Q & A: Snapback, Drones, The UN, & The Iran Nuclear Deal

With Burns a former ambassador to Russia and as Deputy Secretary of State a key player in behind-the-scenes talks that led to the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, many expected President Joe Biden to assign Burns a diplomatic post. His appointment to head the Central Intelligence Agency raised some eyebrows in Washington.

Two years into the job, Burns Friday gave an interview to PBS where he expressed pride in the CIA’s work at a “moment of profound transformation on the international landscape.” A revolution in technology was “transforming…the way the intelligence profession works,” he said, while emphasizing “the rise of major power competition with China and with Russia.”

Burns argued that Iran’s supply of military drones to Russia marked “at least the beginnings of a full-fledged defense partnership… with the Russians beginning to look at ways in which, technologically or technically, they can support the Iranians.” This, he said, could “have an even more dangerous impact on the Middle East [than in Ukraine] …if it continues.” Without elaborating, or being asked to, Burns added that the US took the matter “very, very seriously.”

The Ukraine war, he argued, was exposing Russian weaknesses, for example in its troop mobilization and inability to match the weapons being supplied to Ukraine. Some Washington analysts have highlighted as ‘good news’ evidence of ships travelling from Iran to Russia turning off tracking devices to hide shipments – ‘good news’ in the sense it signals the success in the US strategy of eroding Russia’s military capacity.

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But Burns acknowledged the consequences of the war and sanctions not just on Moscow’s war effort but within Russia itself. The Russian economy has suffered long-term damage,” he said. “Most of the progress that the Russian middle class has made over the last 30 years is being destroyed.”

CIA ‘struck’ by Iran protests

Turning to Iran, Burns said CIA analysts had been “struck” at “the duration and scope of current protests,” which reflected “a growing number of Iranians… fed up with economic decay, with corruption, with the social restrictions that especially affect Iranian women.”

Protests have slowed economic growth as Iran struggles in the fifth year of US ‘maximum pressure sanctions with 40 percent inflation and the authorities expanding money supply to meet a fiscal challenge. But Burns did not express the view, or hope, held by some US conservatives, that this would lead soon to dramatic political change.

“I don’t think the Iranian regime perceives an immediate threat to its grip,” he said. “It still has some very practiced habits of repression and brutality that it’s continuing to employ.”

The diplomat in Burns resurfaced as he acknowledged China’s “reluctance” to supply weapons requested by Russia, and of both Chinese President Xi Jinping and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi in “raising their concerns about use of nuclear weapons.” But this did not distract the CIA director from his main concern. “We have no higher priority at CIA,” he said, “than not just Taiwan, but the longer-term geopolitical challenge that Xi’s China poses.”

Eslami referred to a parliament bill passed in December 2020 that required the government to increase high-level enrichment of uranium, demanding that the United States lift all sanctions. Praising the legislation, Eslami said that the decision made possible an unprecedented enrichment capacity.

In November 2020, Iran’s parliament with a hardliner majority - many officers of the Revolutionary Guard - initiated the legislation and passed it in early December, right after newly elected US president Joe Biden signaled his readiness to return the United States to the Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran known as the JCPOA.

His predecessor Donald Trump had abandoned the accord in 2018 calling it a “bad deal” and imposing sanctions on Iran.

In early 2021, the Islamic Republic began enriching uranium to 20-percent and shortly after to 60-percent, a short step from acquiring highly enriched fissile material for a nuclear bomb. According to estimates, it now has enough enriched uranium for one atomic bomb.

Eslami claimed that Iran’s nuclear program has led to production of energy and has saved “a lot of money” and reduced fossil fuel consumption.

His claims, however, are refuted by the fact that only a small fraction of Iran’s electricity is produced by its only reactor at Bushehr, while highly enriched uranium is not needed for nuclear power plants, which is not the subject of the dispute with the West.

The hearing session was held Thursday after a one-year gap with the presence of ten defendants.

Flight PS 752 was hit with two surface-to-air missiles as it was taking off from Tehran on January 8, 2020, in the tense aftermath of Iran's missile attack on United States military bases in Iraq. The missile attack on US bases was in retaliation for the US killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad days earlier.

All 176 onboard the jetliner died but for three days the government lied about shooting down the plane.

Without mentioning any names, the regime’s judiciary only said ten defendants from different military ranks were present.

The Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victims, however, warned Wednesday that the Islamic Republic is “planning yet another mockery of justice” in a military court.

