Iranians Welcome Joint New Year Message By Opposition Figures

ISNA news agency reported Sunday that Naderan announced his resignation asking that “the reasons for his decision must be read and the presiding board is not allowed to interpret it.”

He was previously a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a member of parliament for four terms.

As the political and economic conditions deteriorate for the clerical regime, more disagreements have emerged among influential insiders.

Many on social media believe his resignation is related to the political crisis in the country after more than 100 days of anti-regime protests, triggered in September by the death of Mahsa Zhina Amini in ‘morality police’ custody.

His insistence on reading the text of his resignation in the open session of the parliament would mean that he is critical of some decisions in the country.

However, some others believe his resignation is a tactic to win more perks from the regime and occupy an important post in the government of President Ebrahim Raisi.

Earlier in August, there were unconfirmed reports about Naderan’s resignation after he sharply criticized Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf.

On November 16, Naderan called for “major structural changes to the system,” demanding changes to the country’s constitution.

Hassan Beheshtipour, an Iranian international relations analyst, told Nameh News website in Tehran that there is no positive indication for the resumption of talks over reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, known as JCPOA. He was responding to a question about the possible outcome of Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian's recent visit to Oman in a bid to use its Arab neighbor as a mediator with the US.

The analyst argued although Iran claims that the West has been sending secret messages to Tehran, open-source information show that the West is not interested in resuming the negotiations. He added that the West is mainly waiting to see where the ongoing protests in Iran are headed.

Beheshtipour said despite criticism that the Iranian government does not tie people’s financial hardship the JCPOA and sanctions, Tehran has reached the conclusion that a deal would the most important factor in improving Iran's economy.

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Meanwhile, Foreign policy analyst Kourosh Ahmadi told Entekhab News website that Iran's position about Russia's war in Ukraine has changed Europe's stance regarding Tehran. He added that Russia's use of Iranian drones in attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine has left a negative impression on public opinion in Europe and has toughened Europe's stances toward Iran.

Ahmadi added that the negative trend in relations has led Europeans to minimize the importance of trade with Iran which was previously among Europe's priorities. Ahmadi added that the ongoing nationwide protests have also affected Europe's stance on Iran.

The analyst argued that Europe has even adopted a tougher stance toward Iran than the United States, because Tehran has not grasped Ukraine's importance for Europeans and the fact that Ukraine is only 500 kilometers from Germany. He said: "That is why the spokesman for the German Foreign Ministry has said that Germany has no reason to support the continuation of talks with Iran.

Ahmadi said Europeans are extremely sensitive to the fact that Iran is Russia's partner in threatening Europe’s security. He pointed out that in 2011 the volume of transactions between Iran and Europe reached 28 billion euros. The figure dropped by 78 percent in 2020 and finally reached to just over one billion euros in the first six months of 2022.

In another development, Iranian sociologist Bijan Abdolkarimi has said in an interview with Rouydad24 website that "Iran is entangled in a political impasse and Iran's power-house is currently under pressure both from abroad and from within the country."

Abdolkarimi added that the Iranian people are the main victims of this political impasse while the regime has no solutions.

Asked if a possible improvement in the economic situation would reduce the general sense of dissatisfaction among Iranians, Abdolkarimi said: "I cannot answer this question properly because the situation is getting worse on a day-to-day basis. In fact, we are facing an economic collapse in Iran for which officials cannot offer any solution."

He added that the only solution is a return to the JCPOA, but in the current situation reaching an agreement is practically impossible.

In response to an online call to protest at the Grand Bazaar, crowds formed in the area around noontime despite massive intervention of security forces, both male and female, and plainclothes agents who had stationed themselves in large numbers in various locations to prevent protesters from congregating in any one place.

“Poverty, corruption, unaffordable prices, We will go on until toppling [the regime]”, protesters chanted while security forces tried to disperse them violently. Videos posted on social media show protesters and onlookers booing security forces and shouting “Scoundrels, scoundrels” at them.

Chanting began as did the firing of tear gas, shooting of plastic bullets, beatings with batons, and many random arrests by security forces when numbers grew big enough around the Grand Bazaar, a maze of corridors running over 10 km in the heart of the capital with several entrances.

People chanting “Poverty, corruption, unaffordable prices” and vowing to topple the regime at Tehran Grand Bazaar area.

Shops in several of the corridors, including the goldsmith’s lane, and a large shopping mall in the heart of the bazaar and adjacent streets closed when protests began outside.

Inflation is currently hovering around 50 percent. In the past few days this week rial has further depreciatedagainst the dollar and other major currencies, pushing up prices for many basic commodities. The dollar rose to an unprecedented high of 440,000 rials earlier this week, forcing the Central Bank of Iran governor Ali Salehabadi to resign. The new governor, Mohammad-Reza Farzin vowed to strengthen the rial again, and intervened on Saturday with some success.

On Saturday employees of several large companies, including the oil refinery in Abadan in the oil-rich Khuzestan Province and another one in Arak Iran, staged strikes in protest to low salaries and wages and in Rasht, capital of the northern province of Gilan shops closed in protest to the government.

People running from security forces in bazaar area.

Videos posted on social media show female students who took to the street in Najafabad, a very conservative city of around 300,000 in Esfahan Province, also chanting against the government for poverty and corruption which they said would only end when the regime is toppled. “This homeland will not thrive before the [ruling] mullahs are dead!”, protesters chantedwho also accused the government of sending Iran's “dollars” to Lebanon while putting the youth in prison at home.

Meanwhile, in the Kurdish city of Javanrud, the third-largest city in the western Kermanshah Province, unrest that began Saturday morning escalated after security forces shot and killed a 22-year-old protester, Borhan Eliasi, in clashes with protesters who were trying to convene to hold memorials for seven others who had been killed forty days earlier during a spate of protests in Kurdish cities in late November.

