Into Fourth Month Of Unrest, Tehran Accuses ‘Enemies’ Of Sedition

In an article published by Bloomberg December 15, headlined ‘A Democratic Iran is Coming and it will lead the Middle East,’ Robert Kaplan suggests that “nothing has the potential to change the region as much as a more liberal regime” in Iran.

Named by Foreign Policy magazine in 2011 and 2012 as ‘one of the top 100 global thinkers,’ Kaplan supported the 2003 US-led Iraq invasion on the basis that it would unleash what he told NPR in October 2002 was a “secular, urbanized developed tradition”. However, he was not alone in that optimistic assessment. Most of the US Congress and media were also believers in removing Saddam Hussein from power.

Unlike many Arab countries, Kaplan argues, Iran’s borders are not “artificial…drawn by Europeans.” This, he claims, Iran shares with the Persian Gulf emirates and kingdoms – although Saudi Arabia dates only to 1932.

Whatever his views about ‘democracy’ or ‘liberalism,’ Kaplan is firmly a realist. He notes “Saudi Arabia may understandably offend Western humanitarians” and expects the US to broker a future Iranian ‘normalization’ with Israel.

Noting Iran’s rich energy reserves, currently hemmed in by US ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions, Kaplan admires the doyen of the realist school, the US Secretary of State who saw Iran’s Pahlavi shah as a US ally against adversaries Iraq and the Soviet Union.

“Henry Kissinger told me that had the Pahlavi dynasty remained in power, Iran, given its strong state and civilizational richness,” Kaplan writes, “would have evolved into a constitutional monarchy with an economy comparable to South Korea’s.”

Kaplan’s commitment to real politic rather than ‘humanitarianism’ opens him to the possibility of a “post-clerical” Iran asserting itself regionally, perhaps “developing even stronger ties” with China than “Germany now has.” And Kaplan is also aware that a “somewhat chaotic, less centrally controlled” Iran might grapple with “large Kurdish, Azeri, Turkoman and Baluch minorities.”

A century of politics

The priority of Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh, writing in the Wall Street Journal December 12, is disputing the assessment of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) that current unrest in Iran “poses no threat to the regime.”

Gerecht, a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former ‘Iranian-targets’ CIA officer, championed, like Kaplan, the Iraqi and Afghan interventions. In March 2003, he signed a statement that US intervention in Iraq would help the “democratization of the wider Middle East.”

The problem was that most optimists on Iraq were simplifying the environment in the Middle East and not considering the Islamic Republic’s long-held policy of exporting its Shia ideology and playing the role of a spoiler.

WithTakeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Gerecht argues that the CIA has been misled by the “disappointing results of the Arab Spring and of Western military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq.” Iran differs from the Arab world in its history since the 1905-11 Constitutional Revolution, Gerecht and Takeyh write, with a century of Iranians’ “involvement in politics” under both Shahs and since 1979 the Islamic Revolution.

Iranians’ “critiques of authoritarianism,” they continue, have increased with the “massive expansion” or Iran’s “educational infrastructure” since 1979 with now “nearly six million university students, almost 60% of whom are women.”

Hence Iranians “are unlikely to fall victim again to the allure of a secular strongman or militant mullah, having seen the damage such leaders cause. The Arabs who revolted against tyranny a decade ago didn’t have the advantage of decades of trial and error. Self-criticism isn’t a Middle Eastern forte, but Iranians have come far in placing the blame for their own predicament on themselves.”

Gerecht and Takeyh rule out dangers of ethnic fragmentation and look forward to a “post-Islamic Iran…[with] a far bigger Western fan club that did the elected Islamists of North Africa.” Presumably evoking the Egyptian military regime that receives the second biggest chunk of US foreign aid after Israel, the pair cite Samuel Huntington – he of the ‘clash of civilizations’ – to note that US support for “nascent democracies increases the chance of their survival.”

Raisi addressed the West saying that they sanctioned Iran supposing that the Islamic Republic will be stopped but the country’s production increased instead.

Speaking in the city of Birjand on Thursday, Raisi said “despite the sanctions, both oil and non-oil exports of the country increased... showing that the sanctions did not bite.”

The comments come at a time when Iran’s national currency has hit another historic low against the US dollar this week.

Traders in Tehran exchanged 387,000 rials to one US dollar on Wednesday, up from a closing rate of 368,000 last week.

With one of the world’s largest natural gas deposits, the government is unable to provide natural gas for industries and many have been forced to shut down in December.

The Supreme National Security Council earlier issued a warning that households which use excessive amount of natural gas would be fined and their gas would be shut off.

