Iran Continues Low-Key Response To China Over GCC Statement

Traders in Tehran exchanged 380,000 rials to one US dollar on Tuesday, up from a closing rate of 368,000 last week.

The accelerated fall of the rial has led to reasonable concerns in Tehran business and media circles that soon the dollar will surpass the 400,000 mark in a downward spiral no one can control.

Amid soaring prices, people on social media and websites said Ali Salehabadi, the CBI must be removed while some others believe he is going to resign soon; something he denied later in the day.

A lawmaker on Tuesday addressed the government, saying “President Raisi, Minister of Economy, Governor of the Central Bank, do you know the dollar rate has reached 380,000 rials?”

“What is the current situation you have created for people? They are facing problems in renting houses,” added Ramezanali Sangdavini.

According to a recent report by EcoIran website, food prices have jumped an average of 67.7 percent compared with the same period in the previous year.

Rials drop is directly tied to a 50-percent annual inflation rate. Recently, the CBI reported that housing prices in Tehran increased by 45.9% compared to the same period last year.

The average price of one square meter of housing in Tehran has reportedly reached 467,000,000 rials.

Abolfazl Amouei, the spokesman of the parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said Monday plans are in place to discuss the establishment a new intelligence organization for the Judiciary branch. The aim of the new outfit will be "preventing and countering measures to threaten and bribe judicial authorities."

Gathering information and reports about sensitive cases “to counter the propaganda campaigns by the global arrogance” is also mentioned as part of the duties of the new organization, indicating that the body will also coordinate with other entities out the judiciary apparatus. “Global arrogance” is a term used by the Islamic Republic to refer to the United States.

Iran has a traditional Intelligence Ministry, but other state entities, such as the Revolutionary Guard have established their own spy and security agencies. Now it appears the hardliner Judiciary has joined the game, which is not an unprecedented in the Islamic Republic. The trend, which has been evolving for over four decades, reached a turning point in 2009 with the formation of the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an intelligence agency within the IRGC and part of the Council for Intelligence Coordination. 

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The Council is comprised of at least 13 to 16 separate active intelligence agencies, according to different sources. Most of these parallel agencies have strong ties with the IRGC and the judiciary as well as the office of the Supreme Leader. The intelligence minister, the interior minister, foreign minister and the country’s chief justice are members of the body. The IRGC’s Intelligence Organization, and its Intelligence Protection Organization, and their counterparts in the traditional Army and Police force as well as cyber police are some of the other members. 

Such parallel structures among the intelligence agencies is a can of worms that regime’s officials rarely speak about. However, a few politicians, such as outspoken conservative Ali Motahari, who was deputy-speaker in the previous parliament, have talked about the issue and repeatedly criticized it. Motahari famously said that the intelligence minister should not allow other organizations to interfere in the work of the Ministry. Heydar Moslehi, the intelligence minister under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, also warned against the "parallel work and confusion in intelligence operations." Amid tensions between the ministry and the IRGC’s intelligence organization, he had also sued the Fars news agency, affiliated to the Revolutionary Guards, accusing it of "spreading false news."

The deputy head of Fars news agency has been recently arrested for “forging briefing reports” after a large set of documents was released by a hacktivist group late in November.

Earlier in the week, Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei also criticized the forced confessions coerced through torture and threats from people who have been arrested during the current wave of protests. His remarks suggest that such confessions, which have been the basis for the regime’s justification of executions and prison sentences, have been extracted by intelligence agencies outside the judiciary, mainly by IRGC intelligence. His criticism came on the backdrop of remarks by the former chief of Iran's state television, who says there are operatives in intelligence organizations with unknown identities, with vast powers and no accountability. 

Mohammad Sarafraz who resigned his post as head of IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) in May 2016 due to interventions in his organization's financial operations by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba and former IRGC intelligence Chief Hossein Taeb, was one of the closest persons to Khamenei until then. The Supreme Leader later appointed Sarafraz as a member of the Supreme Council of Cyberspace. But Sarafraz says he resigned this post also, although Khamenei never accepted his resignation.

