Israel may hit Iran next year if enrichment resumes – Al-Monitor
Israel may strike Iran within the next year if it concludes Tehran is moving to restore high-level uranium enrichment, European diplomats told Al-Monitor on Saturday.
Israel may strike Iran within the next year if it concludes Tehran is moving to restore high-level uranium enrichment, European diplomats told Al-Monitor on Saturday.
One Western diplomat said a new campaign would be “short and intense” but strategically limited. “Iran will evidently retaliate with a missile launch, perhaps hitting buildings the way it did last time,” the diplomat said, adding that the fundamental balance of power would remain unchanged.
Enrichment described as the main red line
The current post-war equilibrium is deeply unstable, Raz Zimmt of the Institute for National Security Studies told Al-Monitor. Israel, he added, has yet to define precise red lines on Iran’s ballistic missile program, but a return to enrichment, weaponization work or attempts to recover the roughly 408 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent believed lost in the June attacks would almost certainly trigger a response.
“The more time passes without the United States and Iran reaching a nuclear agreement, the more likely a new round of conflict becomes,” Zimmt said.
Stalled diplomacy and Iranian pressure
Iran is rebuilding its air defenses, missile systems and protective measures around nuclear sites – a process Zimmt said could continue for up to a year without prompting an Israeli strike. But he warned Iran is effectively stuck in a “no war, no peace” posture, a phrase invoked by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with sanctions eroding the economy while enrichment remains constrained.
Khamenei’s recent remark that the US is “not worthy” of engagement has further complicated prospects for diplomacy. Israeli officials argue any future US-Iran deal must cap enrichment at 3.67 percent, restore intrusive inspections and resolve the fate of the missing enriched uranium. Without those terms, some say, sanctions relief would be unjustified.
Zimmt noted Washington shows little urgency. Trump, he said, appears convinced the 2025 strikes destroyed Iran’s program – a view that reduces US pressure and leaves Israel preparing for what it sees as an increasingly likely confrontation.
In a letter addressed to Google, Meta, YouTube and Amazon Web Services, the European Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with the Iranian People warned that Iran’s widening use of AI-driven surveillance, recurrent shutdowns and a “white SIM card” scheme for officials had created a two-tier digital system isolating ordinary citizens.
The Iranian government enforces some of the world’s toughest online restrictions, blocking platforms such as X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp, and Telegram for the general public. Most people rely on slow, unreliable VPNs that authorities routinely disrupt.
By contrast, X's new location feature recently revealed that select users receive government-issued SIM cards or whitelisted connections to bypass national filtering and throttling altogether.
The issue drew wide attention over the past few weeks, when the X feature revealed numerous pro-government figures were posting from inside Iran without VPNs – despite long claiming they used the same circumvention tools as ordinary citizens.
The disclosures triggered heavy public criticism, with many describing the system as “digital apartheid” or a “caste-based internet” that rewards political loyalty and entrenches inequality.
EU says firms must bolster anti-censorship tools
Hannah Neumann, who chairs the EU delegation, said a free internet remains the only barrier against propaganda and intimidation. “Technology companies are the guardians of this freedom, and now is the time to take their responsibility seriously,” Neumann said, according to a copy of the letter obtained by Euronews.
She added that companies were capable of measures that “ensure these voices are not silenced.”
Deputy chair Bart Groothuis said digital repression had become central to Iran’s authoritarian model. “By supporting tools to circumvent filters, we can improve secure communication and give Iranians access to the free internet,” he said.
The letter urged firms to fund open-source VPN and censorship-bypass projects, expand encrypted communication features and develop in-app proxies to keep users connected during outages. It also asked Amazon Web Services and human-rights–oriented VPN providers to offer free or discounted server space to stabilize services for Iranian users.
European legislators pressed Google to continue backing Jigsaw, Outline VPN and its SDK, and to consider integrating these tools into major apps. Meta was asked to embed filter-bypass technologies into Instagram, Facebook and Threads. Companies were also urged to provide simple procedures for appealing blocked accounts and to increase cooperation with digital-rights groups.
US lawmakers pursue parallel push
In Washington, lawmakers introduced the FREEDOM Act on Thursday, which would require the secretary of state, the FCC and the Treasury to assess technologies capable of supporting unfiltered internet access for Iranians.
Representative Claudia Tenney highlighted the potential of satellite-to-mobile systems that could “bypass the limitations of censorship and government networks.” The feasibility review will also evaluate UAV-based platforms and counter-jamming tools.
Representative Dave Min, whose district includes a large Iranian-American community, said promoting internet freedom strengthens global family ties while confronting authoritarian practices.