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ANALYSIS

Khamenei hints at desire to overthrow Syria's new government

Morad Vaisi
Morad Vaisi

Iran International political analyst

Dec 23, 2024, 17:20 GMT+0Updated: 12:01 GMT+0
Syrians celebrate the fall of Bashar al-Assad on December 12, 2024.
Syrians celebrate the fall of Bashar al-Assad on December 12, 2024.

Iran's Supreme Leader on Sunday openly opposed Syria's new government, spoke of the need to overthrow it, and announced plans to form a group to combat the Damascus administration.

Since Khamenei explicitly said that he was speaking as the leader of the Islamic Republic and not offering an analysis, his words could signal that hostility toward Syria’s new government is now official policy for the Islamic Republic. This may serve as a directive for the Quds Force, the IRGC’s foreign operations branch.

This speech, Khamenei’s 1,936th during his 35-year tenure, delivered a clear message about the Islamic Republic’s position on Syria's new administration. While many regional nations have expressed hope for peace and stability in Syria, Khamenei underscored the need to oppose the new government, essentially advocating for its overthrow.

"The young Syrian has nothing to lose. His university is unsafe, his school is unsafe, his home is unsafe, his street is unsafe, his life is unsafe. What should he do? He must stand strong and determined against those who designed this insecurity and those who implemented it, and God willing, he will triumph over them," Khamenei said.

Ali Khamenei speaking after losing his close regional ally, Hafez al-Assad
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Ali Khamenei speaking after losing his close regional ally, Hafez al-Assad

Khamenei also denied the existence of proxy groups tied to the Islamic Republic, even though such groups are widely recognized globally as Iran’s proxies. Organizations like Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, and Hashd al-Shaabi have openly acknowledged their dependence on and allegiance to Iran.

Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, who was recently killed in an Israeli strike, repeatedly affirmed that Hezbollah relies entirely on Iran for its financial, military, and logistical support. This dependency is not unique to Hezbollah. Both the Houthis and Hamas have frequently acknowledged receiving financial and military assistance from Iran. Mahmoud al-Zahar, a senior Hamas leader, once disclosed that during a visit to Tehran, Qasem Soleimani personally handed him $22 million in cash, which Hamas representatives transported back to Gaza in suitcases. These statements from the leaders of these groups directly challenge Khamenei’s assertions that these forces operate independently and are not proxies of Iran.

Khamenei further claimed that the Islamic Republic does not need proxies and is capable of acting directly against the US and Israel if necessary. This assertion contradicts his admission just ten days earlier in another speech, where he acknowledged that Iran’s efforts to support Bashar al-Assad were thwarted by Israeli and US air forces.

Yahya Sinwar, at the moment of his demise at the hands of Israeli forces.
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Yahya Sinwar, at the moment of his demise at the hands of Israeli forces.

Not only did Khamenei deny the existence of Iran's proxy forces, but he also refused to acknowledge the evident setbacks faced by Iran and its allied groups in the region. While Israel has destroyed Hamas infrastructure in Gaza, eliminated many of its leaders, including Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, and targeted Hezbollah’s command network, Khamenei continues to claim victory. These statements starkly contrast with the on-the-ground realities. Regional and international analysts widely agree that Iran's regional policies have failed. Israel's military strategy has successfully pushed Hezbollah away from the border, limiting its access to Israeli territory. Despite these setbacks, Khamenei persists in his analyses, insisting that Hezbollah has not been defeated.

Khamenei’s refusal to accept the realities in the region and his continued reliance on flawed analyses stem more from obstinacy than from genuine miscalculation. Rather than acknowledging his mistakes, he attempts to reshape facts to align with his vision. This stubbornness has wasted Iran’s financial and human resources while deepening animosity among regional nations and governments toward Iran.

Moreover, Khamenei not only dismisses external realities but also attempts to silence domestic critics. In his recent speech, he targeted opponents of the Islamic Republic's regional policies, branding them as mercenaries. This follows earlier threats in which he accused dissenting analysts of treason and demanded punitive measures against them. This repressive approach highlights Khamenei's growing concern over the potential domestic fallout from his regional policy failures and their impact on the Islamic Republic’s stability.

Denying failures and silencing critics will not resolve any issues; rather, they will exacerbate internal dissatisfaction and further isolate the Islamic Republic both regionally and globally. This persistent denial and obstinacy have already inflicted significant costs on the Iranian people. Khamenei's insistence on opposing Syria's new government and risks not only deepening regional instability but also fueling anti-Iran sentiment among the Syrian population and neighboring countries.

