US Officials Warn Of Iran’s ‘Global Threat’, Nuclear Potential

The report seen by Reuters is the first official indication by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that indeed Iran’s high level of enrichment, very close to weapons grade is true.

"Iran informed the Agency that 'unintended fluctuations in enrichment levels may have occurred during transition period at the time of commissioning the process of [60%] product (November 2022) or while replacing the feed cylinder'. Discussions between the Agency and Iran to clarify the matter are ongoing," the confidential International Atomic Energy Agency report said.

Bloomberg reported on February 19 that IAEA inspectors had come across uranium particles enriched to 84 percent, but the agency had not confirmed or denied the report since then.

Bloomberg said that the IAEA needed to determine whether the higher-grade enrichment was intentional or the result of unintended technical processes. Earlier in February, inspectors had found an unusual set-up in interconnections of enrichment machines, called centrifuges.

The spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran immediately rejected Bloomberg's report as "distortion of facts" and said, "We have not enriched uranium to purity levels above 60 percent so far." He added that the IAEA has informed Tehran that "the presence of uranium particles with above 60-percent purity is common in sampling."

However, this week Iranian officials began to argue that such unintended higher-level enrichment sometimes happens in the fast-spinning centrifuge machines.

Iran’s Nuclear Agency Spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi said on Friday [Feb 24] that finding highly-enriched uranium particles in the pipes connecting centrifuges was a “normal issue.”

“For example, we are producing 5 percent enriched [uranium], 11 percent particle is seen in it, or we are producing 20 percent [enriched uranium], 47 percent particle is seen in it. We had several correspondences about this in the past… it’s a natural thing in enrichment,” he noted.

“The machine is spinning fast. If the amount of the feed decreases for a moment, the enrichment will increase by a few percent; but it doesn’t matter because the end product is what matters.”

Iranian officials also said that they expect IAEA inspectors and possible its director Rafael Grossi to travel to Tehran, but did not specify that any visit would be related to the highly enriched particles.

In the past two years, the Islamic Republic has reduced IAEA’s monitoring access to its nuclear installations and has violated limits set by the 2015 nuclear accord (JCPOA) with world powers that kept enrichment at 3.67 percent. Tehran began violating the limit in 2019, when the US imposed full oil export sanctions after withdrawing from the JCPOA.

Nearly two years of diplomatic attempts to restore the deal have failed, with the West also becoming critical of Iran’s bloody crackdown on popular protests and its supply of military drones to Russia.

Any of the three European signatories of the JCPOA, the United Kingdom, France or Germany could trigger a UN Security Council mechanism enshrined in the agreement, to reinstate international sanctions on Iran for its enrichment violations.

The IAEA Board of Governors will have its next meeting on March 6 and a report on Iran will be discussed. If the new violation is presented at the meeting, Western countries may decide to take the issue to the Security Council.

He arrived in the Belgian capital Brussels on Tuesday and was welcomed by the Swedish Member of the European Parliament Charlie Weimers, one of his hosts in a Wednesday event, titled “A secular, democratic Iran: implications for Europe's economy and security.”

The former Crown Prince held meetings with Belgian lawmakers from different parties at the country’s parliament later in the day. 

According to Iran International’s correspondent in Brussels, Bardia Afshin, Pahlavi was asked to talk about his cooperation with other prominent dissident figures and his negotiations with diplomats and officials of other countries meant to garner support for the current protests in Iran, which have been going on for over six months and have been described as the boldest challenge the Islamic regime has faced so far. 

During the event at the Belgian parliament, Pahlavi said that the global society should feel comfortable with the alternative to the Islamic Republic, noting that the sooner the transition happens, the sooner the sanctions can be removed and Iran can have foreign investment. He also briefed the lawmakers of the opposition’s ideas for the interim government, which will have specialized committees for different tasks that should be performed during the transition period until a referendum is held in the country.

Pahlavi spoke about the charter of solidarity and freedom of Iran, reiterating that it creates the basis of cooperation among opposition forces to oust the Islamic Republic. "Iran's Charter of Solidarity and Freedom", which is being finalized, includes the minimum principles of agreement for the majority of secular democratic forces. The exiled prince also said that the content of the charter is coordinated with the activists and protesters inside the country to reflect their views and visions for the future of Iran. He said the charter is composed of voices coming from inside the country.

Pahlavi also mentioned jailed lawyer and activist Nasrin Sotoudeh and civil and human rights activist Narges Mohammadi, as well as Fatemeh Sepehri, another activist opposed to the Islamic Republic, as being among the people whose ideas were considered in the charter. 

In their historic joint event in Washington on February 10, eight prominent opposition figures held a joint forum, signaling the emergence of a leadership council in the diaspora to campaign for international support in favor of Iran’s protest movement. They also called for support from democratic countries to change the regime in Iran and establish democracy.

On Wednesday, Weimers and Czech MEP Tomáš Zdechovský will host Pahlavi at the European Parliament for the first time where he is scheduled to deliver a keynote speech. His visit to Belgium is the latest leg of his European tour packed with meetings aimed at strengthening support for the newly formed Iranian democratic opposition in EU institutions and pushing for sanctions against the Revolutionary Guards – the IRGC.

Earlier in the month, more than 20,000 Iranians held a protest rally outside the European Council in the Belgian capital, to call on the European Union countries to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Thousands of Iranians from all over Europe held a massive rally in Strasbourg in January to pressure the European countries to list the IRGC.

