Iran Faces Serious Challenges To Become An LNG Exporter

Just hours after flying in from Austria in February, Magomed-Husejn Dovtaev is said to have tried to record the security arrangements of the Persian-language Iran International channel's headquarters in west London, the court heard.

Dovtaev, 31, is charged with a single count of attempting to collect information likely to be useful to a person committing or preparing an act of terrorism. He has pleaded not guilty.

Prosecutor Nicholas de la Poer told London's Old Bailey on Monday that Iran International became a target for reprisals following its reporting on the death in custody of Mahsa Amini in Iran last year and subsequent protests in the country.

Iran's minister of intelligence later declared Iran International a terrorist organization, de la Poer said, which meant its employees "became targets for violent reprisals".

"The prosecution does not suggest that (Dovtaev's) purpose on Feb. 11 was to carry out such an attack or that it was intended that he would participate in an attack on a further date," de la Poer said.

But, de la Poer added, Dovtaev went to Iran International's headquarters, "no doubt acting on the instructions of others", in order to gather information about its security arrangements.

He told the jury this information would be useful to anyone planning a terrorist attack against Iran International.

Dovtaev's visit "demonstrates that planning by others was already under way", de la Poer said, saying that videos pre-dating Feb. 11 of Iran International's headquarters and security protection had been saved to his phone.

The trial, which is expected to conclude next week, continues.

The Central Bank of Iran issued a statement Monday rejecting reports that the bank bought foreign currency at a higher rate and sold it to a cabal of insider businesspeople. The government’s foreign currency policy has been one of the chronic problems in Iran’s economy. The central bank allocates discounted foreign currencies supposedly for essential goods, but they end up at the hands of regime insiders who mainly sell them in the black market for profit.

The parliament's research center released an analytical report on the recently submitted budget bill of President Ebrahim Raisi’s administration, inadvertently revealing that in the first seven months of the Iranian year (started March 21), the government has spent $4.5 billion more than the foreign currencies obtained from oil revenues, but giving out cheap dollars for the import of five essential goods.

The current exchange rate for the US dollar against Iran’s national currency rial is about 500,000 rials. According to the report, the government has taken $4.5 billion with the rate of Iran’s National Currency and Gold Exchange Center – at about 400,000 rials per dollar -- and given to its cherrypicked businessmen at the rate of 285,000 rials per dollar.

According to calculations by Iran’s leading economic daily Donya-e Eqtesad, the difference between these two rates amounts to about 600 trillion rials (about $1.2 billion at current rate at free market) that has been added to the country’s monetary base, further feeding soaring inflation. Essentially the government printed money to buy the dollars at a higher rate and sell it cheaper to importers. The daily predicted that the current trend will lead to an annual rise of about one quadrillion rials ($2 billion), whose inflation will affect the entire society. 

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“It seems that the insistence of policymakers on promoting welfare policies through currency policies is still in force, with no significant changes in sight. This is happening while currency fluctuations and corruption in the currency allocation process are among the most recognized consequences of welfare-driven currency policies,” Donya-e Eqtesad said. “These policies not only fail to achieve welfare goals but as seen in the tea industry's foreign currency corruption case, they lead to a multitude of damages to society.”

In fact, 'welfare' is just a buzz word, justifying the provision of cheap dollars to people with influence in the political system. Prices for essential goods such as foodstuff continue to rise despite the discounted dollars provided to importers. The justification for cheaper dollars is to keep prices low and prevent higher inflation, but that has not worked as food price inflation stands at around 70 percent.

Iranians are still in shock about recent revelations about a huge corruption case involving nearly $3.5 billion and key Islamic Republic figures. Whenever such cases are revealed, the authorities usually cope out of responsibility by blaming former administrations or officials from the opposing political camp. However, the $3.5 billion embezzlement case of Debsh Tea Company involves officials from both the current and the previous presidential administrations -- including ministers of agriculture, industry as well as the governors of the Central Bank of Iran and the chiefs of Iranian Customs Administration. It has also led to discord between the judiciary and the presidential administration as well as the parliament.

The head of the Organization for Planning and Budget, Davoud Manzour, was speaking as a deepening cost-of-living crisis had left workers hoping for a pay rise of at least 30%.

But Manzour said: “Despite the anticipated rise in salary expenses, actual income fails to materialize, leading to a deepening imbalance in the government's budget.”

Dashing hopes for a giveaway, he warned that dependence on the Central Bank and banks “triggers excessive withdrawals, an expansion of the monetary base, and an exacerbation of inflation”.

In the wake of the economic concerns, with inflation above 46%, Iran's government has put forth a proposal for a pay rise of just 20% for civil servants in the upcoming calendar year.

Iran has been rocked by waves of anti-regime protests and workers' strikes since 2017, fueled by discontent among young people, primarily attributed to the ongoing economic crisis.