In an interview conducted by one of his former aides, Shahrzad Mirgholikhan, and published on You Tube, Sarafraz said that Iranian intelligence officers can even tell judges at the court what they should decide when ruling on various cases.

Sarafraz accused the government and banking system of systematic corruption that has led to vast income gaps among Iranians. He said most of this corruption exists in companies that enjoy the benefits of private firms but pretend to be government entities when they are paying taxes or report their financial status. These companies, he said, leave no room for competition by real private companies.

Eighty percent of Iran’s economy is directly or indirectly controlled by the government or semi-official companies. A privatization drive began 15 years ago, but it mainly turned into setting up quasi-governmental firms controlled by powerful insiders who block competition and use public funds to stay afloat.

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Sarafraz explained that these entities use insider information to benefit from foreign exchange and gold price fluctuations when the government intervenes in the market. They also make hefty profits by circumventing sanctions.

Sarafraz also criticized the government for destroying most political parties and depriving Iranians of the right to choose their own candidates for the parliament or presidency. He said, "I believe that in a healthy system the government should provide a budget for political parties that train cadres for the government."

Instead, Sarafraz pointed out, rich and powerful government institutions act like political parties. These institutions determine who should be the country's President or who should win in the parliamentary elections, thanks to their financial, political and intelligence powers. Sarafraz was probably referring to the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and Khamenei's office and family who have been accused by politicians, such as reformist cleric Mehdi Karrubi, of engineering all presidential elections since 2005.

This has created “systematic corruption which is likely to land the country in deep trouble,” Sarafraz insisted and said, that most of what the intelligence agencies and the IRGC do in Iran are illegal, but they can get away with it as no one is in control. Meanwhile, none of these organizations assume responsibility for the instability their actions create.

Sarafraz pointed out that "Government forces killed between 300 to 1,500 people in the 2019 protest. But no one accepted responsibility for even one of those cases.”

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"These individuals and institutions also control the state television and order it how to report events, how to get forced confessions from political prisoners and how to broadcast them. That is one of the reasons why society has no trust in the state-owned television. Not only they do not tell the truth, but they also fabricate fake news to present a different narrative," the former head of IRIB said.

"The same guys and their agents wanted to take over the TV by controlling its financial resources," said Sarafraz while claiming that there are Mossad and CIA agents among them. He explained: "I told IRGC Commander Hossein Salami that those individuals and institutions [IRGC Intelligence and Khamenei's office] first tried to control the state TV and then targeted the IRGC. I told him that they were discrediting the IRGC."

"If the CIA has planned this, we need to praise them," he said.

Abutorabi's statement may possibly signal some kind of diversity in the rhetoric of Friday Prayer Imams, who in calmer times repeat a centrally crafted message to believers attending sermons on Fridays.

He advised government officials to behave based on ethical standards, as systematic financial corruption has become a characteristic of the Iranian government and its officials in recent years.

Abutorabi added that the officials' commitment to ethical standards is the only way to restore the government's lost social capital. Abutorabi's comments are in sharp contrast to remarks by other Friday Prayer leaders who have called on officials to tighten control over the society.

To highlight the difference in messaging recently, the Friday Imam in Mashad, Ahmad Alamolhoda has accused Iranian women who protest against compulsory hijab of being linked to foreign networks and the outlawed Mojahedin-e Khalq (MeK) opposition group. The hardliner Ahmad Khatami in Tehran on the same day thanked the Iranian judiciary for its quick verdict in issuing the death sentence for the 23-year-old protester Mohsen Shekari who was executed in Tehran December 8.

Meanwhile, Abutorabi criticized the government for wasting the country's gas and oil resources and paving the way for smuggling fuel out of Iran.

In another development, Hossein Marashi, the leader of the centrist pro-reform Executives of Construction Party has told a local website that "We should not sacrifice the country for the sake of one individual," adding that "We should attach priority to the people."

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Most readers would have immediately assumed that he was speaking about the 83-year-old authoritarian ruler Ali Khamenei, but Marashi, probably realizing he might have gone too far, later underlined that he was referring to President Ebrahim Raisi, who is really not a major player amid the current crisis.