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Resistance Front never acts upon Iran's orders - Zarif

Dec 23, 2024, 15:30 GMT+0

Iran's vice-president for strategic affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, says the Islamic Republic has no control over the so-called "Axis of Resistance", and that the militant groups have never acted upon Tehran's orders.

"The resistance fights for itself, for its own goals and land," Iranian VP Javad Zarif said in an interview on Monday.

"Those who claim that the Islamic Republic has weakened think of the resistance as the arms of the Islamic Republic; they see the resistance as our proxy force," he added. "However, history has proven that the resistance has never acted as Iran's proxy force."

"In the first and second 'True Promise' operations, it was Iran that responded to Israel, not the resistance," Zarif said, referring to Iran's April and October attacks against Israel. "Never has it been the case that Iran gives orders and the resistance acts; this is a false perception that the Zionist regime has propagated worldwide."

His comments came a day after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei denied that Iran uses proxy forces in the region, asserting that groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis act independently out of their own faith and beliefs, not as agents of the Islamic Republic.

In a meeting with religious eulogizers on Sunday, Khamenei addressed what he described as "absurd statements from Western and Israeli officials," dismissing the notion that Iran’s regional influence is based on the use of proxy forces.

"They constantly say that the Islamic Republic has lost its proxy forces in the region! This is another mistake! The Islamic Republic does not have proxy forces. Yemen fights because of its faith; Hezbollah fights because its faith gives it strength to fight; Hamas and Jihad fight because their beliefs compel them to do so," Khamenei said.

"They do not act as our proxies. If one day we want to take action, we will not need any proxy forces."

IRGC commander insists allied groups are self-reliant in warfare

Dec 23, 2024, 08:23 GMT+0

Despite Iran's allied militias facing major losses across the region, the IRGC's commander spoke of their victory, while implying that Iran does provide weapons to its armed allies in the Middle East.

Hossein Salami on Monday channeled remarks by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s comments from the previous day asserting that Iran does not operate a proxy network in the region but rather has ideological allies.

“The enemies aim to burden the Iranian people with events that are far from victories and claim that Iran has lost its regional allies," Salami said.

“Iran has not lost its arms [in the region]—are the sons of Lebanon not still standing? Has Palestine surrendered? We share the same ideals, beliefs, and convictions with the Lebanese and Yemenis.”

Huge swathes of Hezbollah's leadership and military infrastructure, as well as its operatives, have been wiped out since September, including assassinated leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Reiterating a statement made on Sunday by the Supreme Leader, the commander also denied that Iran supported arming the groups, which include the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Syria and Iraq.

"Everyone fights with their own capabilities; no one relies on anyone else. While we provide maximum spiritual and political support to the resistance front, they procure their own weapons just as we do," he said.

Just four days ago, the US issued more sanctions against Iran for what it called "support of proxies", referring to armed groups it deems terrorists such as the Houthis in Yemen.

It dates back years. In 2018, the US said that "In Iraq, credible reports indicate that Iran is transferring ballistic missiles to Shia militia groups. This comes as these militias carried out highly provocative attacks on U.S. diplomatic facilities in Baghdad and Basra in September, which we know that Iran did nothing to stop."

Since the collapse of Tehran’s ally, Bashar al-Assad, in Syria earlier this month, Tehran is scrambling to explain the loss, which many see as a strategic defeat.

In a speech on Sunday, Khamenei attempted to downplay the weakening and defeats of Tehran’s regional allies and proxies. "They constantly say that the Islamic Republic has lost its proxy forces in the region! This is another mistake! The Islamic Republic does not have proxy forces. Yemen fights because of its faith; Hezbollah fights because its faith gives it strength to fight; Hamas and Jihad fight because their beliefs compel them to do so."

Iran has invested tens of billions of dollars and thousands of forces into Syria for years, with bases across the country and a heavy military presence. Iranian officials have acknowledged that Tehran has spent at least $50 billion in Syria sine 2011, when it began to send military advisers and, later, a mix of Iranian forces along with Afghan, Pakistani and Iraqi militias to defend Assad’s embattled rule.

At the end of his remarks, Salami once again denied arming the Palestinian group in Gaza, Hamas, despite multiple reports over the years of training, funding and weapons provision.

In January, the Associated Press published an investigation of more than 150 videos and photos taken in the three months of combat since Hamas launched its October 7 attack on Israel, showing the militant group had amassed a diverse patchwork arsenal of weapons from around the world, including Iranian sniper rifles.

After October 7, the Israeli military recovered Iranian-made AZ111 mortar round fuses and M112 demolition charges which it said were used in the invasion which led to the deaths of at least 1,100.

As far back as 2014's Gaza war, the Israeli military has been intercepting weapons smuggled from Iran.

