‘Iran's On Fire’, Says Centrist Politician

Raisi was speaking in Tehran’s Azadi square where people were gathered to mark the 44th anniversary of the Islamic Republic, an occasion when the regime was determined to show that it still enjoys popularity.

The hacktivist group Ali’s Justice (Edalat-e Ali) hacked the broadcast from the state TV and aired the slogan “Death to Khamenei”. It also called on the people to withdraw their money from government banks and called on the people to take part in antigovernment protests on February 16.

The regime had forced students, millions of public sector employees and soldiers to take part in the gathering and parades in different cities, together with its own base of support among families of regime loyalists, clerics and the paramilitary Basij organization.

A Twitter user posted a comment that “Well, somehow you did accomplish your [revolution day] march, by threatening school children with reducing their grades, government employees with financial penalties…my question is: Did you solve our problems?”

Raisi in his speech said the regime will embrace those “who were deceived during riots”, referring to last year’s popular protests and welcome them back “into the embrace of the nation.” He spoke of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s “fatherly love” and his magnanimity in pardoning detained protesters.

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The president went on repeating the official propaganda line that foreigners instigated the protests to “destroy Iran”. The regime is adept at trying to equate itself with the country and its vital interests when it faces a serious challenge.

These remarks reveal that the hardliner core of the regime headed by Khamenei is in no mood to start some sort of dialogue, at least with former regime loyalists to somewhat pacify the anti-regime mood in the country.

However, former President Hassan Rouhani told local reporters during the ceremonies that “We should not allow a power-hungry minority to push the majority aside,” adding that this “would be the end of the [Islamic] revolution.”

He was clearly referring to hardliners and ultra-conservatives who have taken over both the legislature and the presidency with Khamenei’s support in the past three years.

The Islamic government should listen to diverse ideas and the people’s voice to guarantee the survival of the revolution, he added.

Regime officials use the term revolution as a synonym for the Islamic Republic.

In recent days, prominent former officials have demanded a revision of the constitution or a new one by forming a constituent assembly and holding referendums.

Former prime minister and leader of the reformist Green Movement, Mir-Hossein Mousavi in a statement issued earlier this month said the reform movement has failed and it is time to make “fundamental changes.” Mousavi’s call is tantamount to a regime change if people are allowed to freely vote for a new form of government.

Former President Mohammad Khatami also called for serious changes, although he stopped short of saying the Islamic Republic must go.

Meanwhile, eight prominent exiled activists, including Prince Reza Pahlavi and Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi, held a joint forum in Washington DC on Friday signaling the launce of a united protest leadership in the diaspora.

At an event at Georgetown University's Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS) -- titled ‘The Future of Iran’s Democracy Movement' -- held on Friday on the eve of the 44th anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic, the prominent activists pledged unity for the single purpose of bringing democracy to Iran.

The speakers, all emphasizing the importance of unity against the Islamic Republic also argued that now is not the time to argue about the exact form of a future democratic government in Iran.

Both constitutional monarchy and a republican form of government have their supporters among Iranians.

Exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi, Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi and Canada-based activist Hamed Esmaeilion, whose daughter and wife were killed in the shooting down of Flight PS752 downed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in 2020, as well as US-based author, journalist and women’s rights activist Masih Alinejad, actresses and activists Nazanin Boniadi and Golshifteh Farahani, former captain of Iran’s national soccer team Ali Karimi and Secretary General of Komala Iranian Kurdish party Abdullah Mohtadi were four women and four men who spoke at the event.

Pahlavi, Boniadi, Alinejad and Esmaeilion were present in the room, while Ebadi, Mohtadi and Farahani delivered video messages.

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The event can become a turning point in shaping a united leadership abroad to represent the democracy movement in Iran, where activists have no chance of publicly defending it. Thousands of protesters are still in prison and dozens face the death sentence.

All speakers emphasized that the protest movement is alive and strong in Iran and it needs support from democratic countries. They pledged to work for a new form of government that would be democratic, secular and bring equality, justice and progress to Iran.

The activists representing the protest movement said that they are working on a charter for their group by the end of February and hope to lay the foundations for political representation of the aspirations of protesters in Iran and gain support for isolating the Islamic Republic.

Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi referring to the Islamic Republic's ruler Ali Khamenei said, "Dictator say hello to the end."

"It's not a time for infighting. The overthrow of the regime is not possible without unity and empathy," said Ebadi.

"Let's leave differences for the election. We will move hand-in-hand to a better future," she said in her video message.

Abdullah Mohtadi, a Kurdish political leader said that because of Mahsa Amini's killing by the regime, Islamic Republic's falsehood has been shattered.

Actress Golshifteh Farahani, also speaking on behalf of Ali Karimi, said that now is the time for unity and any Iranian sowing divisiveness is committing treason.

