Iran Says No Haste In Nuclear Talks Although Hopes For A Deal

According to a Sunday report by Nour News, a website affiliated with the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Ali Shamkhani, “These individuals (Mossad-linked agents) had identified a sensitive center in Esfahan, planted strong explosives there, and only a few hours were left until the explosion” when they were arrested.

The report added that the members of the network were trained in an African country for months and had simulated the planned operation several times.

It claimed that Iran’s security forces were monitoring the team even before it arrived in Iran and all its members and contacts both inside and outside the country were identified by the Intelligence Ministry several months before they entered the country.

The report did not disclose the name of the site, but Esfahan is home to Iran’s largest multi-purpose nuclear research complex with about 3,000 scientists. It also operates a conversion facility, a fuel production plant, a zirconium cladding plant, and four small nuclear research reactors -- all supplied by China – as well as other facilities and laboratories. Moreover, it could also mean the all-important Natanz uranium enrichment facility, which is located in the province of Esfahan.

Natanz was the target of two major sabotage acts in the past two years- in July 2020 and April 2021, both ascribed to Israeli intelligence.

In January, Iran told the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it would move production of crucial nuclear components from a plant in Karaj to a facility in Esfahan. The Karaj TESA plant was producing parts for uranium enrichment machines or centrifuges.

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In April, Tehran said that before the 2015 nuclear deal is revived it will not give the IAEA access to data from cameras at the new centrifuge parts plant in Esfahan.

In a short announcement from the Intelligence Ministry on Saturday, July 23, Iran claimed that “a network from the spy agency of the Zionist regime who were sent to the country for terrorist operations” were identified and arrested.

"This network's members were in contact with (Israel's) Mossad spy agency through a neighboring country and entered Iran from (Iraq's) Kurdistan region with advanced equipment and strong explosives," the ministry said.

Since March, Iran has at least three times made similar claims without presenting any evidence or information about what investigators discovered from the persons allegedly detained.

The intelligence ministry’s announcement came two days after Iran International in an exclusive report on July 21 said that Israel’s Mossad had captured a senior Revolutionary Guard official on Iranian soil and interrogated him about weapons shipments to Iran’s proxies in the region. After the interrogation the man was released.

Since mid-2020 a series of high-profile mysterious attacks have hit Iran’s nuclear and military installations around the country, widely believed to have been Israeli sabotage operations. In November 2020, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a key figure in Iran’s controversial nuclear program was assassinated in a complex operation on the outskirts of Tehran. His killing resembled more a Hollywood thriller, with a heavy, remotely controlled gun mounted in the back of a pickup truck that fired on Fakhrizadeh’s car on a highway.

In May, several IRGC officials were killed or died in suspicious circumstances, prompting Tehran to blame Israel, which has never officially taken credit for these operations.

In June, a major reshuffling of IRGC intelligence and counter-intelligence leadership took place, widely attributed to reported Israeli infiltration and the inability of Iran’s security bodies to deal with the situation.

Macron expressed his disappointment to his Iranian counterpart Raisi at the lack of progress over talks on the 2015 nuclear agreement, the Elysee Palace said in a statement.

In June, Iran began removing essentially all the monitoring equipment of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), installed under its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

Iran has been enriching uranium at 20 and 60 percent since early 2021, raising alarm in Western capitals and among regional countries of getting closer to a nuclear breakout point.

The French leader urged Raisi to make a "clear choice" to reach a deal and go back to the implementation of Iran's commitments under the 2015 nuclear agreement, the Elysee Palace said.

Macron said he was convinced that such an outcome was still possible but that it should take place "as soon as possible," the French presidency said.

According to the official Iranian news agency IRNA, Raisi reiterated Iran's demands of receiving guarantees of full economic benefits to make a nuclear deal possible.

Macron also urged the liberation of four French citizens that he said were "held arbitrarily" in Iran.

Tasnim ridiculed Western diplomats and governments for repeatedly threatening that “just a few weeks” remain for concluding a deal to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, the JCPOA, or they will walk away from negotiations.

“Setting deadlines has been one of the main tactics used by Westerners” in nuclear talks, Tasnim said, “but they used it so often that today it has turned into an empty threat.”

Tasnim went on to cite the first time the United States mentioned a deadline in December 2021, when National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that Washington and others have not publicly put a date on the calendar “but behind closed doors, there is a deadline, and it is not far away.” He added that in the coming weeks, participants in the Vienna talks will find out "whether Iran is ready for the diplomatic solution."

After six weeks, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on February 2 that time “is very, very short” to restore the JCPOA, arguing that once Iran reaches “the point where its nuclear advances have obviated the non-proliferation benefits” of the JCPOA, “that’s a point at which it will no longer make sense, from our national security interests.”

Then on February 9, CNN quoted US officials as saying that there were three weeks left to reaching an agreement.

“The Biden administration believes it has until the end of February to salvage the Iran nuclear agreement, otherwise the US will have to change tack and launch aggressive efforts to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, according to three administration officials,” the network reported.

As February ended with no results, and after 11 months of talks in Vienna, negotiations came to a halt in early March, Western governments continued to say that a “few weeks” remain for a deal to be concluded, as Iran carried on with its uranium enrichment at 60 percent.