Several others were shot and injured in Javanrud where people barricaded the streets Saturday morning when they were attacked. Angry protesters later stormed and ransacked two government banks, Keshavarzi and Sepah, and burned a road checkpoint kiosk.

Eliasi was buried a few hours later with thousands attending the burial ceremony at a nearby village cemetery. “We’re children of fire and blood, We will take revenge for our martyr”, participants chanted in Kurdish.

Elsewhere, in the restive city of Samirom, also in Esfahan Province, a large crowd gathered in front of the local governor’s office and protested while calling him “Daish-minded”. Protesters also chanted “Death to Khamenei”. On Thursday thousands had marched from the city to a cemetery in the snowy countryside to honor the memory of a young protester, Ali Abbasi, who was shot dead by security forces inn November.

Erfan Kakaie, Bahaoddin Veisi, Tahsin Miri, Masoud Teimuri, Jamal Azami, Johar Fatahi and Esmail Gol Anbar were killed by government forces during the bloody protests on November 20 and 21 in Javanrud, Kermanshah province.

The ceremony to mark the fortieth day after their death, according to Iranian tradition, was supposed to be held in the presence of a large crowd of people Saturday morning.

Reports say that regime forces fired live rounds and tear gas at the people attending the procession.

Social media activists shared videos showing regime agents shooting and killing Borhan Eliasi during on Saturday.

Protesters chanted slogans like "Martyrs will not Die" and "Death to Khamenei" to resist the security agents.

Iran's Kurdish cities have been at the forefront of the protests that started with the death is custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini from the Kurdish city of Saqqez in mid-September.

People in Javanrud marching toward the cemetery

People in most Kurdish-populated areas in Kordestan, West Azarbaijan and Kermanshah provinces have relentlessly protested and defied government forces since Amini’s death.

According to Hengaw organization for human rights, at least 128 Kurdish citizens have been killed by the direct fire of government forces and 52 other ordinary citizens have been executed in 2022.

Out of the 128 citizens who were shot dead, 116 were related to the popular uprising, while others were porters carrying goods between Iran and Iraq, in what authorities say is smuggling of Western merchandize, including washing machines and other goods.

Nineteen victims were under 18 years of age that are considered minors according to international norms.

Meanwhile, reports from capital Tehran say a large group of people have been holding a protest gathering near the Grand Bazaar on Saturday but details are still coming in. Tear gas was fired by security forces but there are no details about possible clashes or injuries.

Grassroot groups had earlier published calls for protests and gatherings near Tehran bazaar, which is the business hub of the capital, after the national currency fell in shocking speed in recent days against the US dollar and other major currencies.

According to local experts, government’s incompetence, widespread corruption and sanctions pushed the US dollar to over 440,000 rials this week, forcing many business owners to shut down their shops.

Some observers, including a commentary in the leading reformist newspaper Etemad asked whether Rouhani has started a gamble to ensure his political comeback by returning to newspaper headlines after several months. The daily also pointed out in the commentary entitled "Rouhani's rough path to a comeback," that his comments have triggered radical attacks by Iran's conservatives.

Entekhab News, a centrist news outlet close to Rouhani quoted him on December 28 as saying: "I have conveyed some suggestions to the Supreme Leader both in writing and over the phone." Meanwhile, Sara Massoumi, a senior journalist in the reformist daily Etemad on the same date quoted Rouhani as saying: "Some people think that interaction with other countries will lead to infiltration into the Iranian political system. This is not true. It is isolation that leads to infiltration." He added: “In my government we worked hard to keep the JCPOA alive regardless of many attacks on us. We saved the JCPOA by freezing it. The current government could have benefitted from the JCPOA if it wanted to."

According to Etemad, although Rouhani has been silent during the past 18 months except for sending occasional condolence messages, members of the government and other hardliners in Iran often blame him for the country's current problems. Others say that attacks on Rouhani are in fact conservatives’ way of supporting Raisi who is often criticized for his government's weak performance and the deteriorating economic situation.

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During the past week, some Iranian politicians suggested that Rouhani might be willing to take part in the parliamentary elections in early 2024. Meanwhile Rouhani and other Iranian politicians have been under pressure by hardliners to support the government and the entire Iranian political system which has been under attack by protesters.

As part of those pressures, Raisi said earlier this week: "Many political figures and regime insiders failed to fulfil their responsibility during the protests." The conservatives reminded that Rouhani's silence is in contrast with his position during the 2019 protests when as president he called for identifying and punishing those who protested to a sudden hike in the price of gasoline.

However, Rouhani's meeting with his former cabinet ministers and aides on December 26 indicated that he is looking for a political comeback with an eye on the impact of the ongoing protests.

During the meeting he extensively talked about the role of women in Iran and their status in Islam. In the same meeting, he also spoke about the JCPOA and how Iran could have benefitted from it had the current government not opposed a deal. Both subjects were likely aimed at bringing Rouhani back to the headlines, and they did.

Nonetheless, although Rouhani tried to appease Khamenei in his remarks, hardliners launched an immediate attack on him saying that his remarks about women showed his liberal views against Islam. Iranian hardliners use the word "liberal" as an insult rather than a political label. Hard-line Mashregh News close to Iranian security forces even said that Rouhani's views were a deviation from the Islamic Republic's official rhetoric.

Farda News, another conservative outlet close to parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused Rouhani of "distorting the truth" and "trying to portray the Raisi administration as a weak government only to conceal his own government's weakness."

Rouhani's possible response to these critics will show if he is really interested in a political comeback.