One shipment contained 40 long-range M-302 rockets, 181 mortar shells, and approximately 400,000 7.62 caliber rounds.

“Palestine is alive; have they surrendered? They are still fighting. The pillars of the resistance act based on their own motivations, and everyone fights with their own capabilities, relying on no one. We support the resistance front, but they produce their own weapons.”

Just before the October 7 attacks, hundreds of Hamas militia had traveled to Iran for combat training, according to intelligence seen by the Wall Street Journal. The report said around 500 had had been led by officers of the Quds Force.

Senior IRGC commander killed by Assad officer, not rebels - CGTN

Dec 22, 2024, 20:30 GMT+0

New information reveals that a commander in the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was killed by a Syrian officer serving in the army of embattled leader Bashar al-Assad in late November.

Iranian state media had previously attributed Kiumars Pourhashemi’s death to Assad's armed opposition forces.

On Sunday, December 22, the Chinese state-run CGTN's correspondent in Ankara reported, citing an Iranian security official, that Pourhashemi died after being shot by a Syrian officer during a meeting in a joint operations room in Aleppo.

According to the report by Yakup Aslan, the meeting included Iranian military advisors and Syrian army commanders and took place amid advances by rebel forces in the outskirts of Aleppo.

Earlier, on November 28, Iranian media had reported that Pourhashemi, also known as "Haj Hashem," was killed during attacks by Assad's opposition forces in Aleppo. The outlets referred to him as a senior advisor to Assad’s forces.

Aslan, a Turkish journalist whose reports are frequently cited by Turkish media, added in his report that IRGC commanders in the Aleppo operations room were pressuring Syrian army commanders to resist Assad's opponents and repel their attacks.

The report noted that IRGC commanders believed a counteroffensive against Assad’s opposition, supported by Russian airpower, was possible at the time. However, Syrian commanders hesitated to issue the necessary orders.

The Turkish journalist described the atmosphere in the Aleppo joint operations room as "tense." He added that during the meeting, "a Syrian general entered the room and opened fire," resulting in Pourhashemi’s death.

He characterized the incident as a reflection of "the deep collapse within the Syrian army" following the advances made by Assad’s opposition forces.

Armed opposition forces, in a surprise 11-day operation that began in Idlib and Aleppo, reached Damascus on December 9, bringing an end to five decades of Assad family rule in Syria.

Aslan quoted an Islamic Republic security official saying that the shooter who killed Pourhashemi belonged to a tribe that had withdrawn its support for Assad.

The official added that two months earlier, the Islamic Republic had provided the Syrian government with information and documents about the Syrian officer's connections to groups opposing Assad.

Tehran was one of Assad’s primary backers. Previously, two former members of Iran's parliament separately confirmed that the Iranian government spent at least $30 billion to keep Assad in power. By other estimates, Iran has spent upwards of $50 billion in the Syrian civil war.

On December 22, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed to reclaim Syria from Assad’s successors and urged the nation’s youth to resist the newly established government.

Observers view the recent developments in Syria as a blow to the Islamic Republic’s regional influence, believing that the end of Assad’s rule will shift the balance of power in the Middle East.

Barbara Leaf, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, emphasized on December 20, in response to an Iran International reporter's question, that the Islamic Republic should have no role in Syria’s future.

Iran condemns airstrikes on Yemen, accuses US of acting on Israel’s behalf

Dec 22, 2024, 19:37 GMT+0

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday condemned the attacks by the US and Israel on Yemen, saying the US is acting on behalf of Israel.

Speaking in a phone call with the Houthis’ top diplomat, Araghchi said the US’ Saturday air raids on Sana’a were part of a joint plan by the West and Israel “to destroy and weaken Islamic countries and dominate the region.”

The Iranian top diplomat praised “the resilience and honorable support of the Yemeni people for the oppressed people of Palestine,” referring to the Houthi rebels’ blockade of the Red Sea since November 2023 in solidarity with Hamas militants in Palestine.

“Despite all its crimes and aggressions, and its unlimited support from the US and certain other Western countries, Israel has failed to achieve its sinister goals,” Araghchi said.

Now is the time to overthrow Iran's government - Israeli minister

Dec 22, 2024, 17:53 GMT+0

Israel's science minister Gila Gamliel says a window of opportunity has opened to oust the Islamic Republic and replace it with a new government following the recent Israeli airstrikes against Iran's military assets and the weakening of its allies.

"After we severely damaged the arms of the Iranian octopus, and it is at its weakest following the damage to the missile array and air defense - a window of opportunity has opened to overthrow the regime," Gamliel said.

"Now is the time to act together with the free world to replace the Iranian regime," she added in a post on her X account.