Does Larijani’s Presidential Candidacy Signal a Shift in Iran?

Discussions about the Supreme Leader’s looming succession issue, primarily driven by speculation, have been sidelined for now as new issues come to the forefront – with three key trends emerging.

Sanctification 

The Iranian state propaganda machine consistently pushes narratives that are 180 degrees opposite of what many Iranians say in public and how they act. For example, as many increasingly distance themselves from religious sanctity in public life, the government places even greater emphasis on it. Following Raisi’s death, videos were circulated of people kissing his coffin, and high-ranking clerics sharing stories about the first Shia imam “speaking” to him.

In another sanctification of Raisi, the governor of Neyshabur shared a “vision” reported by someone at the funeral – and allegedly connected to the Hidden Imam, the 12th Imam in Shia Islam, believed to be alive but hidden and expected to reappear at the end of times. This supposed vision, seen on the night of the helicopter crash, depicted the Hidden Imam at the crash site. He was said to be anxiously moving near the crash site but ultimately decided not to perform a miracle.

The frequent presence of clerics in Shia mausoleums and cemeteries has revived old beliefs about their connection to Shia saints. The Islamic Republic’s propaganda apparatus promotes these superstitions, presenting them to the relatives of the deceased as if they were true.

Routinization 

Ali Khamenei has demonstrated that he does not want any change in the ruling class. The vote of about two-thirds of the parliament members for Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as speaker reflects the Leader's desire for continuity and stability. Despite the faction currently controlling both the parliament and the executive branch not presenting any plan to address the country's problems, it will remain in power. Khamenei is disregarding the many corruption allegations against Ghalibaf.

Following Khamenei’s advice, the government is attempting to portray a sense of normalcy. To this end, they have invited Mohammad Bin Salman to visit Iran. It is interesting that the Islamic Republic is using the invitation to bolster claims of normalcy while they have routinely called Saudi Arabia the “worst state in the world”.

Domestically, they are creating an illusion of participation and competition by including figures like former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, potentially Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and dozens of others in the presidential elections, despite these individuals having been previously purged from the political scene. This move is presented as if it can revitalize the political landscape.

A new wave of arrests and intimidation 

Due to widespread public opposition to the government, arrests of dissidents have been ongoing. However, the specific targets and directions of these arrests shift according to circumstances and events.

In the post-Raisi era, the widespread arrests and clampdown have focused on individuals celebrating, mocking, or ridiculing the regime in connection with the helicopter crash.

Before the arrests began, the country's Attorney General warned and threatened the public. "It is necessary to take necessary measures against those who misuse cyberspace about this incident to disturb the mental security of the society and disturb the public mind by publishing false content, lies, and insults; according to the regulations, a quick, effective, and deterrent action will be taken, and the result will be announced to this prosecutor's office,” he said.

In its announcement regarding the unexpected incident involving the president and the accompanying delegation, the Cyber Police stated that, in fulfilling its inherent duties and assigned missions, it carefully monitors cyberspace. Users are advised not to pay attention to rumors and false news.

The semi-official news agency ISNA, quoting Kerman province’s public prosecutor, reported that 288 social network users were identified as "virtual activists and leaders." In addition to "phone warning and guidance" to 254 people, "eight were summoned" to the judicial authorities.

“Today’s action reinforces our commitment to disrupt Iran’s production and proliferation of deadly UAVs that continue to be used by Russia against Ukraine and by regional terrorist proxies against our troops,” US Treasury Department Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian Nelson, said in a statement.

“Treasury will continue to impose costs on those who seek to procure the components Iran needs for its UAV programs and enable the shipment of these weapons to destabilizing actors around the world.”

Iran has supplied thousands of Shahed kamikaze drones to Russia throughout its invasion of Ukraine launched in February 2022. They have been used to exhaust Ukrainian air defences and hit infrastructure far from the front lines.

The Treasury said it imposed sanctions on four entities that have procured critical parts for Iran's drone program as well as an executive of Iran Aviation Industries Organization (IAIO), a subsidiary of Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL).

The Treasury said Afshin Khajeh Fard, the chief of IAIO, oversees its efforts to produce drones and missiles.

