US Deterrence Against Iran Proxy Attacks Ineffective, Evidence Shows

This move seems aimed at creating an overwhelming propaganda push to secure a parliament dominated by Raisi's supporters, ensuring minimal opposition to their complete takeover of the executive and legislative powers. Some social media reports also suggest an effort to replace Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei with an ultraconservative figure, further consolidating power.

A “political purification” push has already begun, with all regime loyalists outside the circle of hardliners being purged from managerial and even teaching positions.

Abdolreza Davari, an aide to former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has alleged that Iranian state television plays a pivotal role in this "political purification" project, with Ejei not immune to the attempts to eliminate anyone not closely aligned with the ultraconservative Paydari Party.

Meanwhile, Khabar Online website in Tehran revealed that the Raisi administration is preparing three lists of ultraconservative candidates to overwhelm voters. The website said that the Strategic Network of Friends of Revolution [Persian acronym SHARIAN] led by Roads and Urban Planning Minister Mehrdad Bazrpash will be the leading group among the three.

While Raisi and his associates deny any concerted efforts to influence the upcoming elections, political figures linked to Paydari confirm re-branding and renaming of ultraconservative groups in preparation for the elections. The deliberate tactic is aimed at confusing voters, who may have lost trust in ultraconservative politicians over the past four years due to inefficiency and opposition to nationwide protests in 2022.

Nonetheless, political figures close to Paydari, such as Esmail Kowsari have confirmed that groups linked to Paydari have been re-branding ahead of the elections. Other reports have indicated that re-branding and name changes among ultraconservative groups are likely to confuse the voters. 

Ultraconservative leaders know that their likeminded politicians have lost the nation's trust in the course of the past four years both in terms of the inefficiency of their representatives in the parliament and in the government and as a result of their violent reaction to the nationwide protests that shook Iran in 2022.

Ultraconservative politicians may be also hoping that the same groups under different names can be attractive for voters particularly if they come up with generous pledges to voters, although unmet promises about building four million homes, reducing employment and controlling inflation in the past two years have made people numb to any rosy promises.

Politicians and political analysts in Tehran do not hide their concern about yet another drop in election turnout after the disgraceful low turnouts in the parliamentary elections of 2020 and presidential elections of 2021, the lowest since 1979. In some districts just around 20 percent of voters cast ballots. However, Iran's reformists and moderates who were barred from running in those elections and are likely to be barred again in March, maintain that the ultraconservatives favor a low-turnout election as it would guarantee their win despite the embarrassment for the regime.

According to Khabar Online, politicians in Tehran have said that Paydari will coordinate its lists with Raisi. Moderate conservatives have already nicknamed groups such as SHARIAN as "Raisi's proxy groups." Salman Zakeri, a lawmaker from Urmia in northwestern Iran, says the idea of proxy groups is also meant to cover up the discords among the ultraconservative groups. He argued, "It is strange that they have a unity Council, and still they are divided into at least three groups."

In another development, while all of these tactics ahead of the elections are part of the campaign toward political purification, Expediency Council member Mohammad Sadr is adamant that "The idea of political purification has been wrong from the start." He stated, "When we talk about different shades of ultraconservative, it proves that there is no consolidated ultraconservative government."

Thai citizens were killed and abducted during an assault on southern Israeli communities in a terror raid by Hamas on October 7. Foreign workers, many from Thailand, have long been employed in Israeli farms bordering Gaza, contributing to various agricultural tasks.

Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has assured that the hostages in Gaza are safe and will soon be freed. However, details regarding the negotiations and the mediators involved have not been disclosed.

Israeli Channel 12 reported on Monday that the Thai government recently made a donation of 3 million baht, equivalent to approximately $85,000, to the United Nations' agency for Palestinian refugees. Questions have risen regarding whether the donation is linked to the ongoing negotiations.

Channel 12 has also revealed that Iran is playing a pivotal role in the negotiations for the release of the captured Thai nationals. If an agreement is reached, the captives may be transferred to Egypt and then to Tehran before being repatriated to Thailand.

Moreover, Channel 12 showcased a photograph of a Thai delegation, led by the country's deputy prime minister, meeting in Tehran with Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian a few days ago.

During the October 7 onslaught, which marked the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war, 32 Thai citizens were killed, and 23 were abducted, according to official Thai government figures.

The toll from the attack resulted in the loss of approximately 1,400 lives, with the majority being civilians, and over 240 individuals kidnapped.

Hezbollah has been exchanging fire with Israeli forces across the border since October 7, when Hamas -- another Iran-funded militia – declared war on Israel in a multi-thronged terror attack codenamed al-Aqsa Flood (Storm in Persian) and killed over 1,400 mostly civilians and took at least 241 more hostages into the Gaza Strip. Since Friday, when Hassan Nasrallah broke his month-long silence on its Palestinian ally’s war with Israel, the conflict has become deadlier with more frequent bouts of fire. 

On Saturday, Israeli warplanes conducted airstrikes along the border with Lebanon as the militant Hezbollah group attacked several Israeli army posts, including one that was struck with two large rockets. On Sunday, an Israeli civilian was killed when an anti-tank missile from Lebanon hit a vehicle near Kibbutz Yiftah in the Upper Galilee. Also on Sunday, a barrage of rockets launched from Lebanon landed in Kiryat Shmona, causing damage. Kiryat Shmona has been evacuated, along with dozens of other communities along the Lebanon border, due to repeated Hezbollah rocket and missile attacks. Earlier in the day, an Israeli airstrike reportedly killed four civilians in southern Lebanon. 

On Monday night, Hamas militants in southern Lebanon fired some 30 rockets at Israel, triggering air-raid sirens in cities including Haifa, Nahariya and Acre. Several of the rockets were intercepted, while most fell in the Mediterranean Sea. Hamas claimed responsibility for the attacks, saying it “struck the occupied city of Nahariya and southern Haifa in northern occupied Palestine [Israel] with 16 missiles.”

