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INSIGHT

Iran’s Snap Election; The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Behrouz Turani
Behrouz Turani

Iran International

May 25, 2024, 11:47 GMT+1Updated: 16:44 GMT+0
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei voting in the March 1, 2024 parliamentary elections.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei voting in the March 1, 2024 parliamentary elections.

The Iranian government is getting prepared for an early presidential election on June 28 following the sudden death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last Sunday.

The Islamic Republic held controversial parliamentary elections in March, which were highly stage-managed by the constitutional Guardian Council, seen as generally taking its cues from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s office. Hundreds of candidates were blocked by the Council, handing victory to hardliners. There was little popular appetite to vote in what appeared to be a certain one-sided election. Consequently, turnout was well below 50% and the lowest in the 45-year history of the Islamic Republic.

In fact, Raisi had also been elected in a similar fashion, with serious rivals having been barred from running in June 2021.

Ebrahim Raisi casting his ballot in June 2021
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Ebrahim Raisi casting his ballot in June 2021

Although it is not clear if the upcoming presidential vote will also be stage-managed to eliminate an array of insiders, there is no indication that the majority of Iranian voters have changed their minds about the futility of casting ballots.

In an astonishing development, even for Iran, a hardline commentator on live state TV called for even stricter control of the elections to ensure that someone exactly like Raisi, who has been the most obedient president to Khamenei so far, is elected.

A similar call was made by the editor of hardline daily Kayhan Hossein Shariatmadari, who is appointed to the post by no one other than Khamenei himself. Shariatmadari said in his own complacent way that "People are looking for someone like Raisi and will not vote for anyone whose ideas are different from the former presidency." Whether this reflects Khamenei’s preference as election campaigning soon begins, is not clear.

Meanwhile, Iranian media quoted Omid Javan, a newspaper born with Iran's reform movement in 1997, as saying that it is still not clear whether this election is going to follow the closed model set in 2021 or it will be similar to 2017 election, which allowed non-hardliners to run.

Members of the Guardian Council deliberating in this undated photo.
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Members of the Guardian Council deliberating in this undated photo.

When Raisi was elected in 2021, everyone, even other conservative candidates knew that he was Khamenei's choice and that he would be named as the winner. All high-profile moderate and reformist candidates were barred from running.

Between 2009 and 2021, the regime allowed minimal reformist presence in the election. In 2017 former president Hassan Rouhani used the wave of support for his predecessor Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, sidelined by Khamenei.

The candidates for the upcoming election have not been announced yet, as they are waiting for the mourning period following Raisi's death to conclude. This period will end on Saturday when Khamenei holds a commemoration ceremony for his obedient servant. During this session, he may provide his first guidelines regarding the election. It would be considered impolite and disrespectful to start campaigning before then.

Registration of candidates will take place between May 30 and June 3. The Guardian Council will do the vetting quickly in a matter of less than two weeks, and then official campaigning will start on June 12 and will continue until one day before the 18 June voting day.

There will probably be several conservative and ultraconservative candidates including former Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and ultraconservative figurehead Saeed Jalili, while Iran's reformists are going to decide on Sunday, whether to have or not have a candidate. In the meantime, reformist leader Mohammad Khatami has said that there is no point for reformists to take part in the election if they do not have a candidate. That Khatami was not invited to the funeral ceremony led by Khamenei, possibly an early indication that Khamenei does not want to see any reformist around.

This is the first time an Iranian presidential election is taking place just months before the US presidential elections. This timing prevents Khamenei from selecting a president or candidate based on their potential interactions with the next US president.

The most likely candidate in the reform front is Majid Ansari, a cleric whose career includes serving as a prison warden. On the moderate-conservative side, former Majles Speaker Ali Larijani may or may not run as some analysts say Khamenei has not forgiven him for forging close ties with former President Hassan Rouhani in what hardliners perceived as a conspiracy to influence the process of Khamenei’s succession.

Interestingly, it will once again be up to Khamenei to decide whether to open up the political landscape after Raisi's death or to continue with the political purging that Raisi epitomized.

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Iranian MP Questions Military Readiness After Helicopter Crash Kills Raisi

May 25, 2024, 11:30 GMT+1

Fada Hossein Maleki, a member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Commission, has voiced concerns over the Iranian military's preparedness following a helicopter crash that killed President Ebrahim Raisi. 

