Iran Experiencing New Strikes, Protests As Rial Keeps Falling

Younes Panahi said on Sunday that "It was found that some people wanted all schools, especially girls' schools, to be closed."

"It has been revealed that the chemical compounds used to poison students are not war chemicals, and the poisoned students do not need aggressive treatment, and a large percentage of the chemical agents used are treatable," he told a press conference.

Homayoun Sameh Najafabadi, a member of the health committee of the parliament, also confirmed in an interview with Didbaniran website that the poisoning of female students in schools of Qom and Borujerd is intentional.

These statements are made in a situation that earlier Youssef Nouri, the Minister of Education called the reports about the poisoning of schoolgirls "rumors", claiming that the students taken to the hospital had "underlying diseases".

However, on Sunday, Majid Monemi, the deputy governor of Lorestan, said 50 female students of a high school in Borujerd, western Iran, were poisoned again.

The serial poisoning of students in Iran started in December in the religious city of Qom and spread to several other cities.

The government has not determined the cause of the poisonings, but some local media say it could be the work of religious zealots who want to prevent girls from attending school.

Teenage schoolgirls joined the antigovernment protests last year and many removed their hijab in protest.

Iranian government officials, experts and the regime’s opponents have long argued that economic sanctions imposed by the Trump administration since 2018 inflicted a serious blow to Iran’s weak economy, but few have ventured to quantify the impact.

What is clear now is that Iran’s oil-dependent currency, the rial, fell from 35,000 to more than 600,000 against the US dollar in exactly five years. This led to very high inflation, officially at more than 50 percent, which has impoverished tens of millions of Iranians. But how much of the bad news was the result of sanctions and how much was the outcome of a natural trend in Iran’s state-controlled and inefficient economy.

Masoud Nili, an economist in Tehran believes that the impact of sanctions on the fall of the rial has been significant and serious. In a television program reported by Roouydad24 news website. Nili said that if the United States had not withdrawn from the JCPOA nuclear deal and imposed sanctions, the rial would be probably trading at 100,000 against the US dollar, instead of 600,000 and counting.

The economist based his estimate on trends since at least 2000 and concluded that the rial would have lost value in the past 5 years, but at a manageable pace.

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Iran’s currency was trading at 70 to the dollar right before the 1979 revolution but in the 44 years since the establishment of the Islamic Republic it has steadily declined and now is headed toward a 10,000-fold fall in value.

But in Nili’s estimate, without the ‘Trump’s sanctions’ the Islamic Republic would have faced rial’s natural fall and not a catastrophic decline that it cannot control now.

The economist had a similar appraisal of the rate of inflation. Looking at trends in more than two decades he argued that the average annual inflation rate was around 16 percent, except in the past five years. The latest official figures put the inflation rate at more than 50 percent for January 2023, although there are no independent estimates.

Nili argued that the difference between the 16 percent average since the year 2000 and the current inflation rate is because of US sanctions.

But that difference is exactly what made the current situation an hyper-crisis instead of a weak economy limping along with the steady income from oil exports.

The Biden administration that assumed office criticizing the its predecessor’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear accord, also argued that sanctions have been ineffective and Tehran has expanded its nuclear program instead of making any concessions.

Critics on the other hand argued that sanctions take time to leave a serious impact and those imposed on Iran would have hardly worked in just two years from 2018-2020.

As the Biden administration entered talks with Tehran in April 2020 to revive the JCPOA, it did not suspend Trump’s sanctions and Iran struggled to sell oil and engage in in international trade. After depleting its foreign currency reserves, the economic situation began to quickly deteriorate, especially as optimism disappeared in the latter part of 2022 in the absence of a new nuclear deal with the US.

In a new directive, Iran’s FDA, which operates under the supervision of the ministry of health, also ordered pharmacies to put the obligatory hijab "instructions" in the view of their clients as well.

According to the directive, pharmacy managers are responsible for monitoring the way female employees are covered. Before an owner opens a pharmacy, s/he is required to give a written commitment in this regard.

In the past weeks, at least two pharmacies in Tehran and Amol in the north have been sealed off due to the “improper” hijab of their female employees.