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Before Brussels, he was in London, where he attended events at the Oxford Union and the Henry Jackson Society as well as the House of Commons. Hundreds of Iranians had come from across the UK packing the streets of Oxford on Monday, February 27, to catch a glimpse of the son of Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran. Amid a low police presence, there was a carnival-like atmosphere, with people holding red roses as a sign of respect for the prince. His supporters hope one day he will be the King in a constitutional monarchy.

Before the Iranian Revolution in 1979, he was the heir apparent to Iran’s 2,500-year-old throne, but he has repeatedly announced that he is not seeking the throne and people should vote if they want a Republic or a monarchy. 

Cohen made the remarks on Tuesday during a joint press conference with his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock in Berlin.

“The fingerprints of Iran state terrorism can be seen in the case of Ukraine. The Iranian regime is no longer just a regional problem but also a problem to Europe and today to the world,” stressed Cohen.

He went on to say that the international community cannot ever accept a nuclear Iran and Tehran must be forced to return to full compliance with international law and the and its nuclear obligations, including cooperation with the UN watchdog, the International Atomic Eneergy Agency.

“This is the time…. This is the time to take steps. This is the time to do actions to prevent Iran to achieve a nuclear weapon,” added Cohen.

Elsewhere in his statements, Cohen called on Germany to designate Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as a terror organization and extend the designation to all Europe.

“Iran is like a cancer. It finances Hamas, the Jihad, and Hezbollah. A few days ago, the anti-Semitic Iranian regime imposed sanctions on German Jewish leaders and local organization. Israelis and Germans need to fight this together.”

For her part, Germany’s Baerbock said any nuclear escalation by Iran would be "devastating for the whole region".

She said Germany and Israel have a shared concern over reports Iran was enriching uranium to 84 per cent.

In an interview on Face the Nation, Burns told Margaret Brennan that Iran’s military ties with Russia is “moving at a pretty fast clip in a very dangerous direction right now…”

At the same time, he said despite Iran’s uranium enrichment program which has advanced far and can produce bomb material in a matter of weeks, the United States believes a decision to produce nuclear weapons has not been made yet.

Manufacturing a bomb can be a more secretive process in comparison with enrichment, which the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is somewhat monitoring inside the country. While the enrichment installations are being monitored, the bomb-making process can take place in a completely separate and secret location.

The United States believes that Iran stopped its nascent weaponization program in 2003 when news about its secret nuclear program became public and Western powers began exerting pressure on Tehran.

“To the best of our knowledge, we don't believe that the Supreme Leader in Iran has yet made a decision to resume the weaponization program that we judge that they suspended or stopped at the end of 2003,” Burns said during the interview.

Iran began breaching an enrichment limit imposed by the Obama era JCPOA accord after the Trump administration imposed full oil export sanctions in 2019. First, Tehran began enriching to 5 percent, beyond the agreement’s 3.67-percent limit, but when the Biden administration signaled its readiness to revive the deal, Iran announced enrichment to 20 percent in early 2021.

As negotiations were taking place in Vienna that year, Iran increased enrichment to 60 percent, which is very close to the 90-percent purity needed for nuclear weapons.

This month Bloomberg reported that IAEA inspectors found 84-percent enriched uranium particles in an Iranian nuclear facility. The UN watchdog has not denied the report, while Tehran has said that unintentional over-enrichment can sometimes happen in the fast-spinning centrifuges.

Burns also warned that the close military ties between Moscow and Tehran can pose a threat not only to Ukraine but also to regional countries. Iran has already provided hundreds of Kamikaze drones that Russia has used against Ukraine. Burns revealed that Iran has also provided Russia with ammunition for artillery and tanks.

“Russia is proposing to help the Iranians on their missile program and also at least considering the possibility of providing fighter aircraft to Iran as well,” the CIA director said.

Iran already has medium-range missiles that could be modified to carry nuclear warheads but any Russian assistance in this regard could be extremely dangerous for the region and possibly beyond.

Israel has vowed that it will not tolerate a nuclear Iran and is preparing to use military force if needed to neutralize its nuclear program.

US officials have also been increasingly signaling that President Joe Biden will not tolerate a nuclear Iran, after JCPOA talks hit a dead-end in September. "If they start getting too close, too close for comfort, then of course we will not be prepared to sit idly by," US Special Representative for Iran Robert Malley told National Public Radio in November.

The Paris-based Financial Action Task Force is an inter-state organization that leads global action to tackle money laundering, terrorist and proliferation financing. Its recommendations impact decisions by governments and private sector firms in making banking and investment decisions.

Iran and North Korea are the only two countries on FATF’s black list, and all member states are urged to apply enhanced due diligence in dealing with them.

Experts say that even if sanctions imposed by Western countries on Iran are lifted, Tehran must adhere to FATF standards in banking and financial controls to be considered a safe business partner by international actors.

Most important are measures to prevent money laundering and financing of terrorism.

Although FATF’s decision comes as no surprise given Tehran’s refusal to accept its demands, it coincides with unprecedented financial and economic chaos in Iran in recent days.

Iran’s previous government submitted legislation to parliament in 2017 to adopt laws to implement FATF’s standards, but the hardliners have since prevented the final approval of the laws.

Opponents argue that if Iran accedes to FATF demands it will not be able to provide financial help to allied groups in the region that are part of Tehran’s “axis of resistance”.

These groups, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah and some Palestinian militant organizations, are designated as terrorist by some countries and act as proxy forces to help the Islamic Republic spread its influence in other countries.