Iranian drones among record Russian aerial barrage on Ukraine

"The change you're going to see is more focus on Iran," Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee to be US national security advisor, told CNBC in an interview.

"Maximum pressure, not only will it help stability in the Middle East, but it'll help stability in the Russia-Ukraine theater as well, as Iran provides ballistic missiles and literally thousands and thousands of drones that are going into that theater," he added.

The Republican congressman from Florida shares a strong pro-Israel and anti-Tehran stance with many of the incoming president's other top foreign policy picks.

In his last term, President Trump withdrew the United States from an international deal over Iran's disputed nuclear program and reimposed what his administration called a maximum pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic.

By ordering the assassination of a top Iranian military commander, Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in 2020, Trump earned the lasting enmity of Iran's ruling military and clerical establishment which has repeatedly vowed revenge.

US investigators have alleged that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sought to enlist an Afghan national to assassinate Trump before the US election, in charges Iran denies.

The reimposition of harsh sanctions enforcement which had eased somewhat under President Joe Biden may herald a new era of confrontation between the United States in Iran as conflict between US ally Israel and armed Iranian fighters rages on.

Waltz said Iran was an obstacle to peace in the Middle East and that oil sales to China were a key lifeline that needs to be cut off.

"As long as they are flushed with cash, the Middle East is just never going to have peace. Iran doesn't want the Middle East to be in peace," he said.

"China buys 90% of Iran's illicit oil, in roughly 2017, 2018, they were exporting 4 million barrels per day. By the end of Trump's first administration, it was down to around 300,000 to 400,000," he added. "So I think we'll be having some conversations with China about their purchases."

According to the Kyiv Independent, Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least four people and injured at least 37 over the past day, including a child.

Ukrainian air defenses shot down 59 of the 116 Iranian Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight, the Ukrainian Air Force said.

Russia’s drone attacks using Iranian-made UAVs have led to global sanctions on Tehran, for having targeted civilian areas.

"Another night, another worry," Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv's military administration, said on Telegram. "The enemy does not reduce the intensity of air attacks on Ukraine and Kyiv.”

Russia also attacked Ukraine with an Iskander-M or North Korean KN-23 ballistic missile, one Kh-35 guided aerial missile, and one Kh-31P guided aerial missile, according to the Kyiv Independent.

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko wrote on Telegram that shrapnel from around 10 downed drones landed in three main districts of the capital. Multiple buildings and power cables suffered damage in addition to casualties.

According to the Atlantic Council’s February analysis, Russia’s capacity as a leading weapons exporter has been damaged by the more than two years of war on Ukraine, meaning Iran has “become more dominant and attractive in the eyes of countries that previously depended on Russia’s supply of military equipment”.

However, with collaboration between Iran and Russia deepening, from military exercises to building a drone factory, the Atlantic Council report by Danny Citrinowicz said that “the current situation can create a joint venture between Iran and Russia that may increase their conventional mutual arms sales due to their high production capabilities”.

Citrinowicz said that Iran has sold more than two thousand drones to Russia alone until 2024, making millions of dollars from the sales, in spite of both nations being heavily sanctioned. Current estimates of drone deliveries range from 4-8 thousand units.

“Iran has no political or legal restrictions that prevent it from selling these weapons around the world; it is apparently not afraid that these products will fall into the hands of dangerous foreign parties,” he warned.

However, it is not only drones which Iran is exporting. Earlier this month, the EU sanctioned seven individuals and seven entities following Iran’s missile and drone transfers to Russia.

“This decision follows the indication by the European Council in March 2024 that, were Iran to transfer ballistic missiles and related technology to Russia for use against Ukraine, the EU would be prepared to respond swiftly, including with new and significant restrictive measures,” a statement said.

“Today’s designation includes individuals and entities responsible for the development and transfer of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), missiles and related technology to Russia in support of its war of aggression against Ukraine, and to armed groups and entities undermining peace and security in the Middle East and the Red Sea region,” the statement added.

The sources - a European diplomat, a European intelligence official and a U.S. official - said it was not clear why Iran did not supply launchers with the Fath-360 missiles, raising questions about when and if the weapons will be operational.

The U.S. official, who like the other sources spoke on condition of anonymity, said Iran had not delivered the launchers at the time of the U.S. announcement about Iran's delivery of the weapons. The European intelligence official said without elaborating that they did not expect Iran to provide launchers.

Two experts told Reuters there could be several reasons why the launchers were not sent. One is that Russia may plan to modify trucks to carry the missiles, as Iran has done. Another is that by withholding the launchers, Iran is allowing space for new talks with Western powers on easing tensions.

