Debate Continues In Tehran About How To Respond To Israel

“The 140% increase in the migration of young professionals in the past year … can be seen as an exit strategy resulting from loss of hope in [voluntary] change and reform in the government,” Fatemeh Mousavi, sociologist and social researcher, told Khabar Online news website in an interview Tuesday.

It appears that for many Iranians from diverse backgrounds, hope in the prospects of positive change in the country have been lost – especially for the younger generation seeing emigration as the only path toward a more promising life.

A recent telephone poll conducted by US-based Statis Consulting reveals that nearly half of Iranian youth aspire to leave the country, driven by a prevailing sense of pessimism regarding their future in their homeland.

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Saeid Moidfar, chairman of the Iranian Sociological Association, recently warned that Iran is on the brink of a significant wave of emigration. Iranians perceive a bleak future in the country, with worsening economic and social conditions, alongside escalating corruption and crime.

According to Mousavi, Iranians had been anticipating the government to initiate gradual reforms over the past twelve months in response to the protests of 2022-2023.

“It became clear that the government does not intend to reform its authoritarian attitude and has even hastened its enforcement from the beginning of the summer, when the approval of the Hijab and Chastity bill was proposed, until the end of the year when the previous process of extensive purification [of the political structure] and disqualification [of candidates], even for independent persons, continued. We saw the outcome in people's [refusal to] participate in the parliamentary elections,” she said.

Iran’s parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections saw a record low voter turnout this year.

“In the past year, not only women's demands were not met, but the political conflict over the mandatory hijab also increased … The political establishment continues to fine women for not wearing the hijab by confiscating cars and sealing businesses beyond legal premises. This is an exhausting battle that consumes the limited resources of the government in the police force, fuels social dissatisfaction, and has caused even some religious people and those who wear the chador (long black veil) to oppose the mandatory hijab,” Mousavi who says half of young professionals leaving the country are women told Khabar Online.

Experts have long been warning about the dire consequences of the emigration of skilled workforce, like medical professionals, but government officials have historically denied the importance of the matter or ignored the warnings.

Nevertheless, in February authorities said new measures had been taken to prevent the emigration of experts that involved the passport and immigration authority.

In a recent article, EcoIran, an economic news website, highlighted that workforce emigration is no longer limited to physical relocation. The rise of virtual citizenship and remote work, especially during and after the pandemic, has led to a significant increase in digital emigration among Iranians.

This shift, the article said, has led to the “migration of the activities of creative and expert workforce to international businesses”, the article said while warning that the growing desire to emigrate serves as an “alarm bell” that has been ringing for several years, yet remains largely unheeded.

The IMO, a research institute established during then-President Rouhani’s second term, at Sharif University of Technology, tracks data and generates analyses on emigration, with a particular focus on informing policymakers.

In its 2022 report, Iran Migration Observatory (IMO) stated that Iran ranked 17th among countries with the highest number of individuals seeking education abroad and 54th among those with the highest emigration rates.

Aghamiri's statement comes amidst heightened criticism over a government initiative to convert parks into mosque grounds, drawing ire from citizens and sparking a broader debate on the allocation of public funds and urban planning.

Currently, Tehran hosts 2,100 mosques, with the highest concentration located in the southern part of the city, according to Aghamiri. However, he claimed that “while the municipality assists in construction efforts, it does not directly undertake mosque building projects.”

The proposal has garnered public outrage, particularly following the revelation of construction plans in Qeytarieh Park, situated in northern Tehran. Images circulated online depicting the fencing off of park sections and tree removals.

Critics argue that parks serve as crucial gathering spaces for communities and are essential for public recreation, while mosques, once viewed as centers of worship, are increasingly being perceived as instruments of state control and suppression. Reports suggest that during recent protests, mosques have been utilized as staging grounds for security forces, exacerbating concerns over civil liberties and government overreach.

In response to mounting dissent, concerned Iranians have launched an online petition urging intervention from key authorities to halt the mosque construction projects. The petition underscores Tehran's pressing environmental challenges, such as air pollution, and stresses the need for prioritizing green spaces and tree preservation.

The controversy unfolds against a backdrop of declining mosque attendance nationwide, as highlighted by senior clerics and government officials. The closure of thousands of mosques due to dwindling congregations has raised questions about the efficacy of expanding mosque infrastructure in the face of shifting societal dynamics.

In response to inquiries from Iran International, the ministry said consular efforts to assess their conditions remain ongoing, with intensified scrutiny.

Swedish citizens have been advised to exercise caution and refrain from traveling to Iran given the risk of arbitrary detention.

Additionally, the ministry announced that temporary caretakers are overseeing the responsibilities of the charge d'affaires at both the Swedish Embassy in Tehran and the Iranian Embassy in Stockholm.

Relations between Iran and Sweden have become increasingly strained in recent years, particularly following the detention, trial, and conviction of Hamid Nouri, a former judicial official of the Islamic Republic, on charges related to the 1988 massacre of political prisoners in Iran.

Since legal proceedings began against Nouri in Sweden, Tehran has retaliated against Stockholm, leading to the detention of several Swedish nationals in Iran.

Johan Floderus, a Swedish citizen and European Union diplomat, has been held since April 2022 on allegations of "gathering information for Israel under covert projects." His detention is viewed by political and human rights activists as an attempt to pressure the Swedish government regarding Nouri's release.