Friday's action freezes any of their US assets and generally bars Americans from dealing with them. Those that engage in certain transactions with them also risk being hit with sanctions.

Sanctioned individuals include Iran’s Defense Minister Mohammad-Reza Gharaei Ashtiani; Commander of Revolutionary Guards' extraterritorial Qods Force Esmail Qaani; Afshin Khaji Fard, who heads the Iranian Aviation Industries Organization (IAIO); Kavan Electronics Behrad LLC CEO Mehdi Dehghani Mohammadabadi;its board chair Hossein Hatefi Ardakani; and Gholam Ali Rashid, the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.

The entities listed in the new measure are the IRGC Navy, IRGC’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, and Kavan Electronics Behrad LLC, which procures and sells components for manufacturing UAVs.

The European Council also strongly and unequivocally condemned the Iranian attack on Israel and affirmed its full solidarity with the people of Israel and commitment to Israel's security and to regional stability.

The Council also called on Iran and its proxies to cease all attacks that have escalated following Hamas October 7 attack on Israel that sparked the current Middle East conflict.

“The European Council stated that Russia’s access to sensitive items and technologies with battlefield relevance must be restricted to the maximum extent possible, including by targeting entities in third countries enabling the circumvention of sanctions.”

The European Council also called on the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and on the Commission “to prepare further sanctions, notably on Iran.”

After registration at the Iranian Interior Ministry headquarters in Tehran on Friday, he told reporters that despite the challenges Iran faces, “I remain optimistic about the future.” "My hope is reinforced every day when I witness the passion of our educated youth and the aspirations of Iranian women and men for a brighter future for themselves and their children."

In 2021 elections, Hemmati finished third with less than 10 percent of the votes, after late president Ebrahim Raisi and Mohsen Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guards commander who served as Raisi’s vice president for economic affairs.

Hemmati is known for his harsh criticism of the economic policies of the hardliner government of Raisi, blaming his administration for the worsening economic crisis in the country.

In March, he accused the government of creating three-digit inflation of food prices and the impoverishment of tens of millions of people “while Iran has the biggest combined oil and gas reserves in the world.” Hemmati believes that Raisi’s policies led to higher inflation and more corruption, by offering economic privileges to insiders.

Earlier on Friday, former Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani officially registered to run in the snap election. In addition to Larijani, conservative MP Mahmoud Ahmadi-Bighash, former governor of Khorasan Province under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, also registered to run for office.

“So far, 6 people have definitively registered,” said Mohsen Eslami, spokesperson for Iran's Election Headquarters, on Friday, confirming Larijani and Ahmadi-Bighash’s registration.

Eslami emphasized, “Three women applied for registration, but they did not meet the requirements.”

Confirmed known registrants so far also include ‘reformist’ Mostafa Kavakebian and conservative figure Saeed Jalili.

Six US and British strikes have killed 16 people and wounded 41, including civilians, Saree said in a televised statement.

Strikes on the province of Hodeidah targeted the port of Salif, a radio building in Al-Hawk district, Ghalifa camp and two houses, Saree said.

The US and British militaries said they launched strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen on Thursday to deter the militant group from further disrupting shipping in the Red Sea.

The US Central Command said American and British forces had hit 13 targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

The British defense ministry said the joint operation targeted three locations in the Red Sea port city of Hodeidah, which it said housed drones and surface-to-air weapons.

"As ever, the utmost care was taken in planning the strikes to minimize any risk to civilians or non-military infrastructure," the British defense ministry said.

"Conducting the strikes in the hours of darkness should also have mitigated yet further any such risks."

Houthi spokesperson Mohamed Abdelsalam said the strikes were a "brutal aggression" against Yemen as punishment for its support of Gaza.

In Tehran, Houthi-allied Iran condemned the strikes as "violations of Yemen's sovereignty and territorial integrity..., international laws and human rights", Iranian state media reported.

"The aggressor US and British governments are responsible for the consequences of these crimes against the Yemeni people," Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said.

The Houthis, who control Yemen's capital and most populous areas, have attacked international shipping in the Red Sea since November heeding a call by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to blockade Israeli trade, drawing retaliatory US and British strikes since February.