Well-known US-based activist Masih Alinejad emphasized the urgency of isolating the Islamic Republic in the world arena.

Hamed Esmaeilion, Nazanin Boniadi and Prince Reza Pahlavi emphasized emphasized equality, justice freedom and the common destiny binding Iranians.

Alinejad said that the group was working on a charter for a transition that would be ready at the end of the month. "We must agree on minimal principles," she said, adding: "The world must prepare itself for a day without the Islamic republic."

"The next wave [of protests] will come and it will be heavier," Esmaeilion said.

"We can organize and plan so, when the next wave comes, all of us are ready and we can transition away from the Islamic republic."

Prince Reza Pahlavi, who has long campaigned for a secular and democratic Iran rather than any restoration of the monarchy, said, "The time has come to consolidate our positions, put aside differences. The time has come to put aside slogans, roll up our sleeves and begin our work."

Updated at 22:00 GMT

Mohajeri, a conservative pundit, was singling out Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’s remark in the NPR interview this week where he insisted that no journalists or students were arrested in Iran during the protests.

“I think Mr. Amir-Abdollahian is Switzerland’s foreign minister, not Iran’s,” Mohajeri was quoted as saying on Friday. He added that either Amir-Abdollahian is Switzerland’s foreign minister or is uninformed about events in Iran.

“What he has said contradicts all the available information in the media and in the world. These kinds of statements result in nothing but showing that our foreign minister is uninformed,” Mohajeri maintained.

He argued that President Ebrahim Raisi’s government has not presented any figures on how many people have been arrested during the protests. When officials remain silent, Amir-Abdollahian has no source to claim that no journalists and students were detained. Nevertheless, he emphasized that such gaffes discredit both the foreign minister and the government.

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However, this is not the first time that an Iranian chief diplomat has tried to ignore or misrepresent facts in his attempt to defend the authoritarian regime. Former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who was much more popular with Western media, regularly denied human rights violations committed by his government.

As far back as 2015 when Zarif was negotiating the JCPOA nuclear deal with the United States, he told PBS that “We do not jail people for their opinions… But people who commit crimes, who violate the laws of the country, cannot hide by being a journalist, being a political activist.”

At the time, these remarks led to a lot of backlash, but Iran’s human rights violations were not the priority of Western powers during the race to sign a nuclear agreement.

In the 2019 Munich Security Conference Zarif refused to answer BBC’s questions about Iran’s human rights record and the jailing of eight environmentalists for no reason. Instead, he immediately brought up Jamal Khashoggi’s killing and Britain’s arms sales to Saudi Arabia.

But by then Zarif was bitter about the US decision to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal and Iran’s growing isolation, while for years he had tried to woe the Western media by smiling into the cameras.

Meanwhile, a former official Hamid Abutalebi criticized President Ebrahim Raisi’s remarks on Thursday during his meeting with foreign ambassadors on the occasion of the Islamic Republic’s 44th anniversary.

Raisi had nothing new to say about Iran’s nuclear dispute with the West, Abutalebi noted, simply repeating the same punchlines that would not impress anyone.

Iran is ready for a “just” agreement and always shows good will to achieve it, Raisi said. The United States, and lately its European allies, are immersed in “delusions and miscalculations,” Raisi added.

What the diplomats who were present read in these remarks, Abutalebi argued, was that Iran is not ready to finalize the nuclear negotiations and secure the lifting of sanctions. “A good agreement for Tehran is insisting on its old demands,” he quipped.

Conservative lawmaker Behrouz Mohebbi has claimed the protests revealed the weakness of the opposition. In an interview he said that the Iranian opposition is not powerful and influential because of the discord in its ranks. Meanwhile, the opposition does not have a leader the regime's serious critics would accept.

He further claimed that there is no alternative to the Islamic Republic, and its opposition is not capable of paving the way for democracy in Iran. Mohebbi also added that the Iranian public did not take the opposition seriously.

"The opposition has no acceptable track record. On the other hand, the cultural and political celebrities who opposed the regime have been unmasked during the past months," he said.

The emergence of opposition figures in the diaspora since protests began in September, is a new phenomenon on the Iranian political landscape, as gradually they can coalesce and present a more formidable challenge to the clerical regime.

At the same time, former regime insiders such as ex-prime minister and Green Movement leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi and others made strong public statements this month challenging the regime and demanding a referendum.

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Meanwhile, some ask if the protest will empower radical elements in the regime. The fact is that radicals are already in power and even if they increase their influence, it can play into the hands of the opposition and expand the protests.

According to Rouydad24 website in Tehran, protesters demanding an end to the Islamic Republic created the most important challenge for the Islamic Republic since 1979, giving rise to the assumption that the so-called theocratic government in Iran could collapse as the monarchy did 44 years ago.

