Timing, targets of Israeli counterstrike on Iran come into focus

"Iran Air was the only airline in our country flying to Europe, and considering the new sanctions of the European Union against Iran Air, not a single Iranian airplane will fly to Europe now," said Maqsood Asadi Samani, Director of the Association of Iranian Airlines.

On Monday, the European Union introduced sanctions targeting Iran Air, Mahan Air, and Saha Airlines. The sanctions also covered various industrial and transport companies as well as related officials, businessmen and military personnel.

The United States and Western allies accuse Iran of using its civilian air fleet to transfer missiles to Russia for its war in Ukraine - charges Tehran denies.

Asadi Samani said there had been significant demand for flights from Iran to European destinations which will now likely now be met by foreign airlines.

"Flights to Europe in this situation will probably be made through connecting flights in intermediate countries, such as Turkey and the UAE," he said, adding that passengers from Iran will now have to rely on such routes to reach Europe.

Jafar Yazerloo, the spokesperson for the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization, said Iran Air proactively suspended the flights to avoid the consequences of not being allowed to land at European airports and to prevent passengers from being stranded both inside and outside of Iran.

Yazerloo also noted that efforts are underway through diplomatic channels and other relevant organizations to find alternatives for passengers affected by the sanctions.

The European sanctions against Iran’s civil aviation industry are particularly significant, as Iran Air reportedly operates an average of 24 weekly flights each way to at least nine European cities, including Paris, London, Frankfurt, and Rome, according to information obtained by Aviacionline via Cirium.

Last month, the United States sanctioned Iran Air after accusing Tehran of supplying Russia with short-range ballistic missiles. The US Treasury accused Iran Air of having transported goods "on behalf of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL)."

Iran has been deeply involved in Russia’s war effort in Ukraine since mid-2022, providing drones, spare parts and training. However, the provision of missiles is viewed by Western powers as a significant escalation warranting a strong response.

“Heightened oil supply security concerns are set against a backdrop of a global market that – as we have been highlighting for some time – looks adequately supplied," the IEA said in a monthly report on Tuesday.

"For now, supply keeps flowing, and in the absence of a major disruption, the market is faced with a sizable surplus in the new year,” the Paris-based watchdog added.

An October 1 missile attack by key OPEC-member Iran on Israel sent oil prices soaring as investors fretted over a potential supply disruption from an Israeli counterattack on Iran's oil facilities.

Most of those gains have evaporated however, as buoyant global supply and lackluster demand in China sapped price momentum while no retaliation has yet materialized.

The IEA, which manages developed countries' emergency oil stocks, said government oil storage stood at over 1.2 billion barrels and spare capacity in OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, were at all time highs.

"As supply developments unfold, the IEA stands ready to act if necessary," the agency said.

Oil sites off the table

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured US President Joe Biden in a phone call last week that Israel will refrain from attacking Iran's nuclear or energy facilities, US newspapers reported citing officials.

Oil prices tumbled nearly 5% toward a two-week low on Tuesday, driven by the U.S. media reports which eased fears of a supply disruption.

In response to the escalating conflict following its October attack on Israel, Tehran reportedly moved its tankers away from Kharg Island, one of its main oil export terminals in the Persian Gulf – a precautionary measure taken to shield the tankers from potential Israeli retaliatory strikes.

Iran had around 40 million barrels of floating oil storage in early October, enough to continue exports to China for one month.

While it is unclear whether Kharg Island is among Israel's potential targets, recent data obtained by Iran International shows that Iran's oil loadings have plummeted by nearly 70% in early October, indicating significant disruptions in its oil export capabilities.

As a major oil exporter and OPEC member, Iran’s oil exports make up 65% of its government budget and 8% of its GDP – though it recently fell short of realizing a quarter of its projected oil revenues.

Despite its escalatory attack on Israel in October, Tehran has since signaled an apparent desire to avoid an all-out war while also asserting its readiness for it if necessary.

The reports cheered markets, and oil prices fell nearly 5% to almost a two-week low on Tuesday as fears of a supply disruption eased.

Israel has publicly pledged to carry out a painful counterattack for an Iranian Oct. 1 attack on its soil with around 180 ballistic missiles but has yet to specify targets.

The Biden administration has in the past two weeks counseled Israel to carry out a more limited counterstrike aimed at preventing a full-scale war.

In a Wednesday phone call, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Joe Biden that he is planning to strike military infrastructure rather than oil or nuclear facilities in Iran, two officials familiar with the matter told The Washington Post.

The account was corroborated by two officials cited by the New York Times.

One of the two officials told the Washington Post that Israel’s retaliatory action would be calibrated to avoid the perception of “political interference in the US elections".

Some US allies in the region have been lobbying Washington to prevent Israel from striking oil facilities in Iran for fear that their own oil infrastructure would be hit in a counterattack, according to reports by Reuters and the Wall Street Journal.