Inflationary pressure on consumers has also accelerated with food price inflation reaching alarming levels in 12 provinces across Iran showing an average jump of 67.7 percent compared with the same period in the previous year.

Raisi’s comments regarding progress comes as reports from Tehran indicate people are withdrawing their money from banks to buy gold and US dollars.

It is time for the Iranian government to decide which one is important for it: The regime's survival or protecting the oligarchy of its rich insiders, Raghfar said in an interview with Rouydad24 website.

He noted that President Ebrahim Raisi promised to control inflation and prevent the devaluation of the national currency, but during the past eight months the US dollar has risen by another 110,000 points reaching 380,000 rials. This shows to what extent Iranians' purchasing power has declined.

Speaking on the current situation and accelerated price increases, Raghfar reiterated that the main reason for instability in the market is the presence of powerful insiders and institutions who have been pocketing hefty sums as consumer prices rise.

Other economists, some politicians and opponents of the Islamic Republic have been saying that the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and the financial holdings operating under the aegis of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's office are the main players in Iran's economy, adding that they have chased the private sector out of Iran's economy.

Raghfar speaking in Tehran as someone who is not a regime opponent argued that this situation benefits those who want to overthrow the Islamic Republic.

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He added that if the government fails to control inflation, it should expect an a larger uprising by the poor in addition to the current unrest. The combination, he said will lead to destructive consequences no one is able to control. He pointed out that the government does not give any indication to the people that their economic problems are important for the officials.

"If the government takes this challenge seriously, it should know that there is no way out of this crisis other than pushing [oligarchies] out of the country's economy," Raghfar said.

Raghfar also accused the government of a direct role in runaway inflation. "The main player…is the government itself as it takes measures to cope with its budget deficit."

All economists and politicians agree that in the past five years the state has vastly increased liquidity by resorting to printing too much money.

He suggested that the government should instead reduce its expenses and try to increase tax revenues by taxing the oligarchic companies that currently enjoy exempt status.

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Speaking almost along the same lines, historian Majid Tafreshi told moderate conservative Khabar Online website that the ongoing crisis in Iran is partly due to the elimination of moderates from the Iranian political scene. He added that even some children of prominent officials have joined those who are unhappy with the government's performance. This comes, he added, while some officials appear to benefit from turning Iran into another North Korea.

Nonetheless, Tafreshi says it is still not too late for a dialogue between the protesters and the government.

However, not only many Friday prayer Imams have called for harsher measures against protesters, but some non-clerical figures have also been beating on the drums of more executions to silence opposition.

While many Iranians have been complaining about summary trials that have so far led to the execution of two young men in their early 20s in less than one week, conservative Lawmaker Mostafa Mirsalim has said on Wednesday that the courts should issue and implement death sentences faster - in 5 to 10 days. Some say the man who is known for his outlandish remarks and is better known in Iran as the member of parliament from Mars is appeasing the hardliner Judiciary because his own son is in jail for being a member of an outlawed opposition group - a situation that usually entails death sentence. But Mirsalim's son has just returned to jail after several months of furlough that was exposed on social media.

Lawmaker Shahryar Haydari said in an interview that "the country cannot be controlled with military confrontations with protesters."

He added that the committee is reviewing the government's approach to offer its suggestions for a way out of the current crisis. However, he added that it is up to the Iranian Judiciary to decide who should be pardoned and who should be punished.

Haydari said the Judiciary should pardon all those who simply protested in the streets and did not engage in violence. Referring to the execution of two protesters in less than one week, the lawmaker suggested that the government should not follow policies that increase tensions in society.

He further claimed that there have been fewer protests in recent days, but the government should not think protesters have given up their demands. The government should listen to them and President Ebrahim Raisi should be personally accountable for all the problems in the country.

However, a hardliner lawmaker Mostafa Mirsalim said Wednesday that the Judiciary should execute protesters quickly - within ten days after their arrest.

Haydari, stressing that military confrontation with the protests cannot solve the country's problems, called for economic solutions for the people's financial problems.

But that is one goal Raisi cannot accomplish by himself without a major change in foreign and domestic policies, a herculean task hinging on support by the authoritarian ruler Ali Khamenei.

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Meanwhile, reformist sociologist and political activist Hamid Reza Jalaeipour said in an interview with Etemad Online that "Protests have still not entered a revolutionary phase, but they will, if the situation becomes increasingly critical. He added that the execution of a young protester, Mohsen Shekari on December 8 has deeply moved and agitated even those Iranians who were not actively taking part in the protests.

Jalaeipour said that most of those protesting in the streets are women and young Iranians including students. Nonetheless, he added, around 70 percent of Iranians are still silent and have not aligned with the opposition although they are not happy with the government's performance.

