Iran Says IAEA Access Stays Limited Unless Nuclear Deal Revived

In a tweet on Sunday, the Israeli Foreign Ministry said that “a nuclear Iran is not a threat only to Israel, but to the entire region and the world.” 

Echoing remarks by the head of the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, the ministry said, "Today what we have is a nuclear program that has grown enormously....” and a country that does not seek nuclear weapons would not enrich uranium to 60 percent.

On July 22, Grossi told Spain's El Pais newspaper that the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program is "galloping ahead" and the IAEA has very limited visibility on what is happening. 

In 2019, Iran began breaching restrictions on its nuclear program following the 2018's pullout of the United States from the 2015 deal, the JCPOA, or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The process accelerated after President Joe Biden’s administration signaled it was ready to return to the JCPOA.

“If there is an agreement, it is going to be very difficult for me to reconstruct the puzzle of this whole period of forced blindness,” Grossi said. “It is not impossible, but it is going to require a very complex task and perhaps some specific agreements.”

Iran would like to see a nuclear agreement taking shape soon, but it will not act with emotion and haste, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Naser Kanaani said Monday.

Meanwhile, the head of the country's Atomic Energy Organisation, Mohammad Eslami said on Monday that Iran will keep the UN nuclear watchdog's cameras turned off until a 2015 nuclear deal is restored, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.

In a media briefing, Kanaani emphasized Tehran’s often repeated slogan that it will not hinge the future of the economy and people’s well-being on the nuclear issue.

The hardliner government of President Ebrahim Raisi and its supporters, who are loyal to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, argue that they can manage the country despite American sanctions, and a nuclear agreement is not absolutely necessary to deal with economic challenges.

However, as annual inflation approaches 60 percent and food price inflation is close to 90 percent, critics argue that a deal to restore the 2015 nuclear agreement, the JCPOA, is a prerequisite. Without lifting sanctions imposed by the United States and boosting oil exports and trade, the government simply has little money to deal with the economic crisis.

The United States imposed oil export and banking sanction in 2018 when former President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, demanding a stronger agreement. The move drastically weakened Iran's economy, which is heavily dependent on oil revenues.

The Raisi administration’s claim of dealing with challenges despite sanctions is a public posture to show the West that it is not desperate for a deal. On the domestic front, few believe that the situation will improve as they see that real food prices have doubled and tripled since the beginning of May.

But since the Biden administration took office, Iran has been able to increase its oil exports, mainly to China and many believe it is pinning hope on the additional income to weather out the storm and continue expanding the nuclear program.

Kanaani, however, did not dash hopes for an agreement saying that discussions do take place through “communication channels.”

A local news agency asked the spokesman about a recent statement by the head of the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, who said he had “very limited visibility,” of Iran’s nuclear program. He also said that only a country with military intentions would enrich uranium to 60-percent purity.

Kanaani responded with defiance. “We call upon him to refrain from politically motivated statements,” he said, and added that Grossi's remarks were "unprofessional, unfair and unconstructive views."

Iran began restricting IAEA’s monitoring access in early 2021, as the incoming administration of President Joe Biden signaled its readiness to return to the JCPOA and lift sanctions. Tehran announced more restriction after the IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution on June 8 to censure Iran for lack of cooperation in its investigations.

Grossi told the Spanish newspaper El Pais June 22 that his agency’s ability to monitor Iran’s nuclear activities had substantially decreased as Tehran’s nuclear program is “galloping ahead.”

According to a Sunday report by Nour News, a website affiliated with the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Ali Shamkhani, “These individuals (Mossad-linked agents) had identified a sensitive center in Esfahan, planted strong explosives there, and only a few hours were left until the explosion” when they were arrested.

The report added that the members of the network were trained in an African country for months and had simulated the planned operation several times.

It claimed that Iran’s security forces were monitoring the team even before it arrived in Iran and all its members and contacts both inside and outside the country were identified by the Intelligence Ministry several months before they entered the country.

The report did not disclose the name of the site, but Esfahan is home to Iran’s largest multi-purpose nuclear research complex with about 3,000 scientists. It also operates a conversion facility, a fuel production plant, a zirconium cladding plant, and four small nuclear research reactors -- all supplied by China – as well as other facilities and laboratories. Moreover, it could also mean the all-important Natanz uranium enrichment facility, which is located in the province of Esfahan.

Natanz was the target of two major sabotage acts in the past two years- in July 2020 and April 2021, both ascribed to Israeli intelligence.

In January, Iran told the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it would move production of crucial nuclear components from a plant in Karaj to a facility in Esfahan. The Karaj TESA plant was producing parts for uranium enrichment machines or centrifuges.

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In April, Tehran said that before the 2015 nuclear deal is revived it will not give the IAEA access to data from cameras at the new centrifuge parts plant in Esfahan.

In a short announcement from the Intelligence Ministry on Saturday, July 23, Iran claimed that “a network from the spy agency of the Zionist regime who were sent to the country for terrorist operations” were identified and arrested.

"This network's members were in contact with (Israel's) Mossad spy agency through a neighboring country and entered Iran from (Iraq's) Kurdistan region with advanced equipment and strong explosives," the ministry said.

Since March, Iran has at least three times made similar claims without presenting any evidence or information about what investigators discovered from the persons allegedly detained.

The intelligence ministry’s announcement came two days after Iran International in an exclusive report on July 21 said that Israel’s Mossad had captured a senior Revolutionary Guard official on Iranian soil and interrogated him about weapons shipments to Iran’s proxies in the region. After the interrogation the man was released.

Since mid-2020 a series of high-profile mysterious attacks have hit Iran’s nuclear and military installations around the country, widely believed to have been Israeli sabotage operations. In November 2020, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a key figure in Iran’s controversial nuclear program was assassinated in a complex operation on the outskirts of Tehran. His killing resembled more a Hollywood thriller, with a heavy, remotely controlled gun mounted in the back of a pickup truck that fired on Fakhrizadeh’s car on a highway.

In May, several IRGC officials were killed or died in suspicious circumstances, prompting Tehran to blame Israel, which has never officially taken credit for these operations.

In June, a major reshuffling of IRGC intelligence and counter-intelligence leadership took place, widely attributed to reported Israeli infiltration and the inability of Iran’s security bodies to deal with the situation.

Macron expressed his disappointment to his Iranian counterpart Raisi at the lack of progress over talks on the 2015 nuclear agreement, the Elysee Palace said in a statement.

In June, Iran began removing essentially all the monitoring equipment of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), installed under its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

Iran has been enriching uranium at 20 and 60 percent since early 2021, raising alarm in Western capitals and among regional countries of getting closer to a nuclear breakout point.

The French leader urged Raisi to make a "clear choice" to reach a deal and go back to the implementation of Iran's commitments under the 2015 nuclear agreement, the Elysee Palace said.

Macron said he was convinced that such an outcome was still possible but that it should take place "as soon as possible," the French presidency said.

According to the official Iranian news agency IRNA, Raisi reiterated Iran's demands of receiving guarantees of full economic benefits to make a nuclear deal possible.

Macron also urged the liberation of four French citizens that he said were "held arbitrarily" in Iran.

Tasnim ridiculed Western diplomats and governments for repeatedly threatening that “just a few weeks” remain for concluding a deal to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, the JCPOA, or they will walk away from negotiations.

“Setting deadlines has been one of the main tactics used by Westerners” in nuclear talks, Tasnim said, “but they used it so often that today it has turned into an empty threat.”

Tasnim went on to cite the first time the United States mentioned a deadline in December 2021, when National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that Washington and others have not publicly put a date on the calendar “but behind closed doors, there is a deadline, and it is not far away.” He added that in the coming weeks, participants in the Vienna talks will find out "whether Iran is ready for the diplomatic solution."

After six weeks, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on February 2 that time “is very, very short” to restore the JCPOA, arguing that once Iran reaches “the point where its nuclear advances have obviated the non-proliferation benefits” of the JCPOA, “that’s a point at which it will no longer make sense, from our national security interests.”

Then on February 9, CNN quoted US officials as saying that there were three weeks left to reaching an agreement.

“The Biden administration believes it has until the end of February to salvage the Iran nuclear agreement, otherwise the US will have to change tack and launch aggressive efforts to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, according to three administration officials,” the network reported.

As February ended with no results, and after 11 months of talks in Vienna, negotiations came to a halt in early March, Western governments continued to say that a “few weeks” remain for a deal to be concluded, as Iran carried on with its uranium enrichment at 60 percent.

In July, the US has been refusing to mention a deadline anymore, saying that the time to conclude that negotiations have failed is when it is technically determined Iran’s nuclear program has passed the point when a restoration of JCPOA would make sense.

US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland told the Aspen Security Forum on July 22 that "The deal is sitting there on the table for the taking if the Iranians want it," but she admitted that Iranian officials "haven’t chosen to go that route."

Highlighting the benefits of an agreement for Iran, Nuland said,"It would get their oil back on the market, it would get them some relief from some of the sanctions that have come on. But, so far, they haven't chosen to go in that route.”

"The Iranian people pay the price as their prices go up and inflation goes up," Nuland added. "If (the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei) doesn’t take the deal, we’re going to have to increase pressure, of course."

The Tasnim article questioned the logic of setting deadlines when Western powers still say they want to pursue diplomacy to restore the JCPOA. It highlighted that “even a Jewish thin-tank recently said, ‘the nuclear talks apparently will never end’,” without naming the group.