They have conveyed to Washington that they disapprove of Israeli or American use of their airspace for any attack on Iran or having their land used as a launchpad for any strike, the WSJ reported last week.

‘Netanyahu’s stance softened’

During the Wednesday discussion with Biden, Netanyahu was in a “more moderated place” than he had previously been, the US official told The Post, describing the call between the two leaders.

“The apparent softening of the prime minister’s stance factored into Biden’s decision to send a powerful missile defense system to Israel,” the report said citing both officials.

Pentagon announced on Sunday a US air defense battery will be stationed in Israel to bolster air defense against Iran's potential ballistic missiles, amid preparations for a possible Iranian response to a highly-anticipated Israeli retaliatory attack.

"At the direction of the President, Secretary Austin authorized the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery and associated crew of US military personnel to Israel to help bolster Israel's air defenses following Iran's unprecedented attacks against Israel on April 13 and again on October 1," the Pentagon's press secretary announced in a statement.

‘Diplomacy fails’

Since the October 1 missile barrage, Iran has appeared to signal its effort to avoid an all-out war with Israel.

“We are not seeking war, although we are fully prepared for it. We believe that diplomacy must work to prevent a major crisis in the region,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said during his regional tour which took him to Lebanon, Iraq and Oman.

However, he ended his tour in Muscat with a press conference in which he said “Iran does not see a basis for [continuation of indirect] talks with the US until the current crisis is resolved.”

Some observers, including former senior lawmaker Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh and veteran journalist Mohammad Aghazadeh, believe Araghchi’s remarks at the end of his extensive diplomatic efforts signal the “failure of diplomacy”, and indicate that “there is no other choice but war.”

Similar sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United Kingdom were enacted on Monday to curb Tehran's missile development efforts.

Tuesday’s sanctions by the Albanese government target two directors and a senior official in Iran’s Aerospace Industries Organization, the director of the Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group, and the commercial director of the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group.

The entities, which enhance Tehran’s military capabilities, have previously faced sanctions over their involvement in the country’s missile development and military activities. The Aerospace Industries Organization develops and produces military and civilian aerospace technologies, focusing on ballistic missiles. The Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group manufactures missile systems, while the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group specializes in liquid-fueled missiles.

“Iran’s 1 October launch of over 180 ballistic missiles against Israel was a dangerous escalation that increased the risk of a wider regional war,” the Australian statement read.

Since Iran’s recent missile barrage on Israel, its second direct attack in six months, both the region and the West are on high alert for Israel's anticipated retaliation.

According to The Washington Post, Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu has given assurance to the Biden administration that Israel will refrain from attacking Iran’s nuclear or energy facilities.

Some US allies in the region have lobbied Washington to prevent Israel from striking oil facilities in Iran for fear that their own oil infrastructure would be hit in a counterattack, according to reports by Reuters and the Wall Street Journal. They have conveyed to Washington that they disapprove of Israeli or American use of their airspace for any attack on Iran or having their land used as a launchpad for any strike, the WSJ reported last week.

The US, meanwhile, expanded its sanctions last Friday, targeting Iran's so-called “ghost fleet” of ships and related companies operating in the United Arab Emirates, Liberia, Hong Kong, and other jurisdictions that reportedly facilitate the transport and sale of Iranian oil to buyers in Asia. Additionally, the State Department designated a network of companies based in Suriname, India, Malaysia, and Hong Kong for allegedly coordinating the sale and transport of petroleum and petroleum products from Iran.

The UK’s sanctions, announced this week, targeted senior figures in Iran’s army, air force and organizations linked to Iran’s ballistic and cruise missile development.

The EU sanctions, approved during a meeting of the bloc’s foreign ministers in Luxembourg on Monday, targeted seven individuals and seven entities involved in the transfer of military technology to Russia.

“Today’s designation includes individuals and entities responsible for the development and transfer of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), missiles and related technology to Russia in support of its war of aggression against Ukraine, and to armed groups and entities undermining peace and security in the Middle East and the Red Sea region,” read a statement by the European Council.

Pledging allegiance to the Islamic Republic of Iran and its Supreme Leader, chanting death to Israel, death to America, is part of the daily routine for Lebanese kids going to schools linked to Hezbollah, said Hussein El Hajj Hassan.

Speaking over Zoom from Ottawa, Hussain recalls how young boys in his community were initially targeted by Hezbollah for religious indoctrination.

After being scouted, they would learn how to operate guns and weapons and taught that dying was a worthy cause of their mission, according to Hussain.

According to a report by the Anti-Defamation League, Hezbollah- run educational institutions and their umbrella organizations appear to reach more than 100,000 children a year in Lebanon.

"To believe in the culture of death. They want them to believe that their path is to die," he said.

They would start out by training in Lebanon and then some would go to Iran for what Hussain described as "intense training."

