Iran Is Main Problem Of Middle East – Israeli Security Chief

Lapid has argued that his tactful approach to France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Biden administration has been more productive than the assertive stance of his rival Benjamin Netanyahu, as the two men lead their respective political blocs towards Israel’s November 1 parliamentary election.

“Yesterday the E3 countries announced that a nuclear agreement with Iran will not be signed in the near future, that the IAEA’s open files regarding Iran are not about to be closed,” Lapid said Sunday. “Israel is conducting a successful diplomatic campaign to stop the nuclear agreement and prevent the lifting of sanctions on Iran.”

However, what pushed the Europeans to say that there are “no active negotiations” was Iran’s latest response to a European Union draft agreement submitted to Tehran and Washington on August 8. Iran’s response was called “non-constructive” by the Biden administration and seen by the E3 as a sign of lack of willingness to make a deal by Tehran.

If Iran’s response was different after 17 months of talks, the Biden administration had already agreed to the EU draft and the optimism prevailing in August would have been justified.

Iran insists that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) drop an enquiry into uranium traces found in sites linked to Tehran’s nuclear work before 2003. It also demands various sorts of guarantees from the US.

Time for ‘new agreement’

A “senior Israeli official” told journalists Sunday that the time had come to look for a “new agreement,” leading some Israeli media to proclaim the JCPOA dead. Unless the IAEA, Iran and the US together with the E3 change their minds, “there won't be any choice” but to abandon the 2015 deal, the Israeli official reportedly said.

Lapid said the aim of his trip to Germany was to coordinate “positions on the nuclear issue” and that he would be “finalizing the details of the strategic, economic, and security cooperation document we are going to sign.”

Lapid also stressed Israel was “working to prevent Iran from establishing terrorist bases throughout the Middle East and especially in Syria.” Israel regards Lebanon’s Hezbollah, a close Iranian ally, as well as most Palestinian groups as ‘terrorist.’ Lapid said there was a “growing terror threat in the West Bank,” according to the Jerusalem Post.

Consulting partners

The E3, apparently short of declaring the JCPOA talks dead as Lapid suggested, said it would “consult, alongside international partners” on how best to proceed, both over the continued expansion in Iran’s nuclear program and its failure to satisfy the IAEA over the uranium traces.

In Iran, some argue Europe’s attitude towards the talks may change as winter brings energy shortages due to sanctions on Russian energy exports and European leaders eye Iran’s 90 million barrels of oil in storage, which would be released with US sanctions eased should the JCPOA be restored.

Ali Akbar Salehi, who was head of the Atomic Energy Agency of Iran (AEOI) when the JCPOA was signed in 2015, defended the agreement this week against critics by arguing it had not fundamentally stymied Iran’s technological progress. Hence, Salehi argued, the AEOI had been quickly able to expand the program once parliament, in the wake of the November 2020 had passed legislation requiring a higher level of uranium enrichment and employing more advanced centrifuges.

Albania’s interior ministry said Saturday that the latest hack, which occurred on Friday forced Albanian officials to temporarily take offline its Total Information Management System (TIMS), a system for tracking the data of those entering and leaving the country.

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama said on twitter the cyberattack was carried out by the “same aggressors” behind the July hack, that disrupted Albanian government services. 

On Sunday, Washington condemned the recent attack against its NATO ally, saying, “The US government is supporting Albania’s efforts to mitigate and recover.”

The United States Treasury Department Friday sanctioned Iran’s intelligence ministry for “cyber operations” against the US and allies, a day after White House and NATO allies condemned the attack. 

The attack happened around the time of a conference of the exiled Iranian Albania-based opposition group Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK). In early August, cybersecurity firm Mandiant expressed “moderate confidence” the attackers were acting in support of Tehran’s efforts to disrupt the MEK conference, which had to be cancelled as well due to a terror threat.

Iran’s foreign ministry Thursday rejected accusations about the alleged cyberattack. Relations between Tehran and Tirana have been tense since 2014, when Albania accepted some 3,000 members of the MEK.

Tehran alleged Saturday that the US has trained and equipped MEK for “cyberattacks and psychological warfare” against Iran.

According to videos posted on social media police tried to disperse the protesters, who were insisting on keeping the continuing their vigil. 

The protesters were carrying placards with the slogans "Don't execute" and "No to execution."

There is no confirmed report of the number of detainees yet, but social media photos and videos show that there were children among the arrested people. 

