Privilege for VP's son reignites 'good genes' controversy in Iran

The annual draw is being held for a total of 120,000 vehicles of different types but making a deposit was required for 36,000 of them.

Many Iranians buy cars as investments like gold, real estate, stocks, and foreign currency to maintain the value of their savings. Prices, even for used cars, can increase in tandem with high inflation and a falling currency.

In the past few years, Iran's automakers have not been able to meet their production targets because of US sanctions imposed in 2018 and foreign currency shortages that hugely affected the procurement of parts. In the same year, imports were also banned. This has led to an imbalance in supply and demand. Iran was the 19th car producer in the world in 2021.

Out of the over 2.2 million people who signed up for the draw, only 1.2 million were required to make the deposit. As a result, their chances of winning in the deposit-required category are extremely low.

The draw has locked the total of around $4.5 billion in Iranian banks, equivalent to the total stock market value of the country’s top three automakers, Iran Khodro, Saipa, and Pars Khodro.

Iran Khodro and Saipa account for over 90 percent of all car production in the country. The government owns 40 percent of the shares in both companies "privatized" a few years ago and has maintained control over them. In fact, most of the other shares are also owned by government-affiliated banks and companies.

Some banks have offered applicants interest-free, no-fee loans of one billion rials ($1,600) without requiring guarantees, enabling them to cover part of the 2.3 billion rials ($3,800) deposit needed to participate in the draw. Notably, banks such as Sarmayeh and Iran Zamin, which have offered these loans, are among those that have faced significant capital losses in recent years.

The deposited sum covers half the final cost of the cars, and the outstanding amount should be paid at delivery time. Those who do not win in the draw have been promised to get back their deposits after the draw.

The vehicles sold to the fortunate "winners" are expected to be significantly more valuable on the open market when delivered over the next seven months—assuming the automaker adheres to its schedule without any delays.

Only a fraction of the 1.2 million applicants who made the deposit actually need the vehicles for personal use. The prospect of profiting from reselling the cars at higher prices on the open market has motivated many to sign up for multiple vehicles under the names of eligible family members. This strategy is driven by the expectation of a substantial profit once the vehicles are delivered.

“Probably over 90 percent of those who signed up are people who have money that they cannot use in business,” Babak Sadraei, an automotive industry expert, told Entekhab news website, adding that the automaker and the banking system are “the real winners” in the process.

Sadraei also cautioned about the potential economic impact of releasing a large amount of liquidity into the market when the locked deposits are freed. He warned that this influx of cash could flow into other sectors, such as the foreign currency market, driving up prices and further destabilizing the economy.

The online registration for the draw ended last month. Iran Khodro's latest statement said the draw was scheduled for late August but the results will be announced early September. The automaker has yet to announce a timetable for the gradual delivery of the vehicles.

Of the remaining 84,000 vehicles in the draw for grabbing, 60,000 are allocated to mothers with two children one of whom was born in the past two years. This is part of a government initiative to encourage population growth while 24,000 are the share of those whose cars are now too old and need to be scrapped.

Applicants in these two groups were not required to deposit money for the banks.

The Supreme Council of Economic Coordination announced on September 1 that the NDF's share from oil and gas revenues, initially set at 40% of oil income, will be slashed to 20% this year (ending in March). The decision, proposed by President Masoud Pezeshkian and greenlit by Khamenei, redirects the equivalent of $5.8 billion to pay off overdue debts to struggling farmers and drivers—debts that the government has repeatedly failed to manage.

This move, framed as a "loan" from the NDF to the government's budget, is a reminder of Iran's ongoing financial crises. The NDF, established with the lofty goal of converting Iran's oil and gas revenue into long-term economic assets for future generations, has been steadily depleted since international reactions began against Iran's nuclear program and economic sanctions intensified around 2009.

Despite the NDF's intended purpose, the government has treated it as a piggy bank. Earlier this year, Mehdi Ghazanfari, the head of the NDF, revealed that of the $36.5 billion allocated from the Fund, a staggering $17.76 billion has never been repaid. With the government showing no intention of returning the borrowed money, the Fund's original purpose has been all but abandoned.