Speaking about the ongoing uprising in Iran, Marashi said: "This movement is fueled by the Islamic Republic's mistakes," adding that "We should not sacrifice the Islamic Republic for Raisi." He further explained that his party believes that "Current protests are the outcome of problems resulting from government officials' performance. Their performance has pushed the country to the point of explosion."

Marashi went on to say: "During the past five years, the county's usual 20% inflation rate increased to over 45% and at times to 60%. As far as foodstuffs are concerned, the inflation rate even reached 90%. The people are facing high inflation and high unemployment rates, and yet the government has not been doing anything about it."

He added: "Goods including medicine have become scarce and the people are angry and what the government did was ban social media and tighten compulsory hijab rules, which further angered the people. In foreign policy the government has been always creating tensions with the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia."

He suggested that Iran should settle its disputes with Saudi Arabia and replace Ali Bagheri with Abbas Araqchi to conclude the differences over the nuclear deal with the United States as quickly as possible. "For how long we should wait for Raisi to solve the problems?" He asked.

Marashi also criticized the use of violence against protesters, which has resulted in about 500 deaths among civilians.

Marashi argued that 75 percent of Iranians are unhappy with the government's performance but only 5 percent take to the street. The government still has a chance to end the crisis, as long as this difference exists.

The former chief of the Iranian parliament's foreign policy and national security committee Hesmatollah Falahatpished called Iran's subdued reaction to China's suggestion that Tehran should negotiate the ownership of three Persian Gulf islands with Abu Dhabi as humiliating.

Meanwhile, China's endorsement of the December 9 GCC statement appears to have torpedoed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's much-heralded policy pf “Looking East.”

In his interview with Didban Iran website, Falahatpisheh accused those in charge of Iran's foreign policy of having illusions about strategic ties with China. He was obliquely pointing at Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the architect of Iran's "Looking East" policy since 2018, that called for relying on China and Russia in defying the United States.

Earlier, Khamenei had called China "an independent and trustworthy" partner and had urged expanding Iran's ties with Beijing during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in January 2016.

Falahatp[isheh also recalled that that Russians have sacrificed Iranian forces in Syria by putting them in the frontline of the military campaign to keep Bashar Assad in power. He said: In a world where countries maintain relations based on mutual interests, we see that the number of Iran's enemies in the world are on the rise.

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The conservative politician said China's action has been a political shock because a partner signed on a statement undermining Iran's territorial integrity. Falahatpisheh suggested that Tehran should change its policy toward Beijing.

He also criticized Iranian officials for not officially summoning China's ambassador in Tehran. Foreign Ministry officials in Tehran said they had a "meeting" with Beijing's ambassador and told him that Iran is not pleased with what China did. This was so humiliating, Falahatpisheh said.

He reminded Iranian diplomats that China and Russia basically do not believe in strategic relations with a country like Iran, which is weak and isolated.

Meanwhile, in an interview with Rouydad24 website in Tehran, Mehdi Motaharnia, a lecturer on international relations, said Iran was counting on China, but China's behavior showed what matters for other countries is their national interest rather than fixated ideologies. He added: In politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies.

Motaharnia argued that China's behavior should not surprise anyone. What has surprised Iranians is that they were heavily under the influence of their government's propaganda about having a strategic alliance with China. But that propaganda based on wishful thinking was meant to strike a balance in foreign policy to fill the void after the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal.

While Iran continues its “permanent” confrontation with the United States, it wishes to pretend that it has big allies such as Russia and China that prevent its international isolation, Motaharnia said, adding that neither Russia nor China see Iran as a strategic partner. It is Iran that believes it can be a strategic market for those countries.

"This is wrong," said Motaharnia, adding that "It is Iran's wrong perception of international relations that agitates the public opinion in Iran. China is simply following its own interests in the region. So, it is looking for more stable countries to guarantee its profits. This is what pushes China toward Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia."

He added that "the tension resulting from the protests in Iran is also another factor that encourages China to reach out to Saudi Arabia, where it uses the term 'The Gulf' instead of Persian Gulf. Motaharnia charged that there is no realism in Iran's domestic and international policies and Tehran is paying the price for doing away with realism."