Who will be Iran's next national security chief?

One of the senior officials of Hezbollah described this incident as the largest security infiltration by Israel since the establishment of Hezbollah. This operation once again demonstrates Israel's technological, intelligence, and operational superiority over the Islamic Republic and its proxy groups.

In this operation, Israel showcased its technological advantage by infiltrating Hezbollah's communication systems, and this also highlighted Israel's superiority in intelligence operations.

Furthermore, Israel was able to convert this technological and intelligence advantage into operational superiority, targeting several thousand Hezbollah members in a complex operation.

The psychological impact of this operation, which represented a form of humiliation for Hezbollah, is far more significant than its operational aspect. This operation bolstered the confidence of Israeli intelligence agencies, which had been called into question following Hamas's attack on October 7.

On the other hand, it damaged the morale of Hezbollah forces, showing that their intelligence and security structures are vulnerable and permeable.

In recent months, Israel demonstrated its technological, intelligence, and operational superiority by targeting Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, in Tehran. That operation was carried out under highly sensitive security conditions during one of the most protected events, namely the inauguration of a new president in Iran on July 31.

A similar pattern was observed in the assassination of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior IRGC commander in Syria and Lebanon, where an Israeli F-35 aircraft precisely targeted Zahedi's residence with a missile fired from the Golan Heights, killing him along with several other IRGC commanders in April.

Before this, Israel had assassinated Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in November 2020, who was responsible for the Islamic Republic's military nuclear program, reportedly using a remote-controlled machine gun.

In contrast, the Islamic Republic and its proxy groups largely rely on mass missile and drone attacks against Israel. Recent examples include Iran's failed April 13 attack on Israel, Hezbollah's rocket and drone strikes on northern Israel in recent months, and recent missile attacks by Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis, which generally lack precision.

In fact, the Islamic Republic and its proxy groups have so far been unable to directly access and assassinate Israeli commanders and officials.

In the latest case, Israel announced that it had thwarted Hezbollah's attempt to assassinate Avi Kohavi, the former head of the Israeli army.

Another important point regarding the recent Israeli operation and the explosion of Hezbollah members' pagers is that Mojtaba Amani, the Iranian ambassador in Beirut, was also among the injured in this incident. This highlights the close relations between Hezbollah and the Islamic Republic's ambassador, which have existed since Hezbollah's founding and are not particularly hidden.

Two other significant aspects of this Israeli operation, especially concerning the injury of the Iranian ambassador, are noteworthy.

First, it reflects Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence's determination to confront Hezbollah and the Islamic Republic. Second, the Islamic Republic is under increased pressure from its supporters to respond to Israel following the injury of its ambassador, especially since it has yet to respond to Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran.

In the two months since Haniyeh's killing, IRGC commanders have continuously spoken of a hard revenge, but their supporters so far have only heard promises.

Now that the Iranian ambassador in Beirut has also been injured, pressure on the IRGC has intensified. Israel continues its attacks, while IRGC commanders have limited themselves to ineffective speeches.

Finally, this Israeli operation against Hezbollah members complicates the situation for the Biden administration.

The Biden government is consistently trying to prevent an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel and does not want to witness the outbreak of such a war just 50 days before the U.S. elections, potentially involving the US in this conflict.

However, Netanyahu seems unconcerned about Biden's considerations and continues to advance his actions against the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah. In this context, the US State Department quickly responded, stating it was unaware of this operation and urged the Islamic Republic to avoid escalating tensions in the region.

In a Tuesday address to the country’s Olympic and Paralympic teams, Khamenei called on officials to compensate athletes who withdraw from matches against Israel, describing it as a "sacrifice" for national and religious ideals.

The directive is nothing new in Iran where athletes face pressure to forfeit matches against Israeli opponents, but with waning compliance, the country's supreme leader reiterated the country's hardline approach.

Some athletes are even going as far as shaking hands with Israeli competitors as cracks begin to show, a gesture that would have been unthinkable under Khamenei’s system.

Last year, Iran’s Weightlifting Federation (IRIWF) imposed a lifetime ban on Mostafa Rajaei after he shook hands with an Israeli athlete at the World Masters Championships in Kraków. Rajaei, who secured second place in his category and stood on the podium draped in the Iranian flag, greeted Israel's Maksim Svirsky, who finished third.

The two were photographed shaking hands and conversing, sparking outrage from the IRIWF and the Iranian government, which prohibits its athletes from engaging directly with Israelis. The IRIWF condemned Rajaei's actions as an "unforgivable" violation.

