US, Saudi Arabia Agree On Stopping Iran From Getting Nukes

Watched by a large security presence, people from across the country filled up Baghdad’s Sadr City's al-Falah Street — the main thoroughfare that cuts across the populist figure's key bastion of support – in a mass gathering considered a show of force by the cleric whose party won the highest number of seats in the October national elections but withdrew after failing to form a government with Sunni and Kurdish allies in Iraq's hectic power-sharing system free of Iran-backed parties that have dominated many state institutions for years.

A day after the rally on Saturday, Iran's hardline newspaper Kayhan criticized the speech by Sadr, saying that such divisive statements will not create unity among Iraqis and will only lead to sedition.

Sadr did not attend the prayer; despite rumors he would deliver a fiery address. Instead, a representative reiterated Sadr's calls for the next government to disband militia groups loyal to Iran and punish corrupt politicians for squandering Iraq's vast oil wealth, apparently directed at his arch rival former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. 

In a message read out to his supporters during the service, Sadr -- who is against Iran’s presence in Iraq -- renewed his call to dismantle outlaw armed factions, referring to Iran-backed Shiite militia Hashd al-Shaabi, also known as Popular Mobilization Forces, which was led by former Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis before he was killed alongside Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 by a US drone strike. 

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Sadr reiterated his demand to reorganize the Hashd al-Shaabi and keep it away from foreign interventions – an indirect reference to Iran – adding that the ranks of these forces should be cleansed of incompetent people. 

He also said Hashd al-Shaabi should not be involved in sectarian conflicts, noting that they should withdraw from the Sunni-dominant areas. 

Moreover, Sadr also called for more authority and respect for army and police forces, saying that outlaw groups should not be able to intervene in military matters. 

He noted that "It's not possible to form a strong Iraqi government with unlawful militias. You must dissolve all those factions... "the first step to repentance is to punish the corrupt without delay". 

The Shiite cleric added that most of those who hindered forming the government, "do not believe, deep down, that loving the homeland is part of their faith, and chose to belong to foreign parties. I invite them to prioritize their love for the homeland, and deal with other countries reciprocally." 

"Sadr was here watching us. Loyalty is about answering his call," Reuters quoted Safaa al-Baghdadi, a 42-year-old religious instructor who works in the southern holy city of Najaf, as saying. "His message to the political establishment is to disband the militias who killed Iraqis," he said, referring to mass anti-government, anti-corruption protests in 2019 when police and militias shot hundreds of peaceful demonstrators. "He's also telling Iraqis - if you rise up, I'll support you. We'll do whatever he says.” 

"We could be millions strong today," said Riyadh Husseini, 42, a manual laborer from the southern town of Hilla who travelled to Baghdad and slept on the street overnight in front of the podium where he hoped Sadr would appear. "If Sadr calls for the removal of the corrupt parties in power, they'll be gone within the hour," he said. 

The success of the Sadrist bloc in the election had raised the possibility that he could sideline his Iranian-backed rivals who had dominated politics in Iraq for years, but political disagreement among parties hindered parliament from electing a president and forming a government. 

Late in June, about two weeks after the mass resignation of the Sadrist bloc, Iraq's parliament swore in dozens of new lawmakers, giving majority to Iran-backed politicians in the assembly.

Earlier in June, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein criticized the Islamic Republic’s interference in Iraq's internal affairs, saying Baghdad's tone has changed vis-à-vis Tehran, noting that Iranian interference in Iraq is “unacceptable."

“We have told our Iranian brothers that we are geographical neighbors and that will stay...therefore we need cooperation, we do not need interference from Iran. Interference in Iraqi affairs cannot be accepted from any state,” Hussein said. 

Divisions between Sadr and the Iran-aligned groups as well as Kurds vying for the post of Iraqi president have already forced the country into its second-longest period without an elected government. The country is currently being run by the outgoing government of Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.

Air Force One touch-downed at 6pm local time, following a direct flight from Israel to Saudi Arabia portrayed by United States officials as evidence of Saudi Arabia’s decision to allow Israeli overflights. Biden headed to the Jeddah al-Salam royal palace where he fist-bumped Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman before pictures showed him in an ornate diwan with 86-year-old King Salman bin Abdulaziz.

This was not the decidedly low-key welcome for President Barack Obama in 2016 after he had suggested in Atlantic magazine that the Saudis needed to “share” the region with Iran. But neither was it the flamboyant welcome for President Donald Trump in 2017, when the former reality television star joined in a sword dance.

Nonetheless, within minutes of Prince Mohammad greeting the president, the Saudi Foreign Ministry website posted pictures showing them together.

Biden’s regional tour is attempting to balance various pressures and interests. The summit meeting Saturday of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries with Egypt, Iraq and Jordan, will have Iran high on the agenda, and is expected to give some endorsement to developing air-defense cooperation with Israel aimed primarily at Iranian drones and missiles.

But despite a threat of force in the last resort to stop an Iranian bomb, Biden also was clear in Israel that he remains committed to diplomacy aimed at reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which the Israeli leadership opposes.

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Although media attention in the US has focused on prospects for the Saudis pumping more oil and relieving inflationary pressures that have sent American gasoline prices towards $5 a barrel, US National Security Adviser told reporters en route to Jeddah that any action would be “done in the context of Opec+.” The grouping of oil producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has agreed only modest adjustments to cutbacks during the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and is not due to meet until August 3.

Some analysts argue that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are hedging as they see Biden trying to follow Trump in reducing the direct US role. Hence both have developing diplomatic contacts with Iran and have not cut back ties with Moscow despite the Ukraine crisis.

Divided Democrats

With so many international uncertainties, a sense that Biden may be a one-term president has been enhanced both by Democrats critical of his leadership and by polling evidence. A New York Times/