The report, however, acknowledged that for the time being the Islamic Republic has still the upper hand in the confrontation with the people as a result of the repressive measures taken by security forces, but maintained that the people's anger and the worsening economic situation in Iran will inevitably lead to more protests.

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The report added: "The situation is so volatile that even many regime insiders have separated their path from the government. Some top clerics in Qom and An-Najaf and even some military officials have criticized the circle around President Ebrahim Raisi. Even some hardliner news agencies openly criticize Raisi for his economic mismanagement and former insiders, such as ex-President Mohammad Khatami and former Parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani have condemned the violent crackdown. Yet, there is no indication that anyone in the regime has listened to their complaints."

The report quoted Reza Nasr, a professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University, as having said in an article in the Foreign Policy magazine, "Since the start of the crisis, hard-liners have tightened their grip on the reins of power. This faction opposes engagement with the West and does not wish to return to the 2015 nuclear deal. At home, it favors isolationism and tight control of the social and political spheres. Abroad, it favors aggressive regional policies and increasing collaboration with Russia. Far from chastened by the protests, in other words, the regime that is now emerging from the initial phase of the unrest is even more intransigent and potentially aggressive than ever before."

Despite evidence of hardliners having the upper hand for the time being, Expediency Council member Mohammad Javad Bahonar has argued that the protests are deeper and more widespread than in the past five years and that even some of the supporters of the regime have their own grievances and complaints. Meanwhile, former lawmaker and international wrestling champion Amir Reza Khadem has saidthat "Nearly 100 percent of Iranian are unhappy about the current situation. Even the grey strata of the Iranian society, the silent majority, sympathizes with the protests."

Responding to Iranian conservatives' criticism of celebrities' intervention in political affairs, Khadem said that "Celebrities understand the society better than government officials."

In comments on Thursday, outspoken Sunni religious leader Mowlavi Abdolhamid praised Mousavi’s proposal and described it as the result of his understanding about the realities of society, demanding that other politicians see these realities.

“With his recent statement, Mousavi showed that he understood the realities of society. It's time for other politicians and ulema (religious scholars) to think about saving the country and see the facts,” he said. In November, the top Sunni cleric himself had called for an internationally monitored plebiscite, saying that by killing and repression the government cannot push back a nation.

Abdolhamid also criticized over a decade of house arrest imposed on Mousavi, his wife Zahra Rahnavard, and Former Parliament Speaker Mehdi Karroubi, calling it an example of the Islamic Republic’s injustice. 

Mousavi and Karroubi both were presidential candidates in 2009, when a highly disputed vote count gave the presidency to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad triggering large popular protests that became known as the Green Movement. Eventually, both Mousavi and Karroubi were put under house arrest in 2011.

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Referring to the regime’s violent crackdown on protesters, Mousavi said in his statement that such events have “demonstrated major truths for the nation.” The rulers of the Islamic Republic are not willing “to take the smallest step to meet the demands of the people.” Iran needs a“fundamental change” based on “Woman, Life, Freedom” and constitutional change, he said earlier in the month.

The leader of the Green Movement is known as a staunch reformist, or someone who believes the Islamic Republic can be reformed to become a more democratic and tolerant polity. But Mousavi’s statement rejected reform as a viable alternative, urging fundamental change, a new constitution and a constitutional assembly. Although he did not openly call for regime change, but his demands, if implemented, could lead to a new and democratic political system.

Mousavi in his statement implicitly repeated what exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi has been saying for years, and other opposition activists have echoed in the past five months – transition from the Islamic Republic.

Abdolhamid who has become an outspoken critic of the regime, has stopped short of calling for a new system of government, but endorsing Mousavi’s statement clearly aligns him with political forces that believe the people should be given a chance to decide what kind of government they want.

The 2009 Green Movement leader’s rejection of the reform option in the Islamic Republic has been met with admiration and antipathy alike. Some reformists, including seven prominent political prisoners and over a dozen figures of the ‘religious intellectual movement’, and its mentor Abdolkarim Soroush, have welcomed his proposal, others have strongly rejected it. The political prisoners, including leading reformist politician, Mostafa Tajzadeh and the daughter of Iran former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Faezeh Hashemi, who are behind bars, announced that "they will do their best to advance this proposal and a peaceful and non-violent transition to a completely democratic and developed Iranian structure." 

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Mousavi’s volte-face can be seen as a milestone in the reformist camp as another bigwig of the movement former president Mohammad Khatami also believes reformism in Iran has reached a deadlock. Mohammad Javad Haqshenas, a prominent reformist figure, said earlier this week that Khatami's statement, which was issued on the 44th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution, should be construed as a premonition for the regime that the Islamic Republic cannot be reformed. 

February 11, 2023, marks the forty-fourth anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and many people on social media believe that it is the last time the regime is celebrating the event.