Pundits Say Iran Must Step Away From Russia To Get A Deal With West

The ministry summoned the Ukrainian envoy to ask for explanation in reaction to comments by Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, about the drone attacks against the Defense Ministry's facility in Esfahan (Isfahan) on Saturday night.

In a tweet in which Podolyak was mentioning some telegraphic developments of the Russian invasion, he said, “Explosive night in Iran - drone and missile production, oil refineries.” He continued, “Ukraine did warn you,” referring to repeated calls on Tehran to stop supplying arms to Moscow.

Podolyak said, "War logic is inexorable and murderous. It bills the authors and accomplices strictly," adding, “Panic in the Russian Federation -- endless mobilization, missile defense in Moscow, trenches 1,000 kilometers away, bomb shelters preparation.”

Nour News Agency, affiliated with the Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), said earlier that "If Ukraine’s government fails to officially renounce the tweet by Zelenskyy's advisor, which implied Kyiv's complicity in the move against Iran, it will have severe consequences for them."

Tehran is questioning Kyiv’s involvement in the attack despite reports that point the finger at Israel. The Wall Street Journal said in an exclusive report Sunday that Israel carried out the drone attack on the military center for research and development.

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Russia on Monday also condemned the drone strike and warned against what it called "provocative" actions that could trigger an escalation in an already tense situation.

"Such destructive actions could have unpredictable consequences for peace and stability in the Middle East," Moscow's Foreign Ministry said.

Tehran has supplied hundreds of drones to Russia since mid-2022 that have been used during missile attacks to inflict more damage or to swamp Ukrainian air defenses. The United States and Europe have imposed new sanctions on Tehran for its expanded military ties with Moscow and also its deadly crackdown on protests since last September.

The attack targeted what some sources said was Material and Energy Laboratory of Esfahan with what the defense ministry called “small drones.” Videos citizens sent to Iran International showed an explosion, although the government claimed its air defenses had fended off the attack. Small or quadcopter drones, however, cannot fly hundreds of kilometers to reach Esfahan, located in central Iran. If indeed the attack was carried out with small drones, it would mean operators were present on the ground, in Iran.

According to the Israeli weblog Intellitimes, the target of the drone attack was the "Iranian Space Research Institute" affiliated with the ministry of defense. The Jerusalem Post, citing Western and foreign intelligence sources, also wrote that contrary to Iran’s claim the attack on "advanced weapons development" facility was a "tremendous success".

The attack on Saturday comes as the United States and Israel have expanded close military coordination, including drills just days earlier, as well as discussing ways to combat Iran’s capabilities.

Tehran’s supply of large, kamikaze Shahed-136 drones with a 45-kilogram warhead to Russia are a concern for the US and NATO. Russia has used hundreds of these drones to target Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.

In addition to the attack, an aircraft targeted a convoy of trucks crossing from Iraq to Syria carrying suspected Iranian cargo on Sunday.

Government controlled media in Tehran claimed that the 25-truck convoy attacked on the Iraqi-Syrian border was carrying flour and food, while the route taken is a customary juncture for weapons deliveries to Iranian proxies in Syria and Lebanon. Suspected Israeli attacks have targeted trucks and warehouses near the Iranian controlled al-Qaim border crossing multiple times.

Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who was speaking at a joint press conference with his Qatari counterpart Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani on Sunday in Tehran, did not provide further details, but the Qatari top diplomat said that the message was from the US.

“Qatar has been always passing on messages about the return of the JCPOA parties to their commitments. Today, we received JCPOA-related messages from the Qatari side,” Amir-Abdollahian stated, referring to the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Meanwhile, the Iranian news agencies quoted the Qatari official as saying that "the Americans gave us a message to convey to Iran, which is related to the issue of the agreement, although it may not be directly related to it."

Qatari foreign minister also urged all parties to return to the agreement.

Talks to revive the JCPOA reached a deadlock last September after 18 months of negotiations.

These statements come as US officials have repeatedly stated that their focus is not on the JCPOA negotiations any longer, but Washington is rather focused on the Islamic Republic’s suppression of its people and Tehran’s military support for Russia in the invasion of Ukraine.

The European parties to the JCPOA have also expressed a similar view, with Germany saying that "Berlin's main focus is on supporting the protest movement in Iran."

Speaking to i24News on Thursday, Marom was asked when the right time is to attack Iran’s nuclear installations.

"In my understanding, I think Israel has to attack, because the situation right now is that Iran is a threshold country - 100 percent," he replied.

The former vie-admiral said that although Iran is currently enriching uranium to 60 percent, it can quickly increase enrichment to above 90 percent, which is necessary for a nuclear bomb. He added, “the moment to jump from threshold to holding nuclear weapons will be very, very short… and therefore I think the time to attack… the clock is ticking, and we will have to do it sooner rather than later, sooner it means in the upcoming year."

Negotiation to re-establish limitations on Iran’s nuclear program are in limbo and Tehran has gone beyond the previous limit on enrichment that existed under the 2015 nuclear deal known as the JCPOA.

