China's imports of Iranian crude hit three-month high – Bloomberg

“The United States has warned the Iraqi government that ongoing oil smuggling operations involving Iranian crude could trigger severe sanctions, potentially targeting Iraq's State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) and freezing $350 million in oil revenue unless implicated individuals are held accountable,” Erbil-based Kurdistan24 wrote Saturday.

On July 3, the State Department issued a direct warning to Baghdad, citing what it called the smuggling of Iranian crude through Iraqi networks and naming six sanctioned entities and four tankers involved in the trade.

The Treasury later designated 22 companies across Turkey, the UAE, and Hong Kong for facilitating sales that fund Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF).

“We have contacted the federal Minister of Oil to come to parliament so we can question him about this matter, as this smuggling jeopardizes Iraq’s exports,” said committee member Sabah Subhi in remarks to Kurdistan24.

“Ninety-five percent of Iraq’s revenue depends on oil exports,” he added, reflecting the dilemma as Iraq is once again stuck between allegiances with Washington and its neighbor, Tehran.

US pressure builds over armed groups tied to Iran

The US warning comes alongside growing concern over Iranian-backed armed groups operating within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).

A US State Department spokesperson told Iraq’s Shafaq News on Saturday, “These groups continue to engage in violent and destabilizing activities in Iraq.

“We remain concerned about Iranian-backed militia groups, which operate within the Popular Mobilization Forces, including individuals and groups affiliated with designated foreign terrorist organizations.”

On Sunday, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani met with US Chargé d’Affaires Steven Fagin in Baghdad amid US calls for Iraq to take direct steps to rein in sanctioned militias and safeguard regional stability.

US officials have consistently flagged groups within or aligned with the Popular Mobilization Forces—including Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq—for their ties to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard-Quds Force and involvement in attacks on US personnel in Iraq.

Missile strikes and bombings in Tehran and other cities released vast quantities of pollutants into the air and water systems and generated massive quantities of hazardous debris, the department said on Sunday.

“The attacks not only caused civilian casualties and infrastructural damage, but also severely compromised the country’s natural resources.”

Tehran alone generated an estimated 150,000 tons of war rubble, according to the report, with cleanup costs exceeding 7,500 billion rials ($8.7 million), as per the report.

Waste disposal from industrial and military sites added another 3,000 billion rials ($3.5 million).

“Oil storage sites in Rey and Kan were also hit, destroying 19.5 million liters of fuel and releasing more than 47,000 tons of greenhouse gases and nearly 579,000 kilograms of airborne toxins into the capital's atmosphere,” read the statement from the department.

“These emissions pushed air quality in several provinces into the hazardous range.”

The department also warned of threats to water tables, soil, and biodiversity due to chemical leakage, sewage overflow, and thermal radiation, adding that assessments were ongoing and that full reports would be submitted to national and international authorities.

According to the UK-based Conflict and Environment Observatory, which monitors the environmental impact of war and military activity, there has been significant environmental damage in Israel too.

Missiles which hit a refinery complex in the country triggered fires and pipeline damage, its report said.

Israel's latest government figures state there were 43 fires in buildings and 65 forest fires and fires in open areas.

"Damage to urban areas, including to commercial and residential buildings, can create inhalational hazards for people from pulverised building materials and combustion products," The Conflict and Environment Observatory added, after the Iranian attacks of 530 ballistic missiles, destroyed large swathes of residential areas in addition to more secretive sites.

Prosecutors said Ostovari is the founder and CEO of a Tehran-based engineering company that supplied signaling and communications systems to the Iranian government, including on projects for the Islamic Republic of Iran Railways.

From at least May 2018 to July 2025, Ostovari and his co-conspirators “obtained and shipped sophisticated computer processors, railway signaling equipment, and other electronics and electronic components to Company A in Iran,” according to the indictment unsealed Friday. “Many of these items were controlled under federal regulations, and their export to Iran without a license was prohibited.”

He is charged with one count of conspiracy to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and three counts of violating the IEEPA. Prosecutors say Ostovari acted in knowing violation of the Iranian Transactions and Sanctions Regulations (ITSR), which, alongside the IEEPA, prohibit the export, sale, or supply — directly or indirectly — of certain US-origin goods to Iran without authorization from the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

The Justice Department said Ostovari used two front companies in the United Arab Emirates — MH-SYS FZCO and Match Systech FZE — to carry out the scheme. He and others “intentionally concealed from electronics suppliers in the United States and elsewhere that the goods were destined for Iran,” falsely listing the UAE companies as end users.