In a statement the Association stated, “Tehran’s military court will be resuming its show trials on the downing of flight PS752, which claimed the lives of 176 innocent passengers and crew, along with an unborn child.”

Based on the information obtained, added the statement, not a single high-ranking or even mid-level officer or commander of the armed forces are among the accused.

“The case and charges are based on a false theory of negligence and human error. There have been no independent experts to investigate the case. Everything has happened behind closed doors and without any transparency towards the families of the victims,” reads the statement.

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The families have instead endured and resisted nearly three years of “persecution, intimidation, threats, and sometimes deceitful offers of compensation,” it added.

Families of flight PS752 victims underlined that in recent days, the world witnessed how “innocent civilians were summarily tried and executed with no due process. Meanwhile, the culprits who ordered or carried out the orders to shoot down a civilian airliner continue to roam around with full impunity after nearly three years.”

The Islamic Republic recently executed two protesters, Majidreza Rahnavardand Mohsen Shekari in less than a week after charging them with either killing or injuring government agents during anti-regime protests sparked by the September death of 22-year-old Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini in police custody.

At least 494 people have been killed in the demonstrations amid a heavy-handed security crackdown, according to human rights groups. More than 18,000 have been detained by authorities.

“It is our duty to inform the public of the nefarious plots of the Islamic Republic thugs and their leaders,” families of flight PS752 victims stressed, underscoring that the regime “intends to close this blood-stained file in silence and at a time when the West is on holidays.”

They stated that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, IRGC Commander Hossein Salami, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani, Chief of Staff for the Armed Forces Mohammad Bagheri, Commander of IRGC’s Aerospace Force Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and many others among the highest ranks of the Islamic regime are “the real culprits behind this crime and must be put on trials.”

Some parents of the victims also boycotted the proceedings last year, saying that the trial of those allegedly responsible lacks transparency and due process.

The families of victims have filed a lawsuit at the International Criminal Court to investigate the case as a war crime or crime against humanity.

In May 2021, some family members also filed a civil lawsuit against the government and senior officials they believe were to blame for the incident. Canada’s Ontario Court ruled that the downing of the plane was an intentional act of terrorism.

While Israel attacks shipments of Iranian arms to Syria and Lebanon, new information indicates that Mahan Air, a sanctioned airline continues transferring weapons across the region. 

According to a report by Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth on Wednesday, the airline is pursuing its activities under cover of a travel agency with normal tickets. It presents itself as a privately-owned airline, established in 1991 by the son of then-Iranian President Akbar Rafsanjani and is headquartered at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport. 

The company was sanctioned by the US in 2008 for links to the Quds (Qods) Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, but that does not prevent it from flying to multiple countries around the world, including frequent and worrisome flights from Iran to Syria and Lebanon. It is barred entry by the United States, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Canada, Japan, Germany and France, but it continues to fly to countries outside of the Middle East, including China.

Data disclosed by the Alma Research and Education Center, an Israeli defense watchdog that specializes in threats from Lebanon and Syria, indicate that Mahan Air serves as the Islamic Republic’s main cover for transporting sizeable quantities of weapons to its proxies across the region. 

“Ostensibly, Mahan Air transports passengers and cargo, and is the largest Iranian private airline. It operates under an umbrella organization, the supposedly civilian Mullah El Muvaadin Charity,” Tal Beeri of the Alma Center told Jewish News Syndicate on Wednesday. 

“The charity is in fact an economic mask for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), allowing it to operate legally and conduct its financial operations,” he said, adding that “Mahan Air operates as a civilian business, which is in actuality working as a full surrogate for Quds Force."

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The Alma report also includes a list of the 63 Mahan Air pilots allegedly involved in the smuggling of weapons. “These pilots are not officially affiliated with the IRGC. However, it is highly likely that some of these are IRGC pilots that were loaned to the company. Other pilots who may not be of the IRGC are simply turning a blind eye,” said Beeri. 

According to Beeri, the company works closely with Quds Force Unit 190 -- assigned to the mission of arming Iran’s proxies -- with fake passenger names to Syria and Lebanon. “As of now, so far this year, Mahan Air flew to Damascus International Airport at least 110 times, and 39 times to Beirut’s Rafiq Hariri Airport. It flew at least 12 times to Syria’s Aleppo Airport,” he said.

