Netanyahu Says UN Nuclear Watchdog ‘Capitulating’ To Iran

Iran has enriched uranium to such levels that US officials have warned in recent months Tehran could produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon in less than two weeks.

“There is recognition that we need an active diplomatic plan to tackle Iran’s nuclear program, rather than allowing it to drift,” a western diplomat told the Financial Times.

The US, France, Germany and the UK halted diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis last September after Tehran angered rejected a draft proposal by the European Union to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement.

According to the Financial Times, there have been contacts with Iranian officials in recent months, including a meeting between officials from the so-called E3 - France, Germany, and the UK - and Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran's nuclear negotiator.

Diplomats and analysts say Rob Malley, the US Iran envoy, has met several times with Iran’s UN ambassador in New York Amir Saeid Iravani.

A person close to the administration said the talks focused mainly on the possibility of an exchange of prisoners with Iran, which holds at least three US citizens.

Last week, Tehran agreed to exchange prisoners with Belgium and released two Austrians.

IAEA detected particles enriched to almost weapons grade at the Fordow nuclear plant in January, indicating Iran enriched at least some uranium to 84% purity.

Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs Jake Sullivan hosted Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi and Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer at the White House to continue high-level discussions following up on the March US-Israeli Strategic Consultative group that had focused on Iran’s nuclear program and “ways to counter threats from Iran and its proxies.”

The meeting followed reports and speculations in recent days that Washington was discussing some possible deals with Iran to secure the freedom of American hostages in Tehran in exchange for expediting the release of Iranian funds frozen in South Korea and Iraq.

A State Department official Thursday told Iran International that US policy has not changed in regard with Iran’s nuclear program and President Joe Biden is “fully committed” not to ever allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. The official said that the United States “in full coordination with its allies and partners” is preparing all options to deal with Iran’s nuclear program.

However, the spokesperson reiterated that the administration continues to believe in diplomacy as the best way to achieve this goal, although talks to revive the JCPOA accord are not on Washington’s agenda.

However, the state of US-Israeli relations might not be so clear. Israel’s Channel 13 television reported that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called off a planned visit to Israel next week amid tensions between Jerusalem and Washington over Iran.

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At the same time, Blinken after a meeting with British, French and German foreign ministers tweeted that “I also underscored U.S. concerns about Iran’s nuclear escalation.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu separately in a video message said, "I have heard all of the reports about Iran. I have a sharp and clear message for both Iran and the international community: Israel will do whatever it needs to do to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons."

Clearly, Israel is demanding tougher responses to continued Iranian nuclear build-up. Whether Jerusalem is insisting on a military attack at this point is not clear, but tougher diplomatic and economic measures are certainly among its demands from Washington.

UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, issued a report to its members states this week that reportedly said Iran now has 114 kilograms of uranium enriched to up to 60-percent – an increase of 26.6 kg from the previous quarter. This can be easily further enriched to 90-percent purity needed for nuclear weapons in around two weeks.

The IAEA also reported that Iran has shown some flexibility regarding the Agency’s demands. This could be an effort by Tehran to forestall censure at the IAEA board meeting this month. One of Israel’s demands might be a strong condemnation of the Islamic Republic by the board.

About 42 kg of uranium enriched to 60-percent is what the IAEA calls a "significant quantity", defined as "the approximate amount of nuclear material for which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded".

Although Washington says there is no evidence that Iran has decided to proceed and build a weapon, in testimony to Congress in March, Gen. Marky Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff, warned that Tehran could “field” a bomb in several weeks, if it made the crucial decision.

The reports indicate partial Iranian cooperation, first in years, with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as the watchdog’s board of governors is scheduled to meet this month. In the past, Tehran has been censured by the board for lack of cooperation. 

The re-installed equipment is a fraction of what the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had planned to set up to improve its surveillance of Iran's nuclear activities, as the IAEA said it had agreed with Iran in March in a bid to defuse a standoff between both sides over Iran's cooperation.

The limited progress described in the reports did, however, include the installation of real-time enrichment monitoring equipment on the only lines of centrifuges enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, near weapons grade, at Natanz and Fordow, a senior diplomat said.

At the same time, Iran's stock of uranium enriched to up to 60% has continued to grow and is now roughly enough for two nuclear bombs, one of the two confidential quarterly reports to member states showed.

Iran has been pressing ahead with its enrichment program, which it has been progressively expanding and accelerating, including at its underground Fordow site that was developed in secret and which may have been built inside a mountain to protect it from potential air attack.

The 2015 Iran nuclear deal imposed strict limits on the types of centrifuges Iran could use and where as well as the purity it could enrich to and the amount of enriched uranium it could hoard, in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions against Iran.