Ahmadreza Jalali, an Iranian-Swedish physician and researcher, was arrested in 2016 on charges of "espionage." Despite denying the accusations, he was sentenced to death by Abolghassem Salavati, a judge of the Revolutionary Court, with the sentence upheld by the Supreme Court.

Recent reports indicate that two additional Swedish nationals have been detained by Iranian security authorities in recent months.

The Islamic Republic's practice of arbitrarily detaining foreign nationals or dual citizens underscores its pressure tactics on Western countries to meet its demands.

“This threat is about opening a broad front against the Zionist regime, which is probably the most dangerous of all fronts because it could geographically threaten all the cities of the occupied territories and could facilitate attacks against many of the most sensitive targets, including Tel Aviv and [Israel’s] nuclear facilities,” Iran's semi-official ISNA wrote.

According to the agency, following Israel’s attacks against Iran's consulate building in Damascus, Iraq’s Hezbollah voiced its readiness to provide "Jordanian resistance forces” with light and medium weapons, anti-armor weapons, advanced missiles, and millions of tons of explosives and ammunitions.

“Axis of resistance” or “resistance forces” are terms coined by the Iranian authorities to refer to Tehran’s proxies in the region, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq and Yemeni Houthis.

“The resistance is ready to take the necessary measures. The mere order of Hamas and Islamic Jihad is enough to block the land route to the occupied territories,” ISNA quoted Abu Ali al-Askari, head of security for Iraqi Hezbollah, as saying.

Though Tehran has avoided any direct military involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict, it has used its proxy groups such as Houthis and Hezbollah to attack Israeli and American targets in the region. However, there are concerns that the recent deadly Israeli air strike in Damascus and Iran’s possible response might lead to serious escalation in the Middle East.

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On Monday, a precision Israel strike killed seven IRGC officers in Damascus, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the highest-ranking commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force (IRGC-QF) in Lebanon and Syria, and his deputy, Mohammadhadi Haji Rahimi.

Since then, Tehran’s officials have vowed revenge against Israel. In a message released Tuesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said, “The nefarious regime [of Israel] will be punished by our brave men. We will make them regret this crime and other ones like it, by God's will.”

In a statement issued on Saturday, the IRGC thanked the supporters of the government who participated in the funeral and burial ceremonies of those killed in the Israeli strike. “To the heroic and revolutionary nation of Iran, we assure you that your zealous children in the IRGC will, by the grace of God, fulfill the national demand in inflicting a regrettable punishment on the Zionist enemy and its supporters,” the statement read.

Meanwhile, Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran's Armed Forces, threatened the harshest possible response to Israel. However, he emphasized the Islamic Republic’s strategic approach towards recent developments, further adding that Tehran will determine the time and type of the retaliatory operation itself.

Considering such statements from Bagheri and some other Iranian officials, analysts contend that the regime's longstanding strategy of refraining from direct engagement with Israel will persist.

Earlier in the day, ultra-conservative lawmaker Hossein Jalali remarked that Iranian officials do not consider it expedient to implicate the country in an open war with Israel. “We will respond to Israel on a proxy basis through our groups,” he maintained.

According to the lawmaker, the headquarters of the resistance front is in Iran but its armies are in different countries.

Jalali’s remarks are a rare acknowledgement of direct ties between the Iranian regime and militant groups in the region. Tehran has always claimed these groups make their own decisions and act independently. In an interview with CNN on October 31, 2023, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian insisted that no group takes orders from Tehran, and that Iran has no proxies in the region.

Nonetheless, some observers believe that the positions expressed by Iranian officials in recent days suggest that Tehran may be looking to open new fronts in the region via its proxies in an attempt to counter Israel. This is where serious threats would put Jordan's stability in question.

In a report released on Wednesday, Ayelet Savyon, director of Iran Media Studies project at Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), warned that Tehran has a “great plan” which intends to “bring down the Jordanian regime, attack Israel from the East, and thwart the Western-Sunni normalization project.”

Savyon added that in the past days, pro-Palestinian demonstrations have ramped up in Jordan, with many protesters urging Jihad against Israel, the expulsion of the US ambassador in Amman, and even toppling the Jordanian government. According to the analyst, “Jordanian sources reported on recent Iraqi-Iranian efforts to infiltrate Jordan via the Iraqi convoys delivering aid to the Palestinians.”

The attack resulted in the complete destruction of the consulate building and casualties among its occupants, including General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a high-ranking member of Iran's Quds Force in charge of Iran's operations with Hezbollah and other militants in Syria and Lebanon.

"We assure you" that the Israeli Defense Forces and their supporters will be "punished remorsefully," reads the statement.

Earlier, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said that Iran, while reserving its rights to take countermeasures, would decide on the type and timing of its response.

Despite the Israeli attack, analysts suggest that Iran's longstanding strategy of indirect confrontation with Israel is likely to persist. Instead of direct conflict, Iran is anticipated to continue supporting its proxy groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and militias in Iraq and Yemen. These proxies serve as instruments for Iran to exert influence and pressure on regional rivals, including Israel and the United States.

Iran's support for such groups, encompassing financial, military, and ideological backing, underscores its broader objectives of extending influence, countering adversaries, and promoting its revolutionary ideology across the Middle East.