Iran's political discourse sharpens amid mounting crises

President Masoud Pezeshkian announced in a meeting on Friday that the worst is over in electricity and gas shortages which have plagued the country for over a month.

“Forecasts indicated that the state of the network could have been much worse than it is today," Pezeshkian reassured the public, saying the power grid was now stable

But ordinary Iranians routinely plunged in the dark have seen no improvement.

Yet another power plant near the capital stopped producing electricity on Friday due to shortage of diesel fuel, which has largely replaced dwindling natural gas supplies during the high demand cold season.

Gas production, Iranian media reported is down by up to a third even as Iran holds the world’s second largest reserves. Diesel supplies too are limited.

Iran’s largest natural gas reserves are in the Persian Gulf, in a field shared with Qatar which is a successful producer.

However, the natural pressure of the gas field has been declining in the last four years and Iran does not have the necessary technology to adequately tap its economic crown jewel.

Western technology and financial sanctions in place and lack of money for investment make it unlikely that they ever will.

At the same time, the Iranian currency stood at a historic low against major currencies, with the US dollar trading well-above 800,000 rials late on Friday. The battered currency has lost one-third of its value since early September.

Since the ouster of its lifelong ally in Syria’s Assad dynasty earlier this month, the Islamic Republic has found itself on the backfoot not only at the domestic front with the energy crisis, but also in foreign policy.

Several politicians and high-level officials on Friday either tried to sound the alarm or blame internal and external enemies for the existing state of affairs.

“Today is a day for national unity and cohesion. Enemies have surrounded us from all sides, yet we fear nothing, for this is the trait of God's supporters," Chairman of the Expediency Council Ayatollah Sadeq Amoli Larijani said in a public gathering.

"Wise strategy and divine virtue dictate that we preserve divine values. Let us avoid words that lead to division.”

Mohammad-Hossein Safavi, a Friday Prayer Imam in northern Iran, lashed out at Jews and Israel as the root cause of the Islamic Republic's troubles.

“According to God's words in the Quran, the Jews are the most hostile beings and exert all their efforts to infiltrate Islamic societies,” he told his congregation.

Opponents of the Islamic Republic on social media are trying to divine when it will fall, similar to Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Some give it just weeks, while others say it will not survive until the end of 2025. Their dire domestic situation and regional defeats are not lost on officials and clerics, who try to show strength or blame enemies.

Reports on social media of shops selling mostly Chinese-imported Christmas accessories, eateries displaying Christmas decorations and offering themed menus and people gathering outside churches or throwing Christmas parties at home were abundant this year.

Many recent posts on social media show people buying trees, taking photos in front of shop windows or with men dressed as Santa Claus on the street.

This year, there was also a video of singing and dancing on Christmas night near the Armenian church on Tehran's Mirza-ye Shirazi Street. Unlike last year, the videos showed many unveiled women on the street, too.

People dancing on the street in Tehran on December 25

There have been numerous reports in Iranian media in recent years that quote owners of businesses in the area saying most of the shoppers who buy the trees, accessories, and gifts are Muslims.

Unsurprisingly, the phenomenon has been met with consternation by clerics.

“Celebrations and activities related to Christmas are not admissible unless necessary because they promote the non-Islamic culture," conservative Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem-Shirazi ruled in 2014.

"Necessity here means harm to familial relations and friendships [with Christians] if these activities are not performed,” the senior cleric said in response to a question on whether Muslims could congratulate each other for Christmas and celebrate the event.

Only a tiny proportion of the Iranian society are Christians. According to the 2016 census, Christians of recognized denominations – mainly Armenians and Assyro-Chaldeans – comprised around 0.15 percent of the population.

Christmas decorations in Jolfa Armenian neighborhood and Vank Cathedral in Isfahan

Christianity, Zoroastrianism, and Judaism are recognized as legitimate religions in the Islamic Republic and their followers enjoy some degree of freedom of worship. They also have their own representatives in the parliament.

Although converting from Islam can carry the death penalty, conversion to Christianity has been on the rise in Iran.

"Iranians have become the most open people to the gospel," David Yeghnazar of Elam Ministries said in 2018. The Christian Broadcast Network found in the same year that "Christianity is growing faster in the Islamic Republic of Iran than in any other country."

However, there are no reliable figures on the number of converts who mostly worship at underground establishments often called house churches.

Most Armenians who make up the biggest Christian community in Iran live in Tehran, Isfahan, and the northwestern provinces.

Mirza-ye Shirazi Street, a formerly Armenian neighborhood with a large church, and Majidieh neighborhood in the east of the capital where many Armenian families live have become the most popular destinations for Christmas enthusiasts in Tehran who want to immerse themselves in a Christmassy mood and environment.

Assyro-Chaldeans celebrate on December 25 but unbeknownst to most ordinary Iranians, Armenians celebrate Christmas on January 6 following the tradition of Eastern Orthodox Christians.

The Christmas spirit prevails on Mirza-ye Shirazi Street and elsewhere in Tehran from mid-December when many shops and shopping centers start displaying Christmas trees and lighting.