The Russian defense ministry declined to comment.

The U.S. National Security Council did not immediately respond to a request for comment and the Pentagon declined to comment.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Tehran denies providing Moscow with the missiles or with thousands of drones that Kyiv and Western officials have said Russia uses against military targets and to destroy civilian infrastructure, including Ukraine’s electrical grid.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sept. 10 that Iran had delivered the Fath-360s to Russia and would “likely use them within weeks in Ukraine.”

The missile would pose an additional challenge for Ukraine, which is constantly adapting its air defenses to innovations by Russian forces. Iran's semi-official Fars news agency says the missile travels at four times the speed of sound when approaching targets.

Blinken said the missiles threatened European security and would be fired against short-range targets, allowing Russia to reserve more of its extensive arsenal for targets beyond the front lines. The Fath-360 has a range of up to 75 miles (121 km).

The United States, Germany, Britain and France imposed new sanctions on Iran, and the EU said the bloc was considering fresh measures targeting Iran's aviation sector.

The Kremlin at that time declined to confirm its receipt of the missiles but acknowledged that its cooperation with Iran included “the most sensitive areas.”

Blinken did not say how many Fath-360s Iran supplied to Russia or when they were sent.

Reuters determined through shipping data that a Russian freighter sanctioned by Washington, the Port Olya-3, made voyages between Iran’s Caspian Sea port of Amirabad and the Russian port of Olya several times between May and Sept. 12.

Fabian Hinz, an expert on Iranian missiles with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said he could not confirm that Tehran withheld the launchers.

Ballistic missiles require specifically designed launchers in order to be fired.

According to Hinz, one reason Iran didn't send launchers may be that the civilian trucks that Iran modified to launch these and other missiles are not robust enough to operate in rough terrain during Ukraine's harsh winter. Iran modifies trucks made by Mercedes and other companies and turns them into easily disguised missile launchers, he said.

That suggests, he continued, that Russia could modify its own military-grade vehicles.

"A commercial, off-the-shelf Mercedes truck is just not that off-road capable," he said

David Albright, a former U.N. nuclear inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security, also could not say whether Iran delivered the launchers.

But he noted that Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and other Iranian officials will be meeting with European officials on the sidelines of next week’s U.N. General Assembly in New York to test the potential for diplomacy on Tehran’s nuclear program, regional tensions and other disputes.

“It could be that they (Iran) are holding back the launchers to provide a little space for these talks,” he said. “One can imagine that if there are Iranian missiles raining down (on Ukraine) there would be condemnation at the General Assembly.”

But he was skeptical of any progress, saying he doubted Iran would make the necessary compromises.

The G7 statement, seen as a rebuke to Tehran's growing military ties to Moscow, highlighted that despite international warnings, Iran has continued to arm Russia, directly contributing to the death and destruction in Ukraine.

The ministers stressed the critical role Iranian-made drones and missiles have played in Russia's indiscriminate attacks on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure.

According to the G7, "Iran must immediately cease all support to Russia's illegal and unjustifiable war against Ukraine and halt such transfers of ballistic missiles, UAVs, and related technology." The statement emphasized that these actions pose a direct threat not only to Ukraine but to European and international security as well.

The G7 vowed to hold Iran accountable for its deepening role in the war, noting that further punitive measures were already in motion. This comes as part of a broader effort to curb Iran’s escalating involvement in aiding Russia, a partnership that the G7 sees as undermining global stability and international law.

Iran downplays sanctions but stresses dialogue

In recent weeks, European nations have moved quickly to counter Iran’s military assistance to Russia. The European Troika—comprising the UK, France, and Germany—released a joint statement condemning the transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia. They have since imposed sanctions on Iran’s aerospace industries and are signaling their intent to suspend all air services to the country.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, dismissed the latest sanctions imposed by the US, UK, and the European Union on Iran, signaling Tehran's defiance in the face of Western pressure. “Tehran will continue its path with strength,” he said, framing the sanctions as futile attempts to halt Iran’s military cooperation with Russia. However, Araghchi also emphasized that Iran remains open to dialogue, though he stressed that negotiations must be based on "mutual respect, not on threats and pressure." He denounced sanctions as tools of "pressure and confrontation, not cooperation."

The UK has targeted seven individuals and entities linked to Iran’s aerospace sector, while the US has gone a step further by sanctioning Iran Air for facilitating the transfer of these missiles. European nations have followed suit, with several moving to cancel bilateral air service agreements with other Iranian airlines.

