Iranian Regime Agents Threaten Dissident Expats In Europe

German MP Norbert Röttgen, who previously served as a Chair of the Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a tweet that the German Federal Foreign Office is still financing the Carpo thinktank, an institute led by Adnan Tabatabai who allegedly lobbies for the Islamic Republic, under the two-year contract.

Adnan Tabatabai is co-founder and CEO of the Berlin-based Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO), and is the son of Sadeq Tabatabaei, the brother-in-law of the Islamic Republic’s founder Rouhollah Khomeini who served as Iran’s deputy prime minister from 1979 to 1980. Adnan is known in international media as an Iran expert who supports the regime. 

He has on several occasions talked about normalizing relations between the West and the Islamic Republic and is in favor of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal or the JCPOA. He is consulted by the German Federal Foreign Office, members of the German Bundestag, political foundations as well as journalists and authors.

The move seems contradictory to Berlin’s policies of pressuring the Islamic Republic over its human rights violations. Debate still rages in Germany over listing Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as ‘terrorists,’ with Röttgen tweeting “You have to Decide Now.” 

Rottgen, a member of the Christian Democratic Union, has been at loggerheads with Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, a Green, since Baerbock announced October 31 that the European Union was considering sanctioning the Guards (IRGC).

Qods Aviation Industries was itself sanctioned in November. The US also designated Friday the director of Iran’s Aerospace Industries Organization over its role in manufacturing Iran’s ballistic missiles.

“We will continue to use every tool at our disposal to deny [Russian President Vladimir] Putin the weapons that he is using to wage his barbaric and unprovoked war on Ukraine,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in a statement. The action was taken, said the Treasury, under Executive Order 13382, from 2005, ‘Blocking Property of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferators and Their Supporters.’

The US argues that supply of drones from Iran violates a provision in United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, which barred Tehran from trading certain kinds of weapons – including drones “capable of delivering at least a 50kg payload to a range of at least 300km.”But the drones the US and Ukrainian say Iran have sent carry a slightly lighter load.

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While Friday’s action may do little - any US assets of those designated can be frozen - it illustrates the Ukraine crisis changing calculations in Washington over Iran policy. The administration of President Joe Biden took office in January 2021 ostensibly committed to restoring the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, but has shifted its focus towards sanctions over Tehran’s links with Russia and its treatment of internal protests.

‘Pure damage’

In Tehran, opponents of the 2015 agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) take heart. Saeed Jalili, top security official under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has argued the JCPOA brought little inward investment and was “pure damage” even before the US withdrew in 2018.

Jalili advocates a ‘resistance economy,’ based on domestic production and lowering import dependence. But while Iranian domestic employment picked up slightly after the US in 2018 left the JCPOA and imposed ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions according to government figures, some economists suggested this was more reaction to circumstance, including the falling rial, than any strategy.

Likewise, with ‘maximum pressure’ stymying the Rouhani government’s efforts of attracting western European investment, including energy majors, Iran turned elsewhere, an approach crystalized in President Ebrahim Raisi championing a ‘turn east.’

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But many analysts argue that the Ukraine crisis – although regime officials forlornly hoped it would make Europe desperate for Iranian energy – has accelerated Iran-Russia rapprochement, which both sides say they would like to base on economics as well as security.

Stoking Iranian skepticism towards Russia

The Washington Institute this week published a policy paper by senior fellow Henry Rome arguing the US should “stoke longstanding Iranian skepticism towards Russia” to combat the “tightening of ties” triggered by the Ukraine crisis. Rome cited November’s statement from 35 former Iranian diplomats calling Tehran’s reaction a “grave mistake” and reiterated allegations that Russia had leaked to the media details about shipments of Iranian drones.

The US, Rome argued, should “emphasize the potential for friction and mistrust between the two partners” to “generate the most intense reaction in Tehran,” as well as extending sanctions over drone shipment, and encouraging European States to designate Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) to “impose a greater economic cost on Tehran for supporting Russia.”

European Union foreign ministers are expected to discuss new Iran sanctions at the end of January. In letter published in the newspaper Volkskrant on Friday, leaders of ten Dutch parliamentary parties called for the IRGC to be designated along with officials and their families.

Netanyahu the mediator?

In other fall-out from Ukraine, an aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Israeli television Thursday that new Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was a potential mediator with Russia. Mykhailo Podolyak said he had “no doubt” Netanyahu “understands precisely what modern wars are and what is the essence of mediation under these conditions.”

While the Ukraine war has boosted Israeli arms sales due to poorly-performing Russian weapons, Netanyahu - who touted his warm relationship with Putin in 2019 elections by slapping a giant picture of the Russian president outside the Likud Party headquarters - has said he was approached while in opposition to mediate but deferred to the government.

Mehdi Beyk, the political editor of reformist Etemad newspaper, was arrested on Thursday. 

Earlier in the week, the regime’s security forces arrested two other journalists -- Mehdi Ghadimi and Milad Alavi, both working for reformist media outlets. 