Prosecutors allege that after becoming a lawful US permanent resident in May 2020, Ostovari continued the exports. “Ostovari knew of the US sanctions against Iran,” the indictment states, “mentioning them in emails to co-conspirators and directing one co-conspirator to provide false information to a federal export control officer.”

Neither Ostovari nor his companies applied for or received a license from OFAC to export the equipment, according to the Justice Department.

If convicted, Ostovari faces up to 20 years in prison for each count. Homeland Security Investigations and the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security are investigating the case.

According to Iranian customs statistics, non-oil exports in June totaled just $3.4 billion—a 34% drop compared to the same month last year.

Meanwhile, data from tanker tracking firm Kpler, shared with Iran International, shows Iran’s average daily crude oil offloading in China—its sole major customer—fell to 1.36 million barrels per day in June, a 16% decrease from the year before.

It wasn’t only exports that suffered. Imports also dropped 17% year-on-year, despite repeated government assurances that markets were stable.

In the aftermath of the conflict, the price of essential goods and food rose sharply across Iran.

While officials insist there is no shortage, the numbers tell a different story. With essential items accounting for 75% of Iran’s imports—and total imports down sharply—the government’s denials appear increasingly tenuous.

Iran’s customs chief Foroud Asgari asserted this week that clearance of essential goods increased by 87% during the war. His assertion appears to be inconsistent with available data, given the overall 17% drop in imports and the dominant share of essential items in the import basket.

Trade down across the quarter

While customs data points to a dramatic drop in June exports, Kpler’s oil tracking suggests Iran’s oil income fell even more steeply.

Iran’s official customs report shows non-oil exports for the first quarter of the current fiscal year (starting March 21) reached only $11.6 billion—a 14% decline year-on-year.

Over the same period, Iran’s daily crude oil deliveries to Chinese ports dropped 17%, falling below 1.3 million barrels per day. Compounding this, global oil prices were roughly 13% lower this spring compared to the same period in 2023.

Taken together, Iran’s oil revenue fell by an estimated 30% compared to the first quarter of the previous fiscal year.

Bleak outlook for oil revenues

New assessments from international bodies this week confirm Iran’s declining energy income.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Iran earned $43 billion from crude oil and condensate exports in 2024—just $1 billion more than in 2023.

OPEC’s estimate, which includes petroleum products such as fuel oil, places Iran’s total oil export revenues at $46.7 billion.

These totals, however, exclude the heavy costs Iran pays to circumvent U.S. sanctions—estimated at more than 20% of gross revenues.

These costs stem from steep discounts to Chinese buyers (around $6–$7 per barrel, according to Kpler), the leasing of expensive "ghost fleet" tankers, and clandestine tactics such as ship-to-ship transfers, document forgery, and the use of intermediaries in countries like Malaysia to disguise the oil’s origin.

OPEC’s statistical bulletins show Iran earned just $160 billion from oil exports between 2019 and 2024. In sharp contrast, in the five years before U.S. sanctions were reimposed in 2018, Iran’s oil export revenues exceeded $400 billion.

The new measures include 22 entities accused of violating US sanctions on Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as the Trump administration continues to hit out at sources of revenue for the Iranian state.

“The Iranian regime relies heavily on its shadow banking system to fund its destabilizing nuclear and ballistic missile weapons programs, rather than for the benefit of the Iranian people,” Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent send in a statement.

“Treasury remains focused on disrupting this shadowy infrastructure that allows Iran to threaten the United States and our allies in the region,” he added.

The IRGC is designated by the US as Foreign Terrorist Organization. The Quds Force also known as IRGC-QF which is a unit of the IRGC is also designated in the same list.

According to US treasury statement, the IRGC-QF uses front companies outside Iran to secretly move money from oil sales through offshore accounts. These funds, often worth hundreds of millions of dollars, help Iran evade sanctions and support terrorist groups and weapons programs across the Middle East.

The Treasury earlier this month sanctioned an international network accused of smuggling billions of dollars' worth of Iranian oil disguised as originating form Iraq.

Also blacklisted were several vessels allegedly involved in secretly transporting Iranian oil, in the latest US move aimed at Iran’s so-called shadow fleet.

The Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran focuses mostly on the country’s most critical revenue source, oil sales.

All US-linked assets of the targeted entities have been frozen, and Americans are prohibited from conducting business with them. The designations also expose foreign firms to secondary sanctions, raising the cost of facilitating Iran’s oil trade.