Israeli leaders have been warning that they will resort to a military attack to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb, although experts believe that would be a difficult task if Israel tries to do it alone.

The United States conducted large-scale military drills with Israel this week, with some saying that the exercise was meant to be a message to the Islamic Republic.

In a face-to-face with our correspondent Arash Alaei, Dennis Ross said that the Islamic Republic has lost its chance to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with making extra demands, noting that now the only move that may kickstart the talks is a halt in Tehran’s uranium enrichment to over five-percent purity. 

Iran should not be enriching to 60 percent or even 20 percent, he said, adding that the Islamic Republic is crossing thresholds that may push the Biden administration to a path that it would not like to pursue, he said. The Biden administration might say “what was on the table is no longer on the table. You had a chance to do the JCPOA and you chose to try to get more,” he added. 

He said that the administration sought a longer and stronger deal since the beginning, speculating that if they want to agree on a deal, it will not be going back to the JCPOA. “The deal has to apply for much longer; it has to be stronger, then there would be readiness to talk about a deal,” he said, foreseeing that Washington would ask Tehran to give up more if it wants to potentially get more.

Ross was the director of policy planning in the State Department under President George H. W. Bush, the special Middle East coordinator under President Bill Clinton, and a special adviser for the Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia -- which includes Iran -- to the former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. 

Referring to the recent round of Western sanctions on the Islamic Republic officials, Ross said that this is a message to Tehran that “we are collectively hardening our approach because of the behavior of the Iranian regime.” He added that slapping the Revolutionary Guard with the terrorism label by the Europeans has never been really considered. Ross mentioned the coordination among the US and its allies to close the loopholes so that Iran cannot sell its oil as another measure that showed the world is standing against the regime.

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All of these indicate that “the Islamic Regime needs to understand that life is going to become more difficult for them if they stay in the path they are on,” he underlined. 

The West on Monday stepped up pressure on Iran over its crackdown on protests and arms supply for the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the US, the European Union and United Kingdom imposed fresh sanctions on Tehran. However, the EU stopped short of designating the IRGC a terrorist outfit, as the European Parliament had voted last week to urge the block to do.

He said that the regime is enriching uranium to the levels that have no civilian use, elaborating that Iran “continues to move ahead with its nuclear program. It has 16 cascades of advanced centrifuges – the IR6s -- that are enriching to 60 percent, for which there is no justifiable civilian purpose.” “When you enrich uranium, you can rationalize it saying we’re going to use it to generate electrical power. When you enrich to 60 percent, you have one purpose in mind.” 

The Islamic Republic “has probably four bombs worth of enriched material to 60 percent,” adding that “60 percent is not weapons grade but it’s close to weapons grade,” Ross said. It means it takes very little time for them to turn the fissile material into bombs, he added. “You still have to take that fissile material and take it to weapons. There is a big difference between enrichment, which is taking place in large facilities and the process of weaponization, which can be taking place in facilities that we wouldn’t be aware of,” Ross warned. 

The Middle East expert believes that Iranians are playing with fire. If the Biden administration says, “we will prevent you from having a nuclear weapon, they are pushing the Biden administration towards what will be a military action, even if that's not what the Biden administration would prefer to do.” 

About the joint military war games by the US and Israel -- their biggest so far with thousands of forces, a dozen ships, and 142 aircraft, including nuclear-capable bombers – he said the nature of this maneuver is unprecedented as they have integrated every domain. “They are doing it in space, they are doing it in air with aircraft, they are doing it in cyber, they are doing it on the ground, and they are doing it with naval. All these separate domains, all these separate forces are being integrated between the two and they include suppression of air defenses; it includes B52 bombers,” he added. The scope of such war games “involves a kind of action the US and Israel would be taking if there was a decision to carry out the use of force against Iran’s nuclear program.” He described the drills as a rehearsal or preparation for such an action against Iran, he highlighted. 

The attack came one day after Ukraine secured pledges of main battle tanks from Germany and the United States to beef up its troops - a move that infuriated Russian officials.

The military said its air defences shot down all 24 drones unleashed by Russia overnight. Fifteen of them were downed around Kyiv where there were no reports of any damage, they said.

Iran’s Islamic government has supplied hundreds of drones to Russia since mid-2022 that have been used during missile attacks to inflict more damage or to swamp Ukrainian air defenses. The United States and Europe have imposed new sanctions on Tehran for its expanded military ties with Moscow and also its deadly crackdown on protests since last September.

Air defences shot down 47 of 55 missiles that included at least one Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic missile, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's top military commander, said.

As many as six Tu-95 strategic bombers launched long-range missiles after taking off from the Arctic region of Murmansk in northern Russia and launched long-range missiles, Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said.

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Russia's main target had been energy facilities and that the strikes aimed to deprive Ukrainians "of light and heating" with the temperature in Kyiv at below freezing.

With reports by Reuters