In an interview with Ruydad24, Maleki pointed out the military's failure to equip its forces with modern technology such as night vision drones and questioned the decision to use an outdated helicopter for a mission of such importance.

The crash, which occurred under harsh weather conditions in northwest Iran, also resulted in the deaths of Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and six other individuals. The incident has ignited speculation and suspicion among the Iranian public, with some suggesting that the crash may have been a targeted killing.

Maleki emphasized the urgency of conducting an investigation into the crash, cautioning against premature conclusions while the General Staff of the Armed Forces carries out its inquiry. 

"There are rumors among some people that there was an operation intended to kill President Raisi and his companions. It is crucial that no speculation is made until a report is provided," he stated.

Highlighting further negligence, Maleki added that the lack of essential modern equipment and the use of a helicopter that was decades old are matters currently under review by a designated committee. 

The Sunday incident has not only exposed potential lapses in military protocol but also raised questions about the overall accountability and efficiency of Iran's armed forces. 

Iranian Opposition Demands Action After London Attack on Dissdents

May 25, 2024, 09:20 GMT+1

Exiled Iranian Prince Reza Pahlavi and other leading opposition figures have condemned the assault on dissident protesters by supporters of the Islamic Republic, urging the UK government to take action.

Exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi has called for the immediate arrest and prosecution of the Iranian government supporters following a violent attack on Iranian dissidents in London. "It is time to send a message to the Islamic Republic that the intimidation, violence, and threats from its network of radical Islamic centers and affiliates will not be tolerated," stated Pahlavi in response to the incident.

The attack occurred on Friday during a memorial ceremony at the Dewan Al-Kafeel Community Center in Wembley, meant to honor the late Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash. Iranian dissidents who were protesting outside the event were assaulted by regime loyalists, resulting in at least four injuries.

In a further condemnation of the attacks, Masih Alinejad, a leading Iranian political activist, highlighted the urgency of the situation on social media platform X: "Today in London, supporters of the Islamic Republic violently attacked opponents, injuring several individuals, including a female protester...Iranians are calling for unity and demanding immediate and decisive action from the British government and police to address this aggression. "

Nazanin Boniadi, a British citizen and human rights advocate, also expressed her horror at the attacks and urged the Metropolitan police to act swiftly. "I am horrified by the recent, brutal attack by Islamic Republic supporters on its opponents in the UK. The Metropolitan police must immediately investigate and bring the perpetrators to justice," Boniadi stated.

Iranian Crackdown on Citizens Commenting on Raisi's Death Escalates

May 25, 2024, 08:50 GMT+1

The Iranian authorities have intensified their crackdown on citizens who have expressed joy over the death of Ebrahim Raisi or shared content not aligning with the state’s rhetoric regarding the incident.

Since the news about a helicopter crash killing late President Ebrahin Raisi and his entourage on May 19 was announced, numerous individuals have been threatened or arrested in various cities across the country, including Tehran, Lahijan, Sabzevar, Gorgan, Kerman, and Tabriz.

Raisi's sudden death has rattled the Islamic ruling elite in Iran in different ways. One consequence is the spread of conspiracy theories among the public that the helicopter crash was not an accident, and some insiders might have eliminated the president.

Arrests and Judiciary action

Arasalan Nik, a civil engineer and resident of Lahijan in Gilan province northwest of the country, was arrested by intelligence agents after expressing skepticism about the circumstances of Raisi’s death on his Instagram page, as reported by human rights group, Hengaw on Friday. Nik was accused of "publishing false information" on social media. Local rights group, Hyrcani Human Rights Media also confirmed details of Nik’s arrest, further adding that there is no information on where the authorities have taken him. 

Agents deleted all of the content from Nik’s Instagram account on Thursday and added two new posts to his account stating that “the page was shut down for publishing criminal content”. Nik's arrest is part of a broader campaign targeting citizens across the country.

In Tabriz, East Azerbaijan province, northwestern Iran, Ali Reyhani Kachvar was detained on Wednesday for his comments on social media about Raisi’s death. Kachvar was transferred to Tabriz Central Prison - notorious for its human rights abuses of political prisoners. 

