khamenei's religious order (Fatwa) supposedly prevents them from doing so. However, it seems their ultimate goal is to use their advanced nuclear program as leverage to pressure the US and EU into reviving the JCPOA or forging a new agreement without substantial changes or additional demands.

Any agreement would be a tall order since the conditions now are far less favorable than 2015, when the nuclear deal was announced. The areas of conflict have expanded after the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Now, a stronger deal is needed to mitigate instability in the region and the world. And Iran is known to be quite hostile to any suggestion of additional demands.

It is worth noting that the Biden administration initially pushed for a new JCPOA. Iranian leaders may not be opposed to the idea in principle, but the gap between the two sides seems too big to bridge. Iran under Pezeshkian will continue its support for armed groups in the region while managing the scope and scale of its tensions with US and Israel. This policy is inherently problematic and may be unsustainable. At best, it could lead to a temporary reduction in tensions.

The Biden administration has so far shown little enthusiasm for engaging with Iran’s new administration. The upcoming US election could be the main reason for both sides’ caution. A Trump victory would likely complicate Pezeshkian’s position. It could mean further escalation of tensions even. It’s not impossible that Trump may seek a stronger deal eventually, humiliating Iran along the way. A Kamala Harris win would therefore look like the more favorable outcome for Iran. But the fundamental issues and obstacles will persist whoever the president.

VP Kamala Harris is expected to pursue Joe Biden's Iran policy if she becomes US president
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VP Kamala Harris is expected to pursue Joe Biden's Iran policy if she becomes US president

Another factor complicating the potential for a new agreement is the growing military cooperation between Iran and Russia. If Iran sends Russia ballistic missiles, as reported recently, tensions could reach new heights, given NATO's repeated warnings to Iran. It’s not impossible that Germany, Britain, and France would seek snapback sanctions—a provision in the JCPOA to reimpose suspended UN resolutions against Iran and essentially dismantle the JCPOA. That would be catastrophic for Pezeshkian who taunted his hardline rival for ruining the chances of a JCPOA revival.

An optimistic scenario hinges on new calculations within Khamenei’s court, which could lead to renewed negotiations with the US over the nuclear issue and ultimately result in a new agreement with controlled setbacks—yet another Heroic Flexibility, as Khamenei named his previous retreat. This scenario could be complicated too. China’s purchase of Iranian oil at reduced prices has weakened US leverage and the effectiveness of sanctions. Europe, on the other hand, wants to contain Russia and manage the oil market, which might require offering concessions to Iran to reduce its military aid to Russia.

It is too early to predict where Iran is headed under Pezeshkian. It can be said with some confidence, however, that a strategic change in Iran’s foreign policy is unlikely. Any change would most likely be tactical or symbolic. A scenario somewhere between the two outlined here could also emerge, potentially allowing for an interim agreement that initially breaks the current deadlock by having the US lift some sanctions in exchange for Iran halting some of its nuclear activities that violate the JCPOA framework.

For now, due to increased tensions amid the Gaza war, confrontation continues, with the US enforcing and expanding unilateral sanctions while Iranian proxies attack American military and diplomatic centers in Iraq. Barring a near miraculous turn of events, there will be no easing of tensions in the months to come.

UN special rapporteur slams Iran's record high executions in August

Sep 4, 2024, 10:22 GMT+1

Iran has hanged hundreds of people over the past year, drawing sharp criticism from the UN's special rapporteur on Iran, who condemned Tehran for its "unlawful executions" following a surge of death penalties carried out in August.

With at least 93 executions last month, the number is more than twice as many as the 45 executions reported in July, according to Mai Sato.

"I have been the Special Rapporteur on Iran 1 month. During August 2024, at least 93 individuals were executed. Based on information received, only a fraction is officially reported by the Islamic Republic of Iran, highlighting the need for transparency," Sato said on X.

So far this year, there have been over 400 executions, including 15 women, however, concerns remain that the number is in reality, much higher. Last year, it was well over 850, most of whom were political dissidents.

"Wrongful executions are irreversible. Reports that I have received on the current implementation of the death penalty in the Islamic Republic of Iran leave me extremely concerned that innocent individuals may have been, and may be, executed," she added.

Nearly half the executions were carried out for drug offences. The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), to which Iran is a party, restricts the application of the death penalty to ‘most serious crimes’, understood as intentional killing.

“Executions for drug offences violate international standards,” a panel of UN experts said.

Among those executed last month was Reza (Gholamreza) Rasaei, a Kurdish protester from the Yarsani religion, banned in Iran where only Islam, Christianity and Judaism are legally recognised.

His case was, according to the UN, based on a confession reportedly obtained through torture. “Reports of serious violations of fair trial and due process rights mean that the death penalty as it is currently practiced in the Islamic Republic of Iran amounts to unlawful execution,” the UN experts said.

Sato spoke of the many sentences for broadly defined security offences such as armed rebellion, spreading corruption on earth, waging war against God, and apostasy. "International law does not permit the use of the death penalty for such offences," she added.