The National Development Fund (NDF), established to save up to 30 percent of oil revenues initially for future generations, experienced withdrawals amounting to $13.6 billion from 2010 to 2013, a period when global oil prices remained above $100 per barrel. Despite this, more funds were retained in the NDF than withdrawn during Ahmadinejad's administration.

International sanctions imposed by the UN, along with most US and EU economic sanctions, were lifted in mid-2015 following the conclusion of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement, which limited Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for the removal of most sanctions.

However, withdrawals from the NDF continued during President Hassan Rouhani's two terms (2013-2021). In his first term, $30 billion was withdrawn. After former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear accord and reimposed severe sanctions, Iran increasingly depended on its reserves, leading to a negative cash flow in the NDF. During Rouhani’s second term (2017-2021), the government withdrew another $37 billion to maintain fiscal stability, despite the NDF's charter prohibiting its use for routine government operations.

The systematic depletion of the NDF is further compounded by the government's continued refusal to honor its obligations. Nasser Mousavi Largani, a parliament member and observer of the Fund's board, admitted last year that the government owes nearly $100 billion to the Fund—an amount that continues to grow as the government fails to increase the NDF’s share from oil revenues as mandated.

100%

The latest raid on the Fund comes at a time of unrest among Iran's workforce. Small truck operators across the country, already suffering from reduced income and fuel quotas, have repeatedly gone on strike in protest. Just this past May, drivers in cities including Tehran and Sistan and Baluchestan halted work, citing the government's failure to allocate subsidized diesel fuel and enforce fair wages.

Similarly, wheat farmers, who are now the supposed beneficiaries of this latest financial maneuver, have been protesting the government's inability to pay for the harvest, collected and processed by the state. With only partial payments made and many farmers left waiting, their trust in the regime has been further eroded.

Pezeshkian, who proposed the Fund diversion, openly acknowledged the dire state of the government’s finances in a recent interview, lamenting the empty treasury and the inherited mess left behind by previous administrations. Yet, instead of addressing the root causes of the country's economic woes, the government has once again chosen to rob future generations to pay for its current failures.

A post on the Australian embassy's Instagram page shows Ambassador Ian McConville and his colleagues celebrating the “Wear it Purple Day with a splash of purple in every corner, and some delicious cupcakes made with love."

"Today, and every day, we’re dedicated to creating a supportive environment, where everyone, especially LGBTQIA+ youth, can feel proud to be themselves. Let’s keep championing diversity and inclusion for a brighter, more inclusive future 🤝🏳️‍🌈," the Instagram post added.

100%

The German embassy in Tehran has also joined the Australian embassy's celebration by posting purple hearts in reply to its Instagram post.

In Iran, homosexuality is punishable by death for men and by 100 lashes for women. On repeated offenses, women can be also executed under the laws of the Islamic Republic which are based on a hardline interpretation of Shia Islam.

In its latest annual report on Iran's human rights practices, the US State Department expressed concern about reports that Iran's "security forces harassed, arrested, and detained individuals they suspected or perceived as being LGBTQI+."

"In some cases, security forces raided houses and monitored internet sites for information on LGBTQI+ persons," the report said.

In 2022, the Islamic Republic sentenced LGBTQ activists Zahra Sedighi-Hamedani (31) and Elham Choubdar (24) to death on charges of "corruption on earth through the promotion of homosexuality." However, the Supreme Court overturned the sentence, and the activists were temporarily released on bail. In December 2023, it was reported that Sedighi-Hamadani had safely fled Iran for another undisclosed country. However, Choubdar was arrested in February 2024 to serve her three-year jail term.

Iran's laws allow individuals to change their gender identify markers on government-issued identification cards after gender-affirming surgery and by court permission. Many Islamic Republic apologists portray the country's "tolerance" of transgenders as an expression of liberalism.

However, the Islamic Republic seems to be exploiting the sex-reassignment surgery (SRS) as a means of purging gays and lesbians from public life, as evidenced in a 2019 article by Economist.

The Islamic Republic has allegedly executed "between 4,000 and 6,000 gay men and lesbians... for crimes related to their sexual preference since 1979," a 2008 WikiLeaks cable said citing reports by human rights activists.

In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, Trump warned that if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, "Israel is gone. It will be gone."