Christmas spirit on Tehran's Mirza-ye Shirazi Street

Vank Cathedral, a four-hundred-year-old church and major sightseeing destination in Jolfa, Isfahan’s old Armenian quarter, is another very popular destination for Christmas enthusiasts.

Some travel to the city in December and early January only to visit the cathedral and the beautiful lighting and decorations on display.

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Last year, local media reported hundreds of people rushing to the cathedral on December 25.

The cathedral’s doors were closed earlier than usual that evening but some among the boisterous crowd of singing and dancing youth outside the church tried to force the gates open. The crowd was eventually violently dispersed by the police.

Hundreds gathered outside the same cathedral this year, too, but police intervention was not reported.

Young people outside Isfahan's Vank Cathedral jokingly chanting an Islamic slogan on December 25

The videos posted on social media, however, showed the crowd of largely young Muslim men chanting “Peace be upon the Prophet Muhammed and his household”, a common practice in Islamic gatherings and after prayers, after a few among the crowd jokingly prompted the chanting.

This was taken as disrespect to Christians by some including Mehdi Mazruei, a former member of the City Council of Isfahan, who said the crowd’s behavior was offensive.

Authorities should “guard the spiritual capital of hundreds of years of respectful coexistence among [followers] of various religions [in the city],” Mazruei wrote on X on Wednesday.

This year, there were also citizen reports of a more pronounced Christmas spirit in shopping centers and cafes of Tabriz, the capital of the East Azarbaijan Province, which has a smaller Armenian and Assyro-Chaldean population than Tehran and Isfahan. Tabriz has several churches including the Saint Mary Armenian Apostolic church dating to the Safavid period.

In the past two decades, Valentine's Day and Halloween have also become very popular among Muslim Iranians.

Religious fundamentalists and the hardline political establishment who even frown upon the celebration of pre-Islamic festivals such as Nowrouz (the Persian New Year), Yalda (the Winter Solstice Festival), and Charshanbeh Souri (an ancient fire festival) as pagan traditions are very concerned about these celebrations which they often describe as a Western cultural onslaught on Shi'ite Iran.

For several years, pundits have suggested that the rising popularity of Christmas in an Islamic country like Iran is a collective response to the government's attempts to promote Shi'ite mourning ceremonies such as Ashura and Arbaeen over the celebration of happy occasions in the society.

“What is important to people is life and happiness. (Celebration of Christmas and other western holidays) is … a reaction to the traditional (Shi'ite) culture,” philosopher and university professor Bijan Abdolkarimi told local media in 2020.

"I haven't been to Christmas celebrations, but why do (some) people mock it so much? Is it wrong for people to have an excuse to be happy?" an anonymous user on X said.

"Is it wrong for us to have an excuse to be joyous when the rest of the world is being joyous? They keep mocking and saying we are not Christians," the user weighed in.

"Forget about religion and just be happy."

Filmmaker Mina Akbari reported on X that Alidoosti was planning to travel to Qeshm Island with her daughter when she discovered her national ID code had been blocked for all flights.

Akbari quoted Alidoosti as saying, "Have you ever seen anything like this?" adding, "Yes; this is Iran."

This incident comes after Alidoosti's previous arrest and subsequent defiance of mandatory hijab laws.

Alidoosti, a well-known figure in Iranian cinema and theater, was arrested in November 2022 after publicly protesting the execution of Mohsen Shekari, a young man arrested during the Woman, Life, Freedom protests. She was released on bail after approximately one month in detention. Upon her release from Evin Prison, she notably appeared without a headscarf, openly defying Iran's compulsory hijab laws.

Last week, images of Alidoosti without a headscarf backstage at a Tehran theater also circulated widely on social media, further demonstrating her continued defiance.

Their calls come as costs of living mount and the country faces huge external pressure in the form of military setbacks and renewed sanctions under Donald Trump.

Referring to a 15-point action plan for greater social and economic freedoms, Khatami warned on Thursday that “Iran is in a critical situation“.

Adopting the plan would ensure "the country does not fall into chaos and conflict, to prevent, in my view, an overthrow, while also avoiding self-overthrow," Khatami said.

The former president from 1997 to 2005, rarely comments so stridently on vital policy matters and is out of favor with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei - the ultimate decider of foreign and domestic policy.

"If no action is taken to improve people’s lives and strengthen hope for change, we will all suffer,” he added.

Khatami and other Reformists have often been caught between the need for change and the constraints imposed by Iran’s conservative political structure.

Their history of seeking to improve the system only for the Islamic Republic to resort to harsher crackdowns and fail to deliver on promises has stoked criticism.

Khatami, who has long been a de facto leader for Iran’s Reformist camp, also called for a return to the ideals of the 1979 revolution, including republicanism, which he argued had been sidelined by the current political order.

“If we have deviated from this goal, what peaceful and fair measures can be taken to bring all—parties, factions, society, and governance—back to republicanism?” he said.

His remarks reflect an ongoing struggle within Iran’s political elite: how to balance the need for reform with the preservation of the Islamic Republic’s fundamental structure, which has been increasingly threatened by internal and external challenges.

