Iran Needs $80 Billion To Solve Natural Gas Shortage: Minister

Authorities argue that the stricter social media and internet restrictions are required due to what they call “riots” across the country over the past month. They blame protesters, who they invariably refer to as “rioters” for the perils of millions of people whose businesses, have been affected.

These small businesses, particularly those run from homes by women or small farms in rural areas, very heavily relied on Instagram for advertising and WhatsApp for communication with potential customers. The number of these businesses exponentially grew after the Covid pandemic.

Larger e-commerce companies such as online retailers, hotel and transportation bookings and food delivery services have lost large market shares.

The government has blocked access to Internet to prevent the spread of news and images about protests disrupt contact among protesters by blocking Instagram and WhatsApp. Last week they went one step further and even shut down the normal mobile messaging (SMS) services and resorted to jamming foreign-based Persian language satellite TV channels when activists called for one day of nationwide demonstrations.

These measure, many say, have largely failed as protesters persevere and post footage of protests as soon as they can connect to the internet through their mobiles or broadband.

“We have undergone the severest filtering and internet disruption over the past month but news [of the protests] have reached everyone, from the blaze at Evin Prison to the confiscation of passports of [dissident] artists,” one of the many tweets on this topic said.

“It just showed that government’s understanding of [the concepts of] media and cyberspace is very limited, and their measures have made no difference apart from damaging businesses. Moreover, Starlink is on the way too!” the tweet said.

Speaking at an event in Mazandaran Province in the north of Iran on the National E-Commerce Day on Sunday, Mahmoud Leiaei, deputy communications minister said during his visit to the province people had complained to him about the filtering of Instagram.

Leiaei added that their complaints made him realize that even in rural areas people had depended on Instagram for selling their produce. He blamed these people whose businesses are suffering because, he said, they should have heeded authorities’ warnings and migrated from foreign social media and messaging platforms to those developed in Iran.

Social media users in Iran have largely shunned domestically developed social media platforms and applications such as Wisgoon and Nazdika, designed to replace Instagram, and Rubika, a messaging application. People know that security services control the domestic apps and can spy on them.

Experts also warn that these platforms are very vulnerable to censorship and there are serious safety and privacy concerns.

For years, many in Iran have relied on VPNs and anti-filtering software to navigate through government censorship and blocked social media and websites. But authorities have been regularly shutting down mobile internet which completely stops any kind of access. The use of VPNs surged by 30-fold following the recent nationwide protests.

All Iranian mobile carriers now only offer their internet services when permitted by authorities who are imposing a curfew style control. Access to mobile internet is much more important than broadband which only 10 percent of Iranians subscribe to. The government has also cut off access to the global web and limited online activities to those allowed by a very heavily controlled intranet, called the National Information Network (NIN).

The US also agrees with British and French assessments that Iran supplying drones to Russia would violate a UN Security Council resolution that endorsed the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six powers, State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said.

"Earlier today our French and British allies publicly offered the assessment that Iran’s supply of these UAVs (for) Russia is a violation of UN Security Council resolution 2231," Patel told reporters, referring to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones. "This is something that we agree with."

Ukraine has reported a spate of Russian attacks using Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in recent weeks. Iran denies supplying the drones to Russia, while the Kremlin has not commented.

The State Department assessed that Iranian drones were used on Monday in a morning rush hour attack on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, an official said. White House spokesperson Karinne Jean-Pierre also accused Tehran of lying when it says Iranian drones are not being used by Russia in Ukraine.

Resolution 2231 endorsed the deal between Iran and Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States that limited Tehran's uranium enrichment activity, making it harder for Iran to develop nuclear arms while lifting international sanctions.

Under the resolution, a conventional arms embargo on Iran was in place until October 2020. Despite US efforts under former president Donald Trump, who took the United States out of the deal in 2018, to extend the arms embargo, the Security Council rejected this, paving the way for Iran to resume arms exports.

However, Western diplomats said the resolution still includes restrictions on missiles and related technologies that last until October 2023 and that encompass the export and purchase of advanced military systems such as drones.

European are still not sure if they would impose sanctions on Iran for the drone transfers. Arriving in Luxemburg Monday for a meeting of EU foreign ministers, Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, said Europe would look for “concrete evidence” over reports that Russia had used Shahed-136 drones in recent weeks.