Northeast of the country, Maryam Dolabadi, a Doctor of Pharmacy residing in Sabzevar, in Razavi Khorasan province, was arrested for publishing content on social media about Raisi’s death. A source close to Dolatabadi’s family told Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) that state security forces apprehended her on Tuesday. Dolatabadi remains in custody without her family being informed of her condition or whereabouts. 

In Qom province, the operator of a restaurant in Kahak city was arrested, and the establishment was closed by authorities for allegedly spreading "offensive content" about Raisi's death. State-affiliated Borna news agency reported that the restaurant operator was arrested for “upsetting” the families of those who died in the helicopter crash.

Earlier this week, former political prisoner, Reza Babrnejad was arrested for criticizing Raisi on Instagram.

On Tuesday, Iranian journalist Manijeh Moazzen wrote on X that a new case has been opened against her due to her coverage of Raisi's death. 

Summons and Threats

In the country’s capital, Tehran, numerous students who expressed joy on social media regarding Raisi’s demise or shared related humor have been summoned to university disciplinary committees. According to reports received by Iran International, some students received text messages alleging violations of university standards.

HRANA reported that on Monday the intelligence ministry summoned former political prisoner, Behrouz Izadi Rad in connection with Raisi’s helicopter crash.

Mohammad Ardeshir Khamooshi, a resident of the city of Bakharz in Khorasan province was summoned by the intelligence ministry agents similarly for his posts on social media regarding Raisi’s death.

Photojournalist and former political prisoner Alieh Motalebzadeh also announced on X that Iran’s Cyber Police in Karaj had called her and summoned her. On Friday, Motalebzadeh further stated on X that despite a request for a legal written notice of the summons, and Wednesday being a holiday, her bank accounts were blocked. 

Family members of slain teen Iranian protestor, Artin Rahmani Piyani were also threatened by the intelligence ministry earlier this week. 

Other individuals working in media in Iran, including economic journalist, Hirsh Saidian, journalist Amirhossein Mosalla, and blogger Mohammad Moini, have reported receiving threatening calls from Iran’s security agents in recent days.

Former political prisoner and blogger, Hossein Shanbezadeh also reported receiving similar calls. 

As security forces intensify their efforts to silence critics, the Iranian government seems determined to stifle any opposition and control the narrative surrounding Raisi's death. This ongoing repression underscores the fraught state of human rights and free expression in Iran.

Islamic Republic's Loyalists Attack Iranian Protesters in London

May 24, 2024, 22:56 GMT+1
•
Negar Mojtahedi

The Islamic Republic's loyalists on Friday violently attacked a group of Iranian dissidents who were celebrating Ebrahim Raisi's death in London, injuring at least four people.

Images of an Iranian woman beaten to the ground by a man seemingly loyal to the Islamic Republic of Iran is going viral on social media, and the alleged incident didn't take place in Iran.

It happened in the Western world: London, UK.

A memorial ceremony to honor late Iranian president Raisi and his entourage who died in a helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border took place at Dewan Al-Kafeel Community Center in Wembley, London, on Friday.

The opponents of Iran's authoritarian government were standing outside to protest when they were attacked by the loyalists. Confrontations ensued and then screams are heard from a woman yelling for 'help' in Persian as several men dressed in black beat up protestors who were waving Iran's pre-Islamic Revolutionary flag, the Lion and the Sun.

The injured woman goes on to yell the name 'Nika Shakarami' referring to the 16-year-old Iranian girl, who according to a BBC World report, was violently sexually assaulted and killed by the Islamic Republic's security forces amid the 2022 uprising sparked by the death of Mahsa Jina Amini.

The Met Police in London responded to Iran International in an email, saying "four people were injured and were treated by paramedics. Their injuries are not believed to be either life threatening or life changing."

The Met police said one person has been arrested but did not identify if he was an Islamic Republic loyalist or not.

"One man was arrested on suspicion of violent disorder. Further enquiries will now follow to establish what further offences took place and to identify those involved."

Their investigation will include “an examination of footage shared on social media," the Met police spokesperson said in the email.

Iran expert: Friday's attack in UK is "a wake-up call" to the West

Gabriel Noronha, who worked on Iran at the US State Department, said the West has a serious problem.

"It's really grotesque, I think, and it's a wake-up call for those governments that they need to be more serious about eroding freedoms in their own country and the unchecked power of governments like those around you," said Noronha to Iran International.