Hassan Khomeini and the struggle for hope

Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, weighed in on the depressed mood in Iran, expressing concern about the erosion of popular hope.

“The enemies have targeted the people’s hope,” he said in a Thursday speech. “If they kill our hope, we are dead; every nation lives through hope.”

Khomeini has emerged as another figure in the Reformist camp, though he has carefully avoided directly criticizing Khamenei’s policies.

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“Despair is the plague of human activity ... even in difficult situations, people of faith must not fall into despair,” Khomeini’s said.

The message has found some resonance, especially in the context of mounting public frustration.

Need for popular support

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Azar Mansouri, another prominent Reformist and head of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, also weighed in on the troubled state of the nation, urging national unity.

Speaking at the party’s 10th Congress, Mansouri called for prudence in the face of Iran’s increasing regional and international isolation, particularly with the second act for a Trump administration that has promised a renewed policy of maximum pressure.

“In the current situation, where regional problems for Iran have increased on one hand, and on the other, someone with a history of anti-Iranian policies and maximum pressure is sitting in the US presidency, it is crucial to understand these increasingly complex and challenging conditions,” Mansouri said.

“A strong and dignified presence on the international stage requires the government to have the solid backing of public satisfaction and support,” Mansouri added.

Her call contrasts with the reality of dwindling voter turnout and increasing disillusionment with the political system.

In the 2017, 2021, 2024 elections, voter turnout plummeted, with the 2024 presidential election seeing one of the lowest turnouts in the history of the Islamic Republic. The sense of disengagement from the electorate is palpable, and many Reformists like Mansouri have failed to confront the root causes of the apathy.

As Iran teeters on the edge of deeper political and economic turmoil, the reformists’ calls for change are framed within a difficult paradox: they are both critics and, detractors would argue, enablers of the system they now warn is endangered.

While figures like Khatami, Khomeini and Mansouri continue to push for reform, they are part of a system that has shown little interest in the transformation they advocate.

Reformists and their history of saving the system

While the Reformists are now sounding alarms about Iran’s future, they have historically played a key role in stabilizing the Islamic Republic amid crises.

Khatami’s own presidency was marked by a push for political freedoms and better relations with the West. However, the real turning point came in the post-2009 period, when the Reformists once again rallied behind the system to prevent it from falling.

In 2013, they threw their support behind Hassan Rouhani in the presidential election, hoping he would bring economic relief and mend ties abroad.

Yet after Rouhani’s election, Iran saw little of the promised change. The nuclear deal, which was heralded as a diplomatic breakthrough, quickly unraveled after Trump pulled out.

Under Rouhani, Iran also faced the worst economic crisis in decades, fueled by US sanctions. The Reformists, instead of challenging the system’s hardline approach, largely supported policies that allowed the establishment to remain in power.

This culminated in the suppression of multiple waves of protest, such as in November 2019, when hundreds were killed by security forces during demonstrations against rising fuel prices.

While the reformists may have temporarily stabilized the system in the past, they have also been a party to its failures.

Iran is currently grappling with an intense economic crisis, as the value of the US dollar has surged past 800,000 rials, exacerbating inflation and eroding the purchasing power of ordinary citizens.

The country is facing severe energy shortages, with power outages and gas supply cuts becoming more frequent, leading to the disruption of business and daily life.

Pollution levels are escalating, intensifying the already dire health challenges.

Meanwhile, skyrocketing prices for basic goods, including food and medicine, are placing immense pressure on households, pushing many to the brink of poverty.

Amir-Hossein Mosaddegh was sentenced to 17 years and 9 months in prison and fined 8.25 trillion rials (about $10,000) for illegal influence peddling and participation in bribery.

His brother, Mohammad-Sadegh Mosaddegh, received an eight-year prison sentence for abuse of office and involvement in eight counts of money laundering.

Their father Mohammad Mosaddegh Kahanmouei, the former first deputy of the Judiciary, resigned in March, several months after a Telegram channel revealed that his two sons were arrested for massive corruption and money laundering.

Apart from Mosaddegh’s sons, the case involves twenty-one other suspects.

The indictment revealed details of the case, including allegations related to the transfer of the "Shohaday-e Gheytarieh" sports complex to a prominent Tehran constructor.

The sons of the former first deputy allegedly held a 20 percent stake in the deal, equivalent to 1.4 trillion rials, approximately $1.75 million at today’s rates.

Another charge against the brothers involved exerting influence in the case of Mohammad Rostami Safa, a known bank debtor, resulting in their acquisition of 2 trillion rials (about $2.5 million).

The Rostami Safa Group, managed by Mohammad Rostami Safa, has a history of accusations, by the Judiciary itself, of receiving substantial loans since 2003 and failing to repay them.

It is not the first time a judiciary official has been caught up in a corruption scandal. In a similar case, another senior judiciary official, Akbar Tabari, was arrested in 2019 for leading a bribery network and personally accepting multiple bribes. He was sentenced to 31 years in prison.

However, Iran ranks 149 out of 180 countries in the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) by Transparency International, scoring 24 out of 100.