On Sunday, regime’s agents raided the house of Mehdi Ghadimi’s father in Karaj, west of Tehran, and arrested the journalist who used to work for several dailies in Iran including Etemad and Shargh, both ‘reformist’ publications.

Tehran Journalists Association says at least 73 journalists and photographers have been arrested in the past four months, around the time when 22-year-old Mahsa Zhina Amini was killed in police custody triggering the current wave of antigovernment protests. 

Niloufar Hamedi, Elaheh Mohammadi, Nazila Maroufian, the three journalists who broke the news of her death, covered her funeral and interviewed her father were also arrested. 

The Brussels-based International Federation of Journalists said in mid-December that at least 57 journalists had been arrested in Iran since September. The international NGO also noted that only 30 of the 57 detained journalists have been reportedly released so far.

There are no exact figures on the number of people arrested during the protests, but some sources say nearly 20,000 people have been detained, more than 500 killed by security forces and many received serious injuries, such as losing their eyes when they were targeted by shotguns.

“Whether facing gallows or prison, we will stand firm until the end!” a video posted on twitter shows protesters in Zahedan, capital of the southwestern province of Sistan-Baluchestan, chanting. In another video they are seen chanting “Down with the executioner Republic!”

Two young Baluch protesters, Mansour Dehmardeh and Ebrahim Narouei, were sentenced to death on charges of “corruption on earth” Tuesday. According to the Baluch Activists Campaign (BAC), a rights group, the 22-year-old Dehmardeh who has physical disabilities has also been brutally tortured in detention.

Videos also show protesters chanting against the newly appointed governor of the province. “We don’t want a Daish-i governor!” Brigadier General Mohammad Karami, the former commander of Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) ground forces in the region, was recently appointed as governor in the restive province.

In his sermon this Friday, Mowlavi Abdolhamid protested to the “mass arrests on the streets” in the Sunni-majority province and accused the authorities of torturing detainees until they accept crimes that they never committed. “The Sharia does not sanction forced confessions which the Constitution does not endorse either,” he said while demanding the release of all detainees.

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“You have put [protesters] in prison, executed them, and the problem was not solved with these executions, imprisonments and heavy sentencing … Listen to the voice of the people if you want to solve the problems,” he told the authorities.

IRGC-affiliated Fars news website quickly responded to Abdolhamid, publishing remarks by conservative regime insider Javad Larijani, brother of former parliament speaker Ali Larijani, who harshly attacked the Sunni cleric.

“It is about time for the revolutionary forces to set aside niceties with Abdolhamid. He cannot be in Iran and say we are Iranians, but pursue the policies of Iran’s enemies,” Larijani said.

Abdolhamid, officially known as Mowlana Abdolhamid Esmail-Zehi, also noted the anniversary of the Revolutionary Guards downing a Ukrainian commercial flight over Tehran with missiles on January 8, 2020, that killed all 176 onboard. “The government was definitely responsible for this tragedy but did not accept its fault. You weren’t honest with the people,” he said.

“The strength of the system does not ensue from nuclear weapons or military [power]… Strength comes from accepting faults and carrying out justice,” Abdolhamid told the thousands who had gathered at Jameh Mosque of Makki in Zahedan to pray and to take part in the weekly protests that have been held regularly after the Friday prayers since September 30.

The crackdown on protesters on September 30 during which 90-96 Baluch worshippers including children were killed and around 300 were injured has come to be known as the “Bloody Friday of Zahedan”.

Local sources say the IRGC and other security forces set up check points in some areas of Zahedan on Friday to stop the flow of people to the prayers and arrested at least nine youths after the prayers. According to Halvash, a website dedicated to news in the province, the outspoken Abdolhamid has been under pressure from intelligence and security organizations to stop his popular Friday prayers and fiery sermons.

Local sources also say security forces arrested tens of Baluch residents, including teenagers, ahead of this week’s Friday prayers. Some activist groups such as BAC put the number of detainees in the past few days at “hundreds”.

Many of the detainees have been accused of “hooliganism” or connections with foreign countries and “a terrorist group”, presumably the militant Jaish ul-Adl which has a history of deadly operations in the southwestern Sistan and Baluchestan province.

Halvash website that covers Baluchestan events reported Thursday that "Mowlavi Abdolhamid has rejected the requests by the security organizations".

Since September during ongoing protests following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody, Mowlavi Abdolhamid has made fiery speeches against the heavy crackdown and killing of protesters, calling government actions "felony".

He has also called for holding a referendum in Iran with the presence of international observers.

The Sunni city of Zahedan in the southeastern Sistan-Baluchestan province has been witnessing protests against repressions and discriminations in the province following mass Friday prayers during the past thirteen weeks.

According to Halvash, Thursday evening a large number of military forces and plainclothes agents have been stationed in the schools of Zahedan to repress any protests on Friday January 6.

Meanwhile, other reports say during the past four days, at least 113 Baluch citizens and children have been arrested in different regions of Zahedan by security agencies.