Noronha said the infiltration of those loyal to the authoritarian government in Iran is a real threat to the West.

"If you don't push back on foreign repression activities, they're only going to get more emboldened and more violent here on our soil," he added.

The violence that played out in the streets of London Friday represents a much wider issue of Iran building networks of influence in the Western world according to Noronha.

"Islamic Republic has spent an inordinate amount of financial resources, and pressure and planning to build networks in foreign countries, to advance its interests. The things we are seeing are just the public facing ones. Underneath them are networks of proliferation for the regime's ballistic missile, drone and nuclear programs. It's money laundering, for the regime's terrorism. And ultimately, at the worst, it's, actual assassin operatives who are there to be able to kill the regime's critics, or at least bully, intimidate them, to be able to get their critics silenced, both literally and figuratively," he said.

Counter terrorism police in the UK revealed in Feb. 2023 that they foiled 15 plots by Iran to either kidnap or kill British or UK-based individuals it considers "enemies of the regime."

2023 Sydney Peace Prize laureate, human rights advocate and actress Nazanin Boniadi told Iran International, "I am horrified by the recent, brutal attack by Islamic Republic supporters on its opponents in the UK. The Metropolitan police must immediately investigate and bring the perpetrators to justice."

Boniadi who is a British citizen said she and her parents faced a hostile environment outside the Iranian embassy in London in the 1980s when she would attend protests against the regime outside the compound.

"These often included verbal insults and threats such as 'you’ll pay for betraying the Islamic Revolution' and 'we know where you live' — implying that the regime will find and harm its opponents," said Boniadi.

She said there is a "four-decade history of transnational repression by the Islamic Republic in the UK."

Boniadi described a deadly incident involving her family friend decades ago where she had felt the long reach of the Iranian regime in her new home, the UK.

"I was seven when a video shop we frequented in Kensington — owned by a prominent dissident and friend of my parents, Reza Fazeli — was bombed. His 22-year-old son Bijan, who worked at the shop, was killed in the blast. It was the first time I truly felt the regime’s long arm of repression. Less than a year later, dissident Mohammad Ali Tavakoli and his son were shot to death in their home in Wembley," said Boniadi who also brought up the example of the stabbing of Iran International journalist Pouria Zeraati.

The Washington-based NGO, Freedom House, urged British authorities to investigate Zeraati's attack as a possible act of transnational repression.

In 2023, UK's ITV revealed that the IRGC was plotting to assassinate two Iran International television anchors in London in 2022. The targets were former anchor Sima Sabet and host Fardad Farahzad.

In January, the US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and the United Kingdom took joint action against a network of individuals that targeted Iranian dissidents for assassination, they said, at the direction of the Iranian regime. The statement said the network is led by Iranian narcotics trafficker Naji Ebrahim Sharifi-Zindshti, operating at the behest of Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS).

Boniadi said "45 years of providing a haven for the regime in the UK has increased the risk to its freedom-seeking opponents — often also British citizens. Instead, it is in the UK’s national and foreign policy interests to stand unequivocally on the side of pro-democracy Iranians who are risking everything for freedom, provide them with a safe haven and empower Iranian civil society towards self-determination, while disempowering a regime that is the number-one global sponsor of terrorism."

She said to achieve that goal, the UK needs to adopt the Universal Jurisdiction (Extension) Bill and enlist the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist entity.

UK-born Jonathan Harounoff, an Israel and Iran journalist and analyst said seeing images of Friday's attack on anti-regime protestors on British soil is disturbing.

"Footage of brave Iranian women inside Iran being harassed, beaten, arrested by regime forces often elicits strong condemnations from Western observers. Seeing instances of the same thing happening in London is deeply concerning," Harounoff told Iran International.

Harounoff said those protestors left Iran to escape the regime, and yet those loyal to the very system activists left behind, have found their way, destroying any kind of safety they once felt.

"Safety, freedom of assembly and speech are among the reasons why some Iranians in the diaspora settled in London. British police authorities must ensure these attacks don’t happen — it cannot become a regular occurrence," he said.

Iran's long reach goes beyond its borders

It's not just a problem in the UK, it applies to the rest of Europe, Canada and the United States, said Gabriel Noronha.