100%

Iran’s hardline stance against Israel in sports has become a longstanding policy since 1979, with athletes pressured by government-controlled sports federations to either forfeit or intentionally lose matches. Those who comply are often rewarded handsomely. Some reports suggest that athletes who refuse to compete against Israel receive rewards equivalent to gold medalists.

"Our athlete refuses to compete or play against a Zionist opponent, and because of this, they pay a price. We must not neglect the well-being of this athlete," Khamenei said. The Iranian leader also emphasized that it is the government’s duty to address the livelihood and employment needs of the athletes, many of whom are under immense financial strain.

But as the Islamic Republic tries to uphold its anti-Israel stance, more athletes are fleeing the country to seek freedom. Since the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom uprising and the death of Mahsa Amini, the number of defecting athletes has skyrocketed.

The International Olympic Committee’s Refugee Team included 14 Iranian athletes in the 2024 Paris Olympics, athletes who had fled Iran due to political repression and the forced policies within the sports sector.

Iranian judoka Saeid Mollaei, left Iran and since competed under Mongolia’s flag, facing off against Israeli opponents regularly in global competitions.

This wave of defections has been fueled not only by the government’s anti-Israel policy but also by the corruption in Iran’s sports federations. Female athletes, in particular, face additional challenges due to the mandatory hijab, which has sparked international criticism.

Khamenei has also praised athletes who dedicate their victories to the Palestinian cause, such as those who have offered their medals to Ismail Haniyeh and taken photos with the Palestinian flag. He described these acts as "a display of spiritual strength and self-confidence of the Iranian nation" against its enemies. According to Khamenei, such gestures “carry a lot of meaning in the world."

In this week's address, Khamenei commended Iranian women athletes for wearing the hijab during international events, seeing this as a sign of their "national, religious, and Islamic identity."

He even went so far as to praise male athletes who refuse to shake hands with women during award ceremonies, calling it "meaningful" and a demonstration of "self-confidence."

The sudden disappearance of the data has sparked concerns over government transparency, with critics accusing authorities of attempting to downplay the ongoing issue of child marriages in the country.

“Here’s yet another statistic that has become classified! The statistics on newborns from mothers aged 10 to 14 have been removed from the National Organization for Civil Registration’s website. Last year, around 1,500 children were born to mothers under the age of 14,” wrote Iranian journalist Marziyeh Mahmoodi on X Sunday.

Additionally, in a piece published on Etemad earlier this month, Iranian commentator Abbas Abdi also revealed that the organization, which previously provided weekly birth statistics categorized by the mother’s age, has now entirely omitted these figures from public access.

“I anonymously contacted their office and was told, ‘Because a certain newspaper published the statistics and the issue of child marriage became widespread, we were ordered not to publish the data anymore,’” Abdi wrote in a piece published in Etemad.

He added, “I asked, ‘Hasn't there been an order to stop this tragedy of pregnancies among girls under 14?’ They responded, ‘No. The only order is not to publish the statistics!’” He emphasized that access to accurate information is crucial for addressing societal issues, calling the decision both illegal and detrimental to effective policy making.

In 2020, 364 babies were born to girls under the age of 15, according to a report by IranWire citing the Statistical Center of Iran, the latest such figures available. This means that the number of babies born to girls under the age of 15 in Iran has surged by an alarming 312%, rising from 364 in 2020 to around 1,500 in 2023.

Last year, a report from the Research Center of the Iranian Parliament, revealed that 184,000 marriages involving girls under the age of 15 were registered in Iran between 2017 and 2022.

However, Iran's Statistical Center recorded around 25,900 cases of girls under 15 getting married in 2022, less than the 32,000 such cases registered in 2021, suggesting discrepancies in the data released by the government with a significantly lower figure reported by Iran’s government backed Statistical Center.

Despite global standards considering individuals under 18 as "children", child marriages are allowed from the age of 13 for girls and 15 for boys in Iran according to Article 1041 of the Iranian Civil Code.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has consistently emphasized policies promoting population growth, fertility, and early marriages, setting a goal to boost the population to 150 million by 2050.

In line with these goals, the Rejuvenation of the Population and Protection of the Family (RPPF) law, was enacted by Parliament in 2021 under Khamenei’s directive. The law imposes penalties for actions deemed to oppose childbearing and early marriages, placing population growth above concerns for children's rights.

The statement comes as Iran continues its crackdown on dissent, while global pressure mounts on Tehran to end its repression of civil society.

Two years after Mahsa Amini's death in custody, which sparked the nationwide Woman, Life, Freedom protests, the Iranian government continues to face international criticism for its human rights abuses.