He pointed out that what is happening in Iran is not a riot. "Riots end soon but this movement is continuing. It has so many artistic and cultural manifestations and it has attracted worldwide support," Jalaipour said, and added that the government should allow these demands to be voiced. But unfortunately, the more politically active the society becomes, the less openness the government shows.

"During the past 90 days while this movement has been going on, the government has not tried to convince the people that it cares for their views. If this approach continues…a revolutionary phase might start," he said, adding that "The government has managed to control the situation during the past three months, but it cost hundreds of lives."

Jalaeipour added that some of the five million elders in the country are looking for conservative solutions. But this country has about 20 million youths and some 38 million others in between the two groups. The ideologically minded elders control the government regardless of what the other 58 million want. If they feel really fed up, they might end their silence.

Meanwhile, reformist politician Mehdi Ayati told Rouydad24 that if the government uses more violence against protesters, street unrest might go underground. He stressed: "Violence is not the right answer to [protests.]"

Although it might be too late, people will be happy when the government takes their demands and views seriously. But it has ignored the public’s demands and views for a long time. It should have attended to the needs of young people and women earlier.

Ayati, a former lawmaker, said that if the government wants to make up for its shortcomings, the first step is to avoid violence. He warned that violence will boost dissent to an uncontrollable level.

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi on Tuesday told China’s Deputy Prime Minister, Hu Chunhua, that the Islamic Republic is “unhappy” about the position of Beijing and expects its ally to make up for it.

However, he emphasized that the visit of the Chinese delegation to Iran is “important” for the development of mutual economic and commercial cooperation.

In a statement last week during the visit of China’s President Xi Jinping to Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Chinese side made a reference to three small islands in the Persian Gulf that Iran took over as its historic territory in 1971 but the United Arab Emirates claims as its own.

The concluding statement of the meeting that was attended by GCC dignitaries as well as Xi Jinping said: “The leaders affirmed their support for all peaceful efforts, including the initiative and endeavors of the United Arab Emirates to reach a peaceful solution to the issue of the three islands; Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa, through bilateral negotiations in accordance with the rules of international law, and to resolve this issue in accordance with international legitimacy.”

Following the United Kingdom’s withdrawal of its forces from the region to give independence to the small Arab littoral Sheikdoms, Iran’s Mohammad Reza Shah decided to take over the Greater and Lesser Tunbs and Abu Mousa. The UAE was just being formed and there was a serious political and military vacuum on the Arab side of the Persian Gulf.

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In the wake of China’s stance, many Iranians on social media harshly criticized their government for a major failure. They asked the clerical regime what exactly went wrong that its ally, China acquiesced to such a statement.

Iran’s foreign ministry on Saturday held a meeting with the Chinese envoy to Tehran to express its displeasure about the statement, but unlike the language it uses for Western countries, the foreign ministry did not use the term “summoning” saying the Chinese diplomat was “invited” and refrained from using terms like “protest” or “condemn”.

It said on its website that the envoy “had a visit” with an Iranian official on Saturday, during which Tehran’s “strong dissatisfaction” was expressed.

Regime’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian also came under fire after he said in a tweet “the islands are inseparable parts of Iran and are part of the eternal belongings of our motherland. We firmly insist on the need for respecting Iran's territorial integrity.”

Iranians on social media strongly criticized him saying he “did not even dare” to name China, and asking why he has only tweeted in Farsi this time whereas he used to tweet both in Farsi and Chinese to express support for China on Taiwan.

However, it was not the end of the story as China and the Gulf Cooperation Council member states urged for dialogue on Iran’s “destabilizing regional activities” and “support for terrorist and sectarian groups and illegal armed organizations”, as well as its ballistic missiles and drones proliferation.

The statement also emphasized that the peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear program must be ensured urging the Islamic Republic to fully cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Again, Iran’s reaction was so mild when the Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nasser Kanani said it was a “surprise” to see Iran-related clauses in the statement.

Hardliner Kayhan newspaper affiliated with the office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wrote on Sunday, “The expansion of ties between Beijing and Riyadh is more a strategic challenge for the undisputed dominance of the US rather than being a challenge for Iran.” It added that China is entering a region that has always been considered the backyard of Washington.”

The state-run Iran Daily also claimed in its editorial Sunday that China and Russia “have no alternative in their regional policy except Iran” saying relations between Beijing and Arab states “will lead to the realization of the Islamic Republic’s interests.”

However, Nusratullah Tajik, the former ambassador of Iran to Jordan told a website Sunday that “The Chinese have clearly told us they do not agree with our anti-American approaches.”

“We should not rely too much on China as they may use or even misuse Iran's anti-US policy,” he added.