Local media reports underscore the severity of the situation, noting that prices for some food items have doubled in 2023 compared to the previous year. Statistical data from the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) reveals alarming increases, with the prices of mutton and beef soaring by 151% and 132%, respectively, in the current year.

The persistently high inflation has taken a severe toll on the poor and the middle class. Their struggle to afford basic necessities, particularly in terms of food and housing, has intensified as salary and wage increases have failed to keep pace with inflation.

Johan Floderus, 33, is being held in Tehran’s Evin prison ahead of a trial on charges of spying for Israel and "corruption on earth," a crime punishable by death.

Speaking on Monday, Swedish Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson said the charges against Floderus are “completely without factual basis”.

He told a press conference in Stockholm: “We demand his immediate release.

We have very intensive work we are showing Iran on this issue. But I will not be going into anything of the contents of that work.”

Floderus was arrested while on holiday in Iran last year. His family insists that the detention lacks justifiable cause or due process.

The situation has sparked concerns among human rights organizations and Western governments, who allege that Iran is leveraging arrests on security charges for political motives. Despite the accusations, Tehran claims that such detentions adhere to its criminal code and are devoid of political motivations.

Diplomatic tensions between Sweden and Iran have risen since 2019, stemming from Sweden's arrest and subsequent life sentence of former Iranian official Hamid Nouri. He was convicted of participating in mass executions and torture of political prisoners in the 1980s. In response, Iran protested by recalling its envoy to Sweden.

In May, Iran carried out the execution of a Swedish-Iranian dissident accused of leading an Arab separatist group. The dissident was alleged to be implicated in attacks including one on a 2018 military parade that claimed 25 lives.

The fishmonger, Sadegh Bagheri (aka Boughi) in his late sixties, became an Instagram celebrity in recent months after videos of his folk songs and dance at the bazaar in the city of Rasht, a Caspian coastal city in northern Iran, went viral on social media.

Bagheri’s dance attracted the attention of shoppers who often circled around him and his fishmonger friends, clapped to the music, and sometimes joined in the happy dance.

Last week, police reportedly detained not only Bagheri, but also a dozen other Instagram influencers in Rasht for posting Bagheri’s videos. Authorities also took over the accounts of these individuals, removed all content and posted a notice that said the activity of these accounts had been aborted for “criminal content”.

Immediately after authorities shut down the fishmonger’s Instagram page, social media users posted tens of videos that showed people dancing in parks and streets to the same tune to show their solidarity with Bagheri.

Spectators joining in Bagheri performance outside his shop

Dancing is considered as debauchery by religious fundamentalists and hence falls under the category of completely unacceptable behavior. The fundamentalist religious establishment that has very close ties to political hardliners in power also strongly objects to most music, particularly lively pop music usually associated with dance.

The deputy police commander of Gilan Province, Brigadier-General Hossein Hassanpour, told the media that police had acted because the distribution of the videos of Bagheri’s dance in the bazaar of Rasht in social media had “violated public morals” and “broke norms”.

Four shops involved in the singing and dancing were shut down, too, he added.

Many have pointed out on social media that authorities did not take legal action against officials in the same city who were involved in a same-sex scandal or object to the state broadcaster’s employment of celebrities whose lifestyles are completely against the establishment’s proclaimed morality. Instead, they arrest people like the “happy old man” for dancing outside his shop, claiming that the society’s morality was under attack.

Girls imitating Bagheri’s happy dance in a park

Boundaries of what music is acceptable in the Islamic Republic and what is not are very murky. Iran has a national orchestra and numerous concerts are held across the country every year but due to the objection of the religious establishment in over four decades the state broadcaster has never shown any actual musical instruments or orchestras in action.

Politically influential fundamentalist religious leaders such as the imam of the religious city of Mashhad often dictate the rules in their territories. A concert held in Tehran and other cities without any problems, therefore, can easily be cancelled in a city such as Mashhad. These fundamentalists are backed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and imams, such as the fiery Ahmad Alamolhoda in Mashhad have been appointed by the 84-year-old ruler.

The action taken against the singing and dancing fishmonger in Rasht is said to have been prompted by the city’s Friday imam.

Animation celebrating Bagheri’s happy dance

Pointing out that all institutions of power in the country are currently in the hands of like-minded officials, a commentary in the reformist Ham-Mihan newspaper argued that a “single entity” is responsible for everything that is happening in the country now such as the arrest of the “happy old [dancing] man”, the Mashhad subway CCTV scandal, and Tehran subway “horror tunnels”.

By suppressing people, the “single entity” that has control over all institutions of power, the commentary in Ham-Mihan said, is sending a message to all, clear and with no reservation, that it determines everything that people are allowed or forbidden to do. “You can dance when I tell you.