Mahan Air has direct connections to two Iranian travel agencies, the main being known as Hamrah and the second as Utab Gasat, Beeri said, adding, “Between 2018 and 2021, some 60,000 plane tickets were booked with Mahan, with many of these tickets going to Hamrah. A look at passenger names reveals that despite tens of thousands of tickets being booked, there are no more than nine names that appear and reappear on the passenger list. Out of 2,000 tickets, just 15 passenger phone numbers appear.”

The Alma report concludes that “From this, it can be understood that Hamrah is, in fact, an executive body of the IRGC whose task is to coordinate and organize the transportation of equipment, weapons and operatives.” 

Also on Wednesday, Israel’s military chief of staff strongly suggested that Israel was behind a strike on a truck convoy in Syria last month, a rare glimpse into Israel’s shadow war against Iran and its proxies across the region. Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi said Israeli military and intelligence capabilities made it possible to strike specific targets that pose a threat. 

“We could have not known a few weeks ago about the Syrian convoy passing from Iraq to Syria. We could have not known what was in it, and we could have not known that out of 25 trucks, that was the truck. Truck No. 8 is the truck with the weapons,” he told a conference at a university north of Tel Aviv. 

Earlier in the month, Israel threatened to bomb Beirut’s airport if it is used by the Iranian regime to smuggle weapons. London-based Asharq Al-Awsat quoted on Saturday some political sources in Tel Aviv as saying that Israel will not be lenient with the transport of Iranian weapons through Beirut airport, warning to launch military strikes if the airport is used for Iranian ammo deliveries. Last week, Al-Arabiya reported that Iran’s Meraj Airlines had begun conducting direct flights from Iran to the Lebanese capital of Beirut.

Hacktivist group Backdoor (3ackd0or) provided Iran International with documents that proves Mohammad-Reza Ansari, was one of the commanders of the Quds Force unit 840 based in Syria who led the operation to assassinate former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former national security advisor John Bolton, apparently in retaliation for the US targeted killing of top IRGC commander General Qasem Soleimani.

Soleimani was killed in Baghdad along with nine others in January 2020 by a drone strike ordered by President Donald Trump, a huge blow to the regime, which was heavily dependent on him to lead its proxies across the region. Many Islamic Republic officials and military commanders have vowed revenge for Soleimani, and every year around the time of his death anniversary, such threats are echoed by the regime.

According to the leaked documents, an IRGC envoy went to Washington January 16, 2022, to carry out the plan, but the IRGC was not unaware that an individual hired to kill Bolton in exchange for $300,000 was actually an FBI informant.

The planner of the botched plot, who had recruited agents in the United States, was Shahram Poursafi, who was charged by the Department of Justice in August with plotting to assassinate Bolton. Poursafi is a 46-year-old Quds Force officer operating under the pseudonym "Mehdi Rezaei".

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The Justice Department statement cited court documents suggesting Poursafi launched the plan to kill Bolton, either in Washington, the District of Columbia, or Maryland in October 2021 by asking an unnamed individual – whom he met online – to take photographs of Bolton, ostensibly for a book Poursafi was writing. The individual concerned introduced Poursafi to a second person whom he offered $250,000, later increased to $300,00, to eliminate the ex-presidential advisor.

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Poursafi, who is at large, had told the hired “killer” about the job that it did not matter how the murder was carried out but that he would need video confirmation of Bolton’s death. He had emphasized that it is better to assassinate Bolton before the second anniversary of Qassem Soleimani's death. Poursafi also promised the person to pay $1 million for his next target, who was supposed to be Pompeo. Poursafi is now apparently in Iran and participates in clubhouse chat rooms with his photo and under the name of "Mehdi Rezaei," defending the policies of the IRGC and the Islamic Republic. 

Poursafi, along with Mohammad Hossein Shahmoradi an intelligence commander in Tehran and Abolfazl Alizade, is a member of the team headed by Mohammad Reza Ansari, who is one of the commanders of Unit 840 of the Quds Force and is stationed in Syria. 

Unit 840 is a very secretive group within the Quds Force and there are usually no photos of its members available. The unit’s mission is to conduct operations against Western targets and Iranian opposition groups and individuals. There is no mention of Unit 840 in Iranian media. The existence of such a unit has only been reported by Israeli media which in November 2020 reported that Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) had accused Unit 840 of placing explosives at the Syrian border. Colonel Hassan Sayyad-Khodaei, who was shot dead behind the wheel of his car outside his home in Tehran on May 2022 was one of the previous commanders of the elite Qods Unit 840.