But the United States is certain Russia is using Iranian drones. "It is our belief that these UAVs that are transferred from Iran to Russia and used by Russia in Ukraine are among the weapons that would remain embargoed under 2231," Patel said.

The Washington Post Sunday also cited “an intelligence assessment shared in recent days with Ukrainian and US officials [that] contends Iran’s armaments industry is preparing a first shipment of [surface-to-surface] Fateh-110 and Zolfagher missiles…”

The Biden Administration and its European allies, France, Germany and the United Kingdom that unsuccessfully negotiated for nearly 18 months with Iran to revive an Obama-era nuclear deal, the JCPOA, seem to realize that ignoring Tehran’s actions will not help soften its stance in reaching a deal.

Recent popular protests have also cast a further shadow on the attitude of Western countries toward the clerical regime in Iran. Government security forces have killed nearly 250 people including many children since mid-September after the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman, at the hands of the ‘hijab police’.

The European Council, the institution that defines the general political direction and priorities of the European Union, added on Monday 11 individuals and four entities to the EU list of those subjected to restrictive measures in the context of the existing Iran human rights sanctions regime, a statement released Monday said. The EU list now comprises a total of 97 individuals and eight Iranian entities.

"The EU and its member states condemn the widespread and disproportionate use of force against peaceful protestors. This is unjustifiable and unacceptable. People in Iran, as anywhere else, have the right to peacefully protest and this right must be ensured in all circumstances," the statement read.

The latest measures consist of a travel ban and an asset freeze, in addition to prohibiting EU citizens and companies from making funds available to the listed individuals and entities.

The sanctions also include a ban on exports to Iran of equipment which might be used for the repression of protests and of equipment for monitoring telecommunications and surveillance.

"The EU expects Iran to immediately stop the violent crackdown against peaceful protesters, to free those detained, and to ensure the free flow of information, including internet access. Furthermore, the EU expects Iran to clarify the number of deaths and arrested," the EU said.

The new designations include Iran’s so-called ‘Morality Police’ and two of its key figures, Mohammad Rostami and Haj-Ahmad Mirzaei. In addition, the EU has designated Iran's police, known as the Law Enforcement Forces, as well as several of its local chiefs for their role in the crackdown on the protests.

The EU has also sanctioned the minister of information and communications technology, Issa Zarepour, for shutting down the internet to restrict access to information on the protests and impede communication among protesters.

Announcing “unanimous” decision to take action against those “responsible for the death of Mahsa Amini and violent repression of peaceful protests” in a tweet Monday, the EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell stressed that the EU will always act against serious human rights violations.

Borrel also said on Monday that he currently did not expect progress in negotiations over reviving the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. "I don't expect any move, that's a pity because we were very, very close," he said.

Iran-European Union relations have soured with claims Tehran has supplied Russia with armed drones used in Ukraine, although the EU is not yet expected to agree new sanctions.

Arriving in Luxemburg Monday for a meeting of EU foreign ministers, Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, said Europe would look for “concrete evidence” over reports that Russia had used Shahed-136 drones in recent weeks. The Washington Post backed up Ukrainian claims Sunday citing US and “allied” officials speaking anonymously.

The Washington Post cited “an intelligence assessment shared in recent days with Ukrainian and US officials [that] contends Iran’s armaments industry is preparing a first shipment of [surface-to-surface] Fateh-110 and Zolfagher missiles…” Reuters reported Monday its reporter had seen pieces of a drone bearing the words ‘For Belgorod,’ presumably referring to Saturday’s gunning down of 11 Russian trainee soldiers 40km north of the Ukraine border.

There have been differences within the 27-member EU over the Russia-Ukraine conflict over the extent of sanctions against Moscow, which continues to supply gas and oil to many European states. Denmark’s Foreign Minister, the Social Democrat Jeppe Kofod, called Monday for the EU to take “concrete steps” in response to Russian attacks on Kyiv Monday morning, with Reuters reporting at least three deaths. “Iranian drones are used apparently to attack in the middle of Kyiv, this is an atrocity,” Kofod said.

France has argued that Iran supplying drones to Russia would violate United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. Paris bases its case on the non-binding, informal Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) agreed by 35 states including Russia.

As signatories to the JCPOA, both France and Germany have been involved in the talks aimed at reviving the agreement, which the US left in 2018 prompting Iran to expand its nuclear program beyond JCPOA limits. The leeway for new European sanctions has been reduced by decline of Europe-Iran trade given European companies’ fear of US action against them under the ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions Washington introduced on leaving the JCPOA. Nonetheless, Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn Monday it was “no longer” enough just to extended the existing list of sanctioned Iranian individuals.