In a joint statement, the foreign ministers of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand condemned Iran's violent suppression of women and girls and urged Tehran to halt its use of force to enforce mandatory hijab laws.

"We stand with women and girls in Iran, and Iranian human rights defenders, across all segments of society in their ongoing daily fight for human rights and fundamental freedoms," the ministers declared, emphasizing their ongoing commitment to holding Iranian officials accountable through sanctions and visa restrictions.

Despite international outcry, the so-called Noor plan, which enforces mandatory hijab laws across the country is still on the streets. The plan, which has led to arrest of women protesting for their rights, was criticized during Pezeshkian's presidential campaign. Yet, under his leadership, the measures continue unabated.

The UN Fact-Finding Mission’s March report on the Mahsa movement labeled Iran's repression of protests and discrimination against women as crimes against humanity. The UN has also recently branded it "gender apartheid".

"These acts form part of a widespread and systematic attack directed against the civilian population in Iran, namely against women, girls, boys, and men who have demanded freedom, equality, dignity, and accountability," said Sara Hossain, the chair of the mission.

As Iran continues its crackdown, with reports of extrajudicial killings, torture, and gender-based persecution, the international community has called for more decisive action. The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) Vice Chair Eric Ueland urged the US government to support efforts to hold Iranian officials accountable, including a Security Council referral to the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity.

“We urge the Biden administration to continue supporting the United Nations Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Iran and to support a Security Council referral of the situation in Iran to the International Criminal Court for investigation of crimes against humanity against those asserting freedom of religion or belief.”

“The time is long overdue for Iranian regime officials who repress those seeking freedom of religion or belief to face accountability,” said USCIRF Commissioner Susie Gelman. “The Biden administration should unify a coalition of like-minded countries to impose joint sanctions on Iranian regime officials complicit in restrictions on religious freedom in Iran.”

Iran’s leaders, under the grip of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, remain defiant. Pezeshkian's earlier critiques of the harsh policies ring hollow as his government continues to implement such measures.

Western governments have responded with continued sanctions but to no avail as Iran finds ways to bypass them. US lawmakers have also criticized the Biden administration for its failure to fully enforce the MAHSA Act, which mandates sanctions on Iranian officials involved in human rights abuses.

"Two years after the murder of Mahsa Amini, women in Iran still face an oppressive regime every day," said US Senator Jim Banks, highlighting the administration's failure to impose sanctions on Iran’s Supreme Leader.

US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Ranking Member Senator Jim Risch has criticized the Biden admin for its failure to enforce the MAHSA Act sanctions even though the act was passed in April.

"Two years after the murder of Mahsa Amini, women in Iran still face an oppressive regime every day. Congress passed the MAHSA Act in April, but the Biden-Harris Admin still hasn’t enforced its sanctions. We must deny the regime the resources it uses for oppression and terrorism," he said.

The global support for Iranian women and human rights defenders remains strong. The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a statement marking the anniversary, reaffirmed Paris' commitment to standing with Iranian women in their fight for freedom.

UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Iran, Mai Sato echoed the support, noting that “despite Tehran's efforts to silence women, their defiance remains unwavering.”

The news was announced by Iran's judiciary news agency, Mizan, on Tuesday, reporting that Weber was released in a gesture of “Islamic mercy” without specifying the crime for which he was imprisoned.

But, according to Austrian media, citing Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg in December of last year, Weber was "abducted and detained" on August 25, 2022, shortly after crossing into Iran, and taken to a state police prison in Urumia in northern Iran.

Initial allegations of espionage, reportedly based on information from the Somali secret service, were later proven false.

Despite the dropped charges, Weber remained in custody for nearly one and a half years, including time at Maku prison in northern Iran. Reports indicated he was subsequently charged with carrying dangerous weapons.

The conditions of Weber’s detention had drawn international criticism against Iran which continues its policy of diplomatic hostage taking. A petition signed by over 700 individuals in Austria advocating for his release detailed the harsh circumstances Weber endured including being confined in a room with 48 other prisoners, without a mattress for the first six months, and suffering from persistent back pain.

It is unknown how many foreign citizens or dual-nationals are imprisoned in Iran. Last year, five US citizens were released in return for the release of $6 billion in Iranian frozen funds, leading to major criticism of the Biden administration for emboldening the Islamic Republic.

Weber's release comes on the heels of the anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death on September 16.

Nationwide protests erupted following the death of the 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman, who died in custody after allegedly violating Iran's Islamic dress code.

Months of protests followed, marking one of the most significant challenges to the Islamic Republic's clerical leadership in decades.