West united in condemning missile deliveries

The US Treasury Department confirmed earlier this month that Russia received its first shipment of short-range ballistic missiles from Iran. Satellite images published by European media revealed a Russian cargo ship, "Port Olya 3," transporting the missiles across the Caspian Sea. Maxar Technologies, an intelligence company, captured the ship docked at an Iranian port before it vanished from radar. Ukrainian sources reported that the shipment contained approximately 220 Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missiles, weapons that could be deployed in Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine.

Despite overwhelming evidence, Iran’s state airline, Iran Air, has denied any involvement in the military transfers. In a statement to Dideban Iran, Abolfazl Zohrevand, a member of Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of Parliament accused Western nations of “fabricating allegations” as part of a broader campaign to undermine Iran’s sovereignty.

“These countries recently sanctioned Iran Air despite the airline having no involvement in military matters,” Zohrevand stated, calling the sanctions a form of "unacceptable interference in Iran’s domestic policies." He argued that the West, particularly the US and Europe, was using Iran as a scapegoat to deflect attention from their own failures in Ukraine.

Tehran looking for easy ways to reduce sanctions

Meanwhile, reports from The Washington Post indicate that President Masoud Pezeshkian's administration is signaling a cautious interest in re-engaging with the West, potentially in pursuit of sanctions relief. However, with Iran embroiled in the Hamas and Hezbollah conflict with Israel and the lack of a new nuclear deal, the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough seems more remote than ever.

Despite the country’s deepening crises, Pezeshkian has appointed key figures like Abbas Araghchi and former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, both of whom were instrumental in negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal. However, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s skepticism toward Western engagement casts doubt on the likelihood of any significant diplomatic shift.

As Iran walks a tightrope between its military alignment with Russia and its economic needs, it finds itself increasingly isolated and under mounting international pressure.

Ukraine’s foreign ministry announced on Friday that September 13 marks the anniversary of the downing of the first Iranian drone over the country.

The United States first warned in July 2022 that Iran was preparing to supply Russia with battlefield drones, and September 13 marked the anniversary of the first Shahed drone being shot down by Ukraine.

Russia soon began large scale use of the Iranian drones in attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure and civilian targets. The Shahed 136 drones have been used alongside cruise and ballistic missile attacks to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. While Western nations have supplied more air defense systems to Ukraine, the cost imbalance remains significant. Shooting down the relatively cheap drones with expensive missiles drains Ukraine’s defense resources, making it a costly challenge to maintain consistent protection against the barrage of incoming threats.

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Western media have reported that Russia has begun producing Iranian Shahed drones at a factory in Tatarstan. However, it remains unclear what percentage of the drones currently used are being shipped from Iran versus those manufactured domestically in Russia. The Shahed drones carry a payload of around 40 kilograms that can be devastating against soft civilian targets.

News of Iran delivering short-range ballistic missiles to Russia has dominated headline this month. Western countries are certain that up to 200 Fath-360 missiles with a range of 120 kilometers, and a 150- kilogram warhead, have arrived in Russia.

The Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with the IRGC, described the Fateh-360 missiles in October 2022 as precision-guided, solid-fuel missiles equipped with bunker-busting warheads. Tasnim maintained that the missiles were upgraded with a combined and optical guidance system, these missiles are designed to resist electronic warfare and accurately destroy targets without interference.

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The United States and top European powers imposed new sanctions this week against Iran and its state carrier Iran Air for the deliveries - the first missiles Iran is alleged to have delivered to Russia since it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Russia has been producing a new long-range attack drone with Chinese engines and parts, Reuters reported Friday, adding that the new drones have been used in attacks against Ukraine. The new drones would likely “reduce Russian reliance on Iranian drones”, sources from a European intelligence agency were quoted as telling Reuters.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Friday that the bloc was mulling new sanctions on Iran's aviation sector in response to the missile flights.

"The European Union has repeatedly strongly cautioned Iran against transfers of ballistic missiles to Russia," Borrel said, adding that the EU would "respond swiftly and in coordination with international partners".

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman accused the EU of acting on misinformation and warned that Western sanctions will be met with an unspecified response from the Islamic Republic. However, the government apparently allowed one well-known commentator to criticize the missile delivery in local media, and a lawmaker confirmed the news, despite denials by the foreign ministry.

Iranian government-owned media and semi-independent outlets under government control have largely remained silent on the drone and missile delivery controversy. Many Iranians resent the Islamic government’s foreign adventures that have brought on sanctions and isolation, seriously hurting the country’s economy.