A recent Global news investigation found that upwards of 700 Iran regime-linked affiliates are operating on Canadian soil and threatening the lives of Iranian-Canadians.

As fireworks were set off in Iran by those happy to see their president's demise, in the US, a ceremony to honor the late President, known as the 'Butcher of Tehran' for his alleged role in the 1988 massacre, was held in Dearborn, Michigan.

Iranian-American activist Emily Sharif said she was disgusted to see the event on US soil.

"When I saw that US citizens were mourning the death of Ebrahim Raisi, I was not only disappointed, but also appalled. You would think that people who left Iran to seek a better life in the United States would not bring the radical ideology of the Islamic Republic in Iran with them," said Sharif.

She tweeted out a photo of the ceremony poster to X, telling Iran International that "those who attended the ceremonies in the US to “honor” and mourn Ebrahim Raisi, are the same individuals who remained silent or even celebrated the death of innocent Iranians killed by the regime in Iran. It’s disgusting and shameful."

Analyst and journalist Jonathan Harounoff said he's not surprised to see this event in Dearborn.

"Perhaps it’s not surprising after all that Dearborn, where chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” are heard regularly, is also where inhabitants mourn over Raisi’s death. I don’t recall seeing mass protests held in Dearborn in support of the ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’ protesters."

Gabriel Noronha: The West treats Iran differently than Russia and China

Iran expert and Iran International contributor Gabriel Noronha believes Islamic Republic loyalists feel emboldened in the West, and part of the problem he said, is the West treats Iran with a different standard than Russia and China.

"When the Russian government tried to assassinate Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, England, several years ago, the United States evicted 60 Russian diplomats and European and British countries evicted another 60 to 90 diplomats here [the US], where you've had Iranian assassin operatives multiple times try to kill British and other citizens, you've seen zero, diplomats expelled. You've seen zero embassies closed, you've seen zero sanctions implemented. And so there's a complete double standard when it comes to assassination intimidation efforts from the Iranians and from the Russians or Chinese," said Noronha.

He said while the issue of Iranian regime infiltration is impacting all Western countries, he believes it's an even bigger problem in Europe due to "fewer visa restrictions."

"There's a greater sense of entitlement and, freedom for these people to go in and conduct their agenda, unchecked, to the point that they feel entitled to go in and beat up protesters in UK soil," Noronha added.

In a statement to Iran International, Met police in the UK said they are encouraging anyone with footage that may aid in their investigation to come forward.

Famed Iranian Director and Actress Debut Cannes Film Post-Iran Escape

May 24, 2024, 21:12 GMT+1

After fleeing their native country, prominent Iranian filmmaker Mohammad Rasoulof and dissident actress Setareh Maleki attended the Cannes Film Festival for the premiere of their movie.

Rasoulof was greeted with a long-standing ovation on Friday as he displayed photos of the cast at the premiere of his latest film, "The Seed of the Sacred Fig," which is competing for the prestigious Palme d'Or award at the festival.

The dissident filmmaker fled Iran by foot through rugged mountainous terrain after receiving an eight-year prison sentence, a flogging, a fine, and property confiscation for “the signing of statements and the making of films and documentaries,” which the regime claimed are “collusion to commit a crime against the country's security.”

On the red carpet, Rasulof and actress Golshifteh Farahani showcased images of the film's actresses, Soheila Golestani and Misagh Zareh, who could not attend the event.

Maleki was forced to flee Iran following her appearance without the mandated hijab in an underground film, examining Iran's nationwide protest movement in 2022 following the death of Mahsa Jina Amini.

According to the UN, the Iranian regime is responsible for the violence that led to Amini's death - after she was reportedly detained and beaten by "morality police" for wearing her hijab improperly. The months-long protests, often dubbed the “Women Life Freedom” protests, saw security forces kill at least 550 and detain tens of thousands.

Iran's Culture Minister Mohammad Mehdi Esmaeili condemned the production and distribution of his film, calling it "illegal."

Maleki gained prominence before appearing in Rasoulof's film when she posted a video on Instagram in which she visited the grave of her father, who died of COVID-19, and vehemently criticized Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for leading the "biggest dictatorship in history" as a "ruthless murderer."

A team of medical experts revealed in a report last year that over 75,000 Covid deaths could have been prevented in Iran if the Supreme Leader had not banned vaccines produced by American and British companies.