The families of prisoners sentenced to death have been holding demonstrations in front of the Revolutionary Court in the city of Karaj and the judiciary in Tehran for the past week, demanding a halt to the execution of their family members and relatives. 

Regular protest rallies with various demands have been held in Iran in recent years, but the gathering of families of prisoners sentenced to death is a rare event.

Late in July, two human rights organizations said Iran has embarked on an execution spree at a “horrifying pace” with at least 251 hangings between January 1 and June 30, 2022. 

Amnesty International and the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran said in a report that the actual number is likely higher, as authorities keep secret figures on death sentences passed and executed.

On June 16, UN Secretary General António Guterres released a report on the situation of human rights in Iran, decrying “the high number of death penalty sentences and executions.” The UN chief said that the number of executions in Iran increased from at least 260 cases in 2020 to 310 individuals in 2021, and the number continued to rise into 2022.

The head of the Iranian Association of Exporters of Technical and Engineering Services, Bahman Salehi-Javid, said on Sunday that the exports reached $5billion dollars in 2010 and was projected to reach $35 billion dollars, but "today it has decreased to $500 million.”

He added that the Islamic Republic invested heavily in Syria’s financial, engineering, and military sectors but "did not manage to participate in the projects of this country as much as it had invested,” leading to losses by many Iranian contracting companies in the country. 

Salehi-Javid also said there is a $800-million debt to Iranian companies for different projects in Iraq. 

In the last two years, numerous reports have been published about Iran's losses and debts in Syria and Iraq, where Iran tried to expand its political and military presence by offering free or cheap services and goods. 

Earlier in September, the head of the Trade Promotion Organization of Iran, Alireza Payman-Pak, said that export of technical and engineering services in the current Iranian year (which started on March 21) registered a 31-percent growth as compared to the same period of last year without providing any figures for his claim.

In January, the head of Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Masoud Khansari, said Iran’s export of technical and engineering services has plummeted to about $200 to $300 million from about $5 to $6 billion in the past few years.

The issue of possible fraud or some sort of corruption is not straightforward as one might expect in a typical Western company. There are Iranian nuances in the case that makes it a bit different.

Mehr Petrochemicals produces the highest-grade polyethylene in the Middle East but it stands at the verge of bankruptcy, according to Eghtesad Online (Economy Online) a recognized website in Iran reporting on economic issue.

The firm belongs to Persian Gulf Holding, a large Iranian quasi-governmental company that claims to be an independent entity, with 15 subsidiaries.

Mehr Petrochemicals, as an Iranian company is supposed to repatriate its foreign currency earnings according to law, as it exports products and receives government dollars at preferential rates when it for importing equipment or chemicals. The problem is that it has failed to bring back $170 million to the country and apparently the money has simply vanished.

The Iranian Inspector General’s office has issued a report saying that Mehr owes close to $100 million locally and its export revenues are missing.

The danger in the company going bankrupt and shutting down is loss of gas output in the South Pars fields in the Persian Gulf, Iranian media say. Mehr plays a role in gas production because it needs it for producing petrochemicals.

In the middle of the scandal stands a mysterious and unnamed foreign investor, reportedly a firm registered in Italy. The story goes back seventeen years, when Mehr Petrochemicals was established with a 60-percent foreign stake by a Japanese-Thai consortium, with some management rights over the company.

In 2018, in the wake of renewed economic sanctions by the United States, the foreign investor decided to divest of its stake in the company. It offered to sell its share to the Persian Gulf Holding for a certain price, which has not been disclosed. Iran appointed a commission to assess the value of the asset and it came back with a very low estimate that the foreign stakeholder refused.

At this point, the mysterious Italian company entered the picture and offered enough money to the Japanese-Thai consortium to buy their shares.

The whole affair of not buying the consortium’s shares and then agreeing to an Italian company, that according to Iranian media had no track record in the petrochemicals business, to buy 60 percent of Mehr is all shrouded in mystery and lack of transparency. This is common in Iran’s sprawling public and quasi-public sector that controls 80 percent of the economy.

Political and economic interests and spheres of influence are often so closely intertwined that it is impossible for the media and even members of parliament to demand and receive transparency.

The so-called Italian investor could well be a group of well-connected government and military officials who simply offered a very low price to the original foreign investor who bulked, and then set up a front company abroad and bought the 60-percent share themselves.

With Iran short of natural gas, local media warn of a worse situation this winter if Mehr Petrochemicals stops operations. There is already ongoing labor strikes and protests as many other petrochemical and oil outfits linked to the government delay salaries.