Trump and other Republicans have criticized the Biden administration for being too lenient on Iran, allowing it to circumvent US economic sanctions. They argue that this leniency enabled Tehran to arm Hamas, facilitating the October 7 attack on Israel.

Trump withdrew from the 2015 JCPOA nuclear accord, which restricted Iran’s nuclear program, calling it a "bad deal" that failed to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and malign activities in the Middle East. When he signed the withdrawal order in May 2018, Trump reimposed sanctions on oil exports and international banking.

On Sunday, Trump reiterated his criticism, claiming that four years ago, Iran was financially constrained and lacked the funds to support terrorist organizations or attack Israel. He alleged that Iran now has $300 billion, a figure far beyond what is plausible based on available data, although Tehran has indeed increased its oil sales over the past three years.

During Trump’s presidency, Iran was selling as little as 300,000 barrels of oil per day, generating far less income than needed to import essential goods. Since Joe Biden took office, Iran’s oil exports have steadily increased, reaching around 1.5 million barrels per day, generating roughly $30 billion annually—far from the $300 billion Trump claimed.

Nevertheless, Trump asserted, "People could not buy oil from them. They weren’t allowed by me." While China remains Iran’s main oil customer, the Biden administration has struggled to prevent Beijing from violating sanctions. The revenue from these oil sales has not made Iran wealthy but has provided the Islamic government with more financial flexibility. Additionally, the Biden administration allowed $16 billion of Iran’s frozen funds in South Korea and Iraq to be unblocked last year.

Trump also extended an olive branch to Iran, stating, "I am not looking to be enemies with Iran. I would love to get along with them, but they cannot have a nuclear weapon. You just cannot let them have a nuclear weapon. But I will say this: If they do have a nuclear weapon, Israel is gone. It will be gone." He had also said in June that he was not seeking enmity with Iran.

The Iranian government is reportedly watching the US presidential election with concern, particularly about a possible Trump victory. Iranian observers generally believe that a Harris administration would be more advantageous for Tehran, as it might not rigorously enforce sanctions.

Meanwhile, Iran has accelerated its nuclear program over the past three years, enriching a significant amount of uranium. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, have warned that Tehran could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb in a matter of weeks.

The helicopter crash on May 19 resulted in the deaths of Raisi and seven others including Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. Over the past three months, the true cause of the incident has remained shrouded in secrecy for the Iranian public, with conflicting reports continuing to emerge.

Now the Supreme Board of the General Staff of Iran's Armed Forces says in its final report that "complex climatic conditions of the region in spring" was the primary cause of the crash.

The report says the helicopter collided with the mountain after a sudden mass of dense fog rapidly rose upwards.

The investigation found no evidence of sabotage in the helicopter's parts or systems, the Board said, dismissing speculations about possible foul play.

Last month, the IRGC-affiliated Fars News reported that the crash was due to adverse weather conditions and the helicopter being overloaded. Citing an unnamed security source, the report claimed, "The investigation into Raisi's helicopter crash has been completed... there is complete certainty that what happened was an accident." The source identified unsuitable weather and excess weight as the causes, with the helicopter allegedly carrying two more people than allowed under security protocols.

However, the Armed Forces General Staff's communications center, which oversees crash investigations, categorically denied the report by Fars, labeling it "completely false." The center urged media outlets to coordinate with them on defense and security reports to avoid "creating opportunities for enemies to exploit."

Back in May, a preliminary military report stated that no evidence of foul play or an attack was found. But it also noted that only 69 seconds elapsed between the last contact with the helicopter pilots and the crash, with no emergency status declared—a fact that raises more questions than it answers.

However, what makes the incident suspicious is a second report from the Supreme Board investigating the crash that said weather conditions on May 19 were reported as favorable for the flight.

In a nation already rife with internal tensions, the ambiguity surrounding Raisi's death—especially given his status as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—has fueled widespread speculations. Among Iranians, both at home and abroad, conspiracy theories have proliferated, ranging from sabotage by a foreign entity to an inside job possibly orchestrated by Khamenei's son, Mojtaba.

The Islamic Republic's failure to provide a clear and transparent explanation for the crash and its contradictory statements have allowed conspiracy theories to gain traction, as Iranians search for answers in the absence of credible information from their government.