Iran denies supplying weapons to Russia. Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Saturday – in comments made by telephone to Portuguese foreign minister Joao Gomes Cravinho – that Tehran believed “the arming of each side of the crisis will prolong the war.” The US has sent Ukraine $16.8 billion in aid, mainly in weapons, and the EU $2.5 billion, although Washington is denying Ukraine more advanced weapons so as to avoid escalation. Washington has said it wants to degrade Russian capacity as its stocks of Cruise and other missiles diminish.

‘Inconsistent behavior’

Comments made Monday by Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani reflected a deteriorating tone in EU-Iran relations. Kanaani highlighted what he said was “inconsistent behavior” by the French in suggesting there was “good and bad terrorism” and in condemning “disturbances” and “labor strikes” in France but welcoming them in Iran.

Kanaani portrayed Iran as an “anchor of stability” in a region where many countries – he cited Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria – “fell into chaos and were exposed to terrorism and foreign attacks.” The spokesman said that an arson attack on an Iranian school in Hamburg Thursday showed a failure to provide security for “Iranian diplomatic places.” He said there was a “bitter irony that the countries that export millions of dollars of arms to one side of the war [had] started a propaganda war against Iran.”

Kanaani stressed that while new EU sanctions would lead to “reciprocal reactions” from Iran, “the path of negotiations” was separate. The EU has coordinated efforts to revive the 2015 agreement, both in meetings April 2021-March 2022 in Vienna of all JCPAO signatories (China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia, the United Kingdom, with the United States taking part indirectly) and in subsequent bilateral contacts between Iran and the US. Kanaani also said Monday a prisoner exchange with the US was being held up by Washington’s insistence that the 2015 agreement be revived first.

Fararu, which is a pro-reform website, interviewed Iranian economist Vahid Shaqaqi Shahri who said if the regime fails to clinch an agreement with the West over its controversial nuclear program and revive the JCPOA, the country may experience higher inflation that might bring its economic growth to zero in 2023.

Shaqaqi told Fararu that while Iran’s neighbors including Turkey and Saudi Arabia have experienced double-digit growths in the past few years, the economy of the Islamic Republic has shrunk in the face of sanctions and skyrocketing inflation.

Iran’s economy is almost completely state-run and the decision-makers in the country show no flexibility or interest in reform even though many warn the system needs drastic changes. The average annual inflation in the sixth months of the current Iranian year reached 42.1%, the Statistical Center of Iran announced in a report in September.

As the streets of many cities have turned into scenes of antigovernment protests since mid-September in the latest wave of anger at the totalitarian approach of the clerical regime towards cultural, political, and economic issues, there seems to be no glimpse of hope for any reforms by the authorities.

The people who are currently venting anger against the Islamic Republic in the streets and demand regime change are fed up with economic pressure and see a gloomy future for themselves; however, the government keeps cracking down, showing no interest in reforms.

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In his Saturday interview with the Fararu news website, Shaqaqi said that the Iranian “economy has no more capacity to tumble down further.”

This university professor also referred to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which has forecast high energy and food prices and tougher economic conditions in 2023, warning that without “economic reforms, empowering the private sector, development of non-oil exports, and increase in investments,” Iran might see a more crippled economy next year.

Earlier this week, the IMF reported that with “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook, global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023.”

This Iranian expert further noted that there are two more possible scenarios for the Iranian economy next year. “The optimistic scenario is that the JCPOA will be revived, and with the removal of the sanctions, the inflation rate will decrease to 20 percent and an economic growth of five percent could be achieved.”

With a slight increase in oil sales, Iran's economy has gained about 40 billion dollars from non-oil exports and imported a total worth of 45 billion dollarsin goods, Shaqaqi said, adding that the country has achieved economic growth of two to three percent, as predicted by the International Monetary Fund. However, he said, “if the conditions remain the same and sanctions are not increased,” one or two percent economic growth along with a 40 percent inflation can also be seen for Iran in 2023.

Iran’s economy is mostly influenced by political power. The government believes that in case of losing control over the economy, it will lose political authority.

A notable example is the Revolutionary Guard that plays a very significant role in the economy by monopolistic practices. Several cases of corruption and mega-size embezzlements have diminished popular trust in the regime.