In another development, Shiraz University has summoned those students whose hijab was deemed insufficient to participate in "mandatory hijab counseling" sessions.

According to the Telegram channel of the country’s Student Union Council, the students whose "improper hijab or removal of hijab" has been reported to a special committee are asked to participate in the counselling sessions.

In the past days, several reports have been published about pressure and threats against students over their hijab.

In a recent move, Tehran University threatened that students who do not comply with hijab regulations will be subject to "disciplinary action".

According to reports received by Iran International, education authorities do not allow these students to continue their studies, and the directors of some schools, in cooperation with security institutions, have banned their presence in classrooms.

Some families say the school administrators have told them that the presence of the protesting children in school may have a "negative effect" on other students.

Asghar Baqerzadeh, the Deputy Education Minister had said there is no problem for students who "were active in the recent protests” to continue their studies.

Also, serial poisonings in girls' schools that have endangered the lives of hundreds of children continue at different locations.

In the latest case, Iranian media reported that students of a high school in Boroujerd showed severe poisoning symptoms and 44 students were hospitalized.

This is the third time mass poisoning have been reported at this school in the past week.

The serial poisoning of students in Iran started in December in the religious city of Qom and spread to several other cities.

The government has not determined the cause of the poisonings but some local media say it could be the work of religious zealots who want to prevent girls from attending school.

Teenage schoolgirls joined the antigovernment protests last year and many removed their hijab in protest.

The reports quote rumors circulating on the popular messaging application Telegram as saying that Mostazafan Foundation Chief Parviz Fattah, a member of the ultraconservative Paydari Party is likely to replace Vice President Mohammad Mokhber who has been under attack for the rapidly falling national currency in the past week.

In a closed-door session of the parliament Saturday morning, Mokhber reportedly refused provide a convincing answer for the rial’s fall and told the lawmakers: "That is how it is. Take it or leave it!"

Conservative news website Nameh News, which reported the possibility of a change at the top level of the Raisi administration on Saturday, said that Vice President for Economic Affairs Mohsen Rezaei is also likely to be replaced by Zahedi Vafa, another Paydari member.

Political observers have been saying recently that no routine change in the combination of the cabinet can save the administration, particularly because all of these hardliner conservative groups are equally inefficient and unpopular. Nonetheless, rumors in Tehran indicate that the new arrivals will strengthen the position of Planning and Budget Organization Chief Massoud Mirkazemi and his efforts to contain the current chaos.

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President Ebrahim Raisi recently promised during a public meeting with Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei that the rial will be strengthened. Since then, during the past week the rate of exchange for the US dollar has risen from over 450,000 rials to more than 570,000.

At the same time, while the government is under pressure for the failure or rather lack of an economic policy, an editorial in the reformist daily Sharq predicted that according to political observers in Tehran, as street protests seems to have receded, Iran is likely to face a new wave of unrest because of the inevitable rise in prices as the rial falls.

According to Shargh newspaper, while social protests in the Iranian year 1401 [2022-23] led to major unrest, in 1402 [2023-24] economic matters are likely to create political turmoil. Shargh wrote that this possibility is so strong that even some government institutions have expressed concern about the likelihood.

Meanwhile, political analyst Ghasem Mohebali told Rouydad24 website in an interview that "We are facing a government whose style of management is based on wishful thinking and chanting slogans, mindless of the fact that time is over for that kind of management." Mohebali added: "This is a system that has all the political power and financial resources at its disposal and does not need the people for being elected another round."

"The government thinks that by spreading 'good news' about developments such as a probable visit by the Sultan of Oman, it can lower the rates of exchange, but it does not realize that this wishful thinking does not solve any problem," Mohebali added. He said the government is in a situation that it cannot step back from its positions and at the same time it cannot continue its current policies.

In another development, lawmaker Shiva Ghassemipour said: "although the economic situation was not ideal before Raisi, people's livelihood has become increasingly more difficult under the Raisi administration." Pointing out the political and economic impasse, she said that "It would have not possibly made much of a difference even if someone other Raisi was steering the administration."