Some of these boys, who were in their early teens, died while training in Iran, and were later being adorned with ‘Martyr posters' and death announcements throughout his Beirut suburb, according to Hussein.

"Sometimes they would shoot while they were running during training, and some would be injured...others would get killed. But it's a risk they were willing to take."

“The society believed that Iran is the source. That they are providing all goods to Lebanon and to Hezbollah.”

Hezbollah was painted as a resistance movement existing to serve Lebanon, he said.

'A society within society'

Hussein said the structure of Hezbollah was very deep and secretive, but at the same time, its operatives and supporters in his Beirut suburb were open and obvious.

He described seeing men with weapons like Kalashnikovs in the streets, guarding buildings that were clearly used by Hezbollah agents. Hezbollah even had their own jails and religious courts, he recalled, saying it was like Hezbollah had created its 'own society within a society. '

"What we're seeing today in the war, Israel's hitting buildings. Hezbollah is hiding inside. We know that. When I saw that, I knew, I saw these buildings before."

"Hezbollah operatives owned gas stations and restaurants, all connected to a private landline network, separate from the rest of Lebanon," Hussain said. He added that they relied on pagers and walkie-talkies until September, when thousands of these devices, rigged by Israel, exploded, killing scores and injuring thousands of militiamen.

Hussein's mother, a Shia Muslim, sent her sons to a Christian school to receive a formal education, that included learning in Arabic, English and French. His dad, a supporter of Hezbollah, was absent from his life. He recounts himself as being lucky for that.

He said some of his uncles and cousins were – and may still be – Hezbollah members.

Hussein believes his cousins and other community members joined the ranks for either money, religious purposes or the desire for power.

Despite his mother’s efforts, he still wasn’t completely shielded from indoctrination, with the media he watched and society he lived in advocating against Jews and Israel.

"On television shows they would show Jews as evil, as a state or as people who just want to kill or want to conquer."

His mother is now dying of cancer, and Hussein can’t be with her. He feels like Hezbollah robbed him of a life in his motherland.

How Hezbollah held him hostage

While Hussain has gratitude for his new life and new beginnings – he admits he didn’t want it.

“No one wants to start from scratch. That's the cost I'm paying for. What Hezbollah has done to Lebanon.”

He recounts terrifying moments with Hezbollah that he described as life changing, leading to his decision to flee and seek political refugee status in Canada.

Hussain was protesting Hezbollah’s intervention in Syria in 2013, rallying outside the Iranian embassy in Beirut with his friends, when he says Hezbollah forces stormed out of the Iran embassy, indiscriminately attacking while the Lebanese army allegedly stood by and did nothing.

“We were protesting peacefully. We were attacked. And one of the leaders of these protests was shot in the abdomen and killed,” said Hussain.

His friend Hashem Salman was killed.

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He watched it all unfold, pleading for help.

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In another incident, he says he was talking outside his friend’s Beirut home, when a Hezbollah operative threw an explosive device at the two men. Hussain and his friend escaped unharmed, but he knew it would likely happen again – and the next time he might not be so lucky.

The assassination attempt, he believes likely resulted from his work as a journalist and as a peace activist, advocating for friendship between Lebanon and Israel.

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After escaping near death, he said he received a call from the Lebanese army, telling him to stop writing articles as a journalist if he wanted to survive. He said the problem runs deeper than Hezbollah.

“It's not just Hezbollah. It's the absence of safety provided by the state, the government, from the police.”

The killing of Hassan Nasrallah

While Hossein doesn’t want war, he believes that military intervention was the only way to deal with Hezbollah. At least as a first step, he said.

He sees Iran as a wild card and can’t predict what move the Islamic Republic will make.

Does Iran want to move more towards nuclear negotiations and give up on Hezbollah as a bargaining tool in talks with the West or is the country weak, and unable to withstand Israel?

Whatever the answer is, will determine, how to further dismantle Hezbollah after Israeli military intervention, he said.

He believes that Hezbollah had become powerful through Iran, and its fundraising through crime. According to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), critical of Iran and its allies, Hezbollah’s overseas revenue streams include drug trafficking, blood diamonds, illicit timber and even human trafficking.

The killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of Hezbollah, who was assassinated in an Israeli air attack on Beirut last month, brought Hossein both shock and relief.

He felt Nasrallah was always “untouchable” but gained a sense of calm knowing he was really gone, feeling that it brought justice to his friend Hashem who he said was killed by Hezbollah operatives in the 2013 protest.

"We saw the police standing and just watching, looking. And there was a moment where I tried to run towards them. I came to the soldiers, and I was like, please take us from this area. And he pushed me back. He said, we don't have the orders to intervene to do anything."

Hossein told Iran International he is seeing a therapist to heal his wounds, but the wounds of his homeland Lebanon, cannot heal, until Hezbollah and Iran cease to coerce Lebanon into the failed state it has become, he said.