The Israeli army on Tuesday said it hit two targets inside the Lebanese territory, including a military post of the Hezbollah group. An IDF tank targeted a terror cell preparing to launch an anti-tank missile towards Moshav Shtula. A “suspicious aerial target” was also prevented from entering Israel from Lebanon on Tuesday afternoon. The death toll of the Hezbollah fighters killed by the Israeli forces since October 8 has risen to 63, according to a statement by the group.

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Although Nasrallah denied any involvement in the Hamas October 7 attack, he thanked all other Iranian proxy forces across the region for joining hands at the war against Israel. The al-Aqsa Flood battle has extended to more than one front, he said, adding, “We thank the Iraqi, Yemeni hands that joined this battle."

Iran's Revolutionary Guards founded Hezbollah in 1982, in the middle of Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war. It was part of Iran's effort to export its 1979 Islamic Revolution around the region and fight Israeli forces after their 1982 invasion of Lebanon.

Alongside continued calls for action against Israel from the top echelons of Iran's regime, Hezbollah has been escalating day by day, forcing Israel to keep its forces near the Lebanese border instead of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Nasrallah said in the televised address. "What's happening on the border might seem modest but is very important."

Iran and Hezbollah have been accused of full involvement in the planning of the October attack, with several public and secret joint meetings having been held since April in Beirut and Damascus. Interrogation of Hamas militants has revealed even the timing of the attack was coordinated with Tehran. Iran, along with Hezbollah has repeatedly threatened that the war will escalate to other fronts unless Israel halts its retaliatory offensive against Hamas in Gaza.

Lebanese pundit Bechara Khairallah told Iran International there is a kind of chaos in Hezbollah's leadership, especially because Nasrallah had promised to connect the battlefields but did not act on that promise. He underlined that Nasrallah’s halfhearted involvement in the war sparked by the October 7 attack showed that Hezbollah's primary allegiance is to the Islamic Republic, and Tehran's interests take precedence over the interests of Arab countries and the so-called Palestinian cause.

He also stressed that Hezbollah would not expand the conflicts in southern Lebanon since it is concerned about the severity of Israel's reaction. Despite the Lebanese people showing solidarity with Gazans, no one advocates for entering a war, and no political figure encourages Nasrallah to expand the war in Gaza, Khairallah noted. 

Last week, Samir Geagea, the leader of Lebanon's biggest Christian party, the Lebanese Forces, called on Hezbollah to withdraw its forces from the south of the country, stating that “dragging us into the war would be a crime," the country already economically on its knees. 

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As the conflict between Israel and Hamas reverberates across the Middle East, the risk of war between Hezbollah and Israel remains higher than at any point since their last big conflict in 2006. In addition to sporadic clashes in the West Bank and multiple rocket and drone attacks against bases hosting US forces in Iraq and Syria, Hezbollah’s active engagement in the war can significantly change the landscape of the conflict. 

However, Hezbollah has not yet unleashed its large missile arsenal against Israel or tried any incursions. According to the latest public estimates, Hezbollah has around 150,000 rockets and missiles, most with a reported range of a few dozen to hundreds of kilometers. On Thursday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia's Wagner mercenary group plans to provide Hezbollah with an air defense system, foreshadowing planning for a looming war.

Simiari faces a series of charges, including "collusion and conspiracy to act against the country's security, setting bombs in public places, and disrupting public order."

On May 18th, Simiari was taken into custody by Intelligence agents of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and transferred to a detention center within Evin Prison.

Following her arrest, authorities conducted a search of her residence, seizing personal belongings, including identification documents, mobile phones, a computer, money, gold, watches, and clothing belonging to her and her family.

After enduring two months of interrogation and detention in a separate cell, Simiari was moved to another solitary cell. A source close to Simiari's family revealed that prior to her transfer, she was coerced into a forced confession to camera.

Despite being transferred to the women's ward of Evin Prison in October, Simiari remains in detention without a court hearing or a verdict. It has been a recurring practice in the Islamic Republic to force detainees to provide forced confessions, subsequently leading to verdicts against political prisoners, a practice strongly criticized by human rights organizations.

Born in 1988 in Tehran, Simiari holds a degree in architecture and operated a women's beauty salon in Tehran before her detention. Her story underscores the ongoing concerns regarding human rights and due process in Iran's judicial system.

The river plays a vital role in sustaining both Afghanistan and Iran, serving as a critical source for agriculture and drinking water. However, it has been a persistent source of tension between the two neighboring countries.

Iran has long accused Afghanistan of obstructing the river's water flow through the construction of dams, a claim vehemently denied by Afghan authorities.

During a Monday meeting with Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs in the Taliban government, Ahmad Vahidi also engaged in discussions with a Taliban official on matters related to border security, counterterrorism, and creating conditions for the return of Afghan refugees, as reported by the IRNA state news agency.

Baradar, along with a 30-member delegation of Taliban officials, arrived in Tehran on November 4 and is expected to travel to other provinces in Iran, according.

Vahidi said during the meeting, "The issue of water casts a shadow on the medium-term and long-term plans of the two countries, and efforts must be made to resolve the problem."

Tensions regarding the Helmand River have persisted since the spring, and in early June, a clash between Iranian border forces and the Taliban resulted in the death of at least one Iranian soldier.

In the Taliban’s statement, it is said that Baradar requested that Iran release Afghan prisoners accused of minor crimes from prisons and transfer other Afghan prisoners to the Taliban government.

Iranian officials estimate that there are five million Afghans in Iran, with only 780,000 having refugee status, while the majority are undocumented. Some estimates even reach as high as eight million.