After then-President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of that deal in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions, Iran breached and moved beyond the deal's enrichment level of 3.65 percent purity. By early 2021, as the new Biden administration signalled its readiness to re-enter the agreement, Tehran adopted a tough position and began enriching up to 20 and then 60-percent, to the point IAEA chief Rafael Grossi has called the deal an "empty shell" and diplomats say there are scant chances of reviving it.

One IAEA report on Wednesday said Iran now had 114.1 kg of uranium enriched to up to 60% and in the form of uranium hexafluoride (UF6), which can easily be enriched further - an increase of 26.6 kg from the previous quarter.

About 42 kg of uranium enriched to 60% is what the IAEA calls a "significant quantity", defined as "the approximate amount of nuclear material for which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded".

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INVESTIGATION GETS AN EXPLANATION

Although the United States says there is no evidence that Iran has decided to proceed and build a weapon, in testimony to Congress in March, Gen. Marky Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff, warned that Tehran could “field” a bomb in several weeks, if it made the crucial decision.

A senior diplomat has cautioned, however, that in practice it would take more than 55 kg of uranium enriched to 60% to make one bomb because some material is wasted during enrichment.

In addition, Iran's total stockpile of enriched uranium continues to grow and is now 23 times the 202.8-kg limit imposed by the 2015 deal, at 4.7 tonnes, the report said.

The IAEA also reported that after years of investigation and lack of progress with Iran on explaining uranium particles found at three sites, Iran had given a satisfactory answer on one of them to explain the presence of uranium particles there. The IAEA has also accepted Iran’s explanation about why particles of 83-percent enriched uranium were found earlier this year at one of its installations.

The Wall Street Journal reporter Laurence Norman, who has seen the report, tweeted that the IAEA had no choice but accept some explanations that seem plausible. If the Agency in the future comes across new information, it can re-open closed cases.

“Iran will conclude from this that by offering very little and quite possibly providing answers that aren't entirely accurate, they've whittled 4 safeguards files down to 2 and can keep grinding away until the agency gives up,” Norman wrote.

While the particles could be explained by the presence of a Soviet-operated mine and lab there and the IAEA had no further questions, a senior diplomat said, the IAEA's assessment remained that Iran carried out explosives testing there decades ago that was relevant to nuclear weapons.

The added monitoring equipment included surveillance cameras at a site in Esfahan (Isfahan) where centrifuge parts are made, one report said. The other added that the IAEA "awaits Iran's engagement to address" issues including the installation of more monitoring equipment and the two remaining sites where uranium particles were found.

With reporting by Reuters

As Brett McGurk, President Biden’s senior Middle East adviser, took a low-profile trip to Oman earlier this month for talks on possible diplomatic outreach to Iran, it seems this is more than ‘talks’. 

Neither the US nor Oman made the visit public, suggesting only something as serious as Iran could have called for such secrecy. Though the Biden administration has spoken of their desire to quash Iran’s nuclear program, its softly softly approach has called into question the lengths it will go to. 

Oman has recently been pitched as a broker between Iran and Saudi in the lead-up to the détente in March and stands a good chance of holding Iran’s hand as it deals with its biggest enemy. 

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Behind the scenes, Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on Tuesday that work with Iran on its nuclear enrichment is “a work in progress”. At a press conference in New York, he said the latest report of his visit in March will be released soon but admitted “there are a number of issues we are still working with Iran on, with some we are making progress and with others, no, so it’s an ongoing thing and we haven’t reached an end station”, explaining that it is a “complex” array of issues as the IAEA seeks clarity on three locations being investigated. 

However, whether the agency has really won greater oversight powers as agreed in March, is to be seen. The undeclared Marivan site near Abadeh, south of Esfahan, remains a hot topic. He said the IAEA is yet to implement the terms of the joint statement including additional monitoring capabilities for the IAEA. 

Speaking to Axios, a White House National Security Council (NSC) spokesperson downplayed the speculation of a new deal circulating in Jerusalem. “There is no US discussion of an interim deal and no discussion of sanctions relief, or closing safeguards cases," the spokesperson said, meanwhile quoting a senior European diplomat who said that the US is indeed working with the Omanis on the Iranian issue.

Keeping mum on talks, the White House NSC spokesperson deferred to ‘security concerns’ as the reason for the lack of transparency, but admitted discussions centered around regional diplomacy, "of which Iran is one aspect.”

Axios claims the Israeli government is concerned about a possible push by the Biden administration for a “freeze for freeze” interim agreement with Iran, which will be subject of discussions for Israeli minister for strategic affairs Ron Dermer and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi who are expected to discuss these concerns during their visit to the White House tomorrow (Thursday).

Meanwhile, as diplomatic chess pieces continue to shift, the Korea Economic Daily reported on Tuesday that South Korea and the US are discussing ways to release $7 billion in Iranian funds held in South Korea, a South Korean debt for oil imports from Iran due to global sanctions.

Just like the high-profile case of British-Iranian dual-national Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, held under ransom for a British debt to Iran, it is highly likely the deal has the same premise - cash for hostages. Currently there are three dual nationals with American citizenship and two individuals with US permanent residency held by Iran on trumped-up charges of espionage.

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Speaking to NPR this week, the US envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, continued to stress that diplomacy is the Biden administration’s first choice. “I think it's been proven to be the most effective way and the most sustainable way to make sure that Iran doesn't acquire a bomb,” he said, claiming to have forged “a credible diplomatic path”. 

In spite of the imbalance of attacks on the US personnel and bases in the Middle East versus retaliatory attacks carried out by the US, he still claims to also have “a credible deterrence path”. As of March, Iran had launched 83 attacks on the US in the likes of Iraq and Syria, with only four military responses, since the start of the Biden administration.

He said: “In other words, [the] president has said all options are on the table. You could imagine what that means. He has said explicitly that the military option will be on the table. It is far from the preferred option, but he will do what it takes to make sure Iran doesn't acquire a bomb. And we hope that we could resolve this through diplomatic means, and we're prepared to go down that path.”

The claim, not reported by the Agency or Western media, added that the resolution was the result of IAEA chief Rafael Grossi’s visit to Tehran in March. 

Grossi had paid a last-minute visit just before the IAEA board meeting in an apparent move to forestall a resolution condemning Iran’s lack of cooperation with the Agency. He Left Tehran with a paper resembling “peace in our times” claiming that an agreement to speed up cooperation had been reached. Since then, the agency has largely been silent about the results of the promised cooperation.

But Iranian officials have kept claiming progress with the IAEA since March, without any details or confirmation by the Agency.

The Tuesday report about progress came only days after Iran International reported that “the Islamic Republic is expected to show more flexibility on issues related to its nuclear program in exchange for the release of its frozen funds in Iraq, and free hostages with dual nationality in exchange for its assets in South Korea.” 

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A source had told Iran International last week that talks between Iran and the US on the release of Tehran's frozen assets could result in a deal soon. Earlier in the week, Israel’s state television channel Kan 11 also reported that a deal between Tehran and Washington will be finalized in the coming weeks. 

Citing unnamed sources with knowledge of the matter, a report by Mehr news agency close to Tehran’s hardliners said Tuesday that the latest case that has been resolved “through Tehran's goodwill and cooperation” pertained to Abadeh, one of the sites where the IAEA had detected traces of uranium related to Iran’s secret nuclear work more than 20 years ago. The report added that another case regarding traces of uranium particles enriched to 83.7 purity that emerged earlier this year has also been closed, without specifying any details. 

Sites not declared as part of Iran’s nuclear program where inspectors had discovered traces of uranium led to a resolution critical of Iran for lack of cooperation by the IAEA board of governors in June 2022. 

The resolution called on Iran to engage with the IAEA without delay and expressed “profound concern” at Iran’s failure to satisfy the agency over the traces of uranium. The resolution came with year-long talks to revive the nuclear deal collapsing over Iran’s strenuous demands beyond the original phrases of the accord. 

Now with another board of governors’ meeting this month, Tehran may be trying to claim progress, but the prospects seem dim in light of recent revelations about Iran developing a deep underground facility near the Zagros Mountains in central Iran, close to the Natanz nuclear facility, and dedicating hectares of land to increase the security buffer zone for Fordow nuclear plant -- another underground uranium enrichment facility northeast of the city of Qom. 

The IAEA is due to issue quarterly reports on Iran this week, ahead of a regular meeting of its 35-nation Board of Governors next week.

The UN watchdog has also kept expressing dissatisfaction with Iran’s response to the Agency’s questions and has not released any report indicating that the regime provided thorough explanations. In its official response regarding the Abadeh site, Iran said last year that the origin of the uranium particles is "unknown" and insisted the site was used for "the exploitation of fireclay through a contract with a foreign company decades ago" hence the IAEA’s “conclusion is absolutely false, unrealistic and biased.” 

Back in 2015, the IAEA concluded that Iran had operated an “organizational structure” carrying out “feasibility and scientific studies” in nuclear research before 2003, with some aspects continuing until 2009. When Iran agreed in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to drastically limit its nuclear program, the agency’s emphasis shifted towards monitoring its compliance with the agreement reached with the six world powers. 

But the pre-2003 work was revived as an issue by further agency investigations after Israel claimed in 2018 to have stolen a trove of documents from Iran, and by Tehran’s expansion after 2019 of its nuclear program beyond JCPOA limits. 

Such hypes about an impending agreement in the regime’s media are not unprecedented as Tehran keeps boasting about the IAEA’s confirmation of “the peaceful nature of its nuclear program,” something that has never happened in any report by the UN agency.