In July, the US has been refusing to mention a deadline anymore, saying that the time to conclude that negotiations have failed is when it is technically determined Iran’s nuclear program has passed the point when a restoration of JCPOA would make sense.

US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland told the Aspen Security Forum on July 22 that "The deal is sitting there on the table for the taking if the Iranians want it," but she admitted that Iranian officials "haven’t chosen to go that route."

Highlighting the benefits of an agreement for Iran, Nuland said,"It would get their oil back on the market, it would get them some relief from some of the sanctions that have come on. But, so far, they haven't chosen to go in that route.”

"The Iranian people pay the price as their prices go up and inflation goes up," Nuland added. "If (the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei) doesn’t take the deal, we’re going to have to increase pressure, of course."

The Tasnim article questioned the logic of setting deadlines when Western powers still say they want to pursue diplomacy to restore the JCPOA. It highlighted that “even a Jewish thin-tank recently said, ‘the nuclear talks apparently will never end’,” without naming the group.

Norman Roule, advisor at the advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran and a former officer in the Central Intelligence Agency, and Mohammad Al Sulami, President of the Riyadh-based International Institute for Iranian Studies, both argued that the US should tighten implementation of existing sanctions.

Both asserted that Iran is now selling 1.3 million barrels of oil daily, despite US ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions that threaten punitive action against any third party buying Iranian crude or dealing with its central bank.

With the 2015 nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) dead, Roule argued, Beijing was benefiting unduly from its political and military neutrality.

“China, is part of the problem…Iran sells about 1.3 million barrels of oil a day and much of this goes to China,” Roule said. “The money that does make it back from those sales…is funding the missile industry [in Iran] and is funding the militia industry – not in its entirety, but it’s part of the general budget that funds those two organizations. If a missile lands in Saudi Arabia, it’s not unreasonable to think that some Chinese money has enabled that missile to be given to the Houthis [Ansar Allah, Yemenis].”

Integrated approach

Sulami claimed there was no support in the region for “returning to the JCPOA as it is,” and pointed to recent public disagreement between visiting US President Joe Biden, who says he is committed to talks aimed at reviving the JCPOA, and Israel prime minister Yair Lapid.

While Sulami wanted existing sanctions enforced – presumably by US action against Chinese buyers – he ruled out more sanctions.

A different, integrated approach was needed, he argued. “For the United States, the nuclear issue is the priority. For Europe, the missile program [of Iran] is important… these countries are within reach of Iranian missiles. For regional counties these two files…have to be dealt with, but the threat we are experiencing …is the Iranian behavior in the region, the proxies, the militias, the Houthis, Iraq, Syria and other places. That is the main, immediate threat.”

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Sulami conceded that comprehensive talks with Iran over all such matters could take two to three years. “Of course, we support reaching an agreement…we want a very good relationship with Iran. The [Saudi] Crown Prince [Mohammad bin Salman] has said this more than once … Plan B should be to bring Iran back to the table of negotiation with hope …this will be a win-win situation for everybody.”

‘Enough is enough’

Sulami cautioned against military confrontation. “Nobody is supportive of that, specifically regional countries – nobody wants more wars in the region – enough is enough.” He added that “tit-for-tat” conflict – presumably meaning low-key engagement – had “benefit for Iran and gets more support for the political system inside the country.”

It was also important, Sulami noted, for Arab leaders to continue to “normalize” with the “Syrian regime,” bringing it back after “reforms” into the Arab League and so prevent Iran “spreading the ideology, spreading Shi’ism, spreading drugs through the IRGC [Revolutionary Guards].”

Among other recent advocates of a ‘plan B,’ historian John Ghazvinian argued in the Los Angeles Times that the JCPOA was a “roadblock” that should be replaced by “broader, deeper and more comprehensive negotiations with Iran.”

The British ambassador to Iran Simon Shercliff in a tweet Friday, after visiting companies in Shiraz, called on British firms to boost trade “JCPOA or not.” While the United Kingdom alongside France and Germany has moved closer to the US under the Biden administration, it does not accept US third-party sanctions as legitimate.

Mohammad Eslami, vice president and the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), said on Friday that since President Ebrahim Raisi made a visit to the site in January, the pace of the projects have changed thanks to the president’s emphasis. 

Eslami did not elaborate on the details nor did he mention that Russia is responsible for the projects.

Vienna negotiations hit a bump in the road on March 5 when Russia asked that sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine should not impact implementation of a revived 2015 nuclear deal , the JCPOA. Moscow later said it received the needed assurances from the US.

The Bushehr reactor is not part of the current nuclear dispute between the West and Iran, as Russia handles the nuclear fuel cycle. Iran has been enriching uranium and stockpiling more purified fissile material at other facilities.

The United States had expressed reservations about Russia building the Bushehr nuclear power plant but finally relented in late 2000s, saying that as long as Russia controls the fuel, it did not see the project as a proliferation risk.

Russia commissioned Iran's first nuclear power plant, Bushehr, in 2011. It has one operational unit that generates 1,000 megawatts, providing less than two percent of the country’s electricity.

Iran is expanding the Bushehr reactor to generate more electricity as the country suffers from a chronic shortage of electrical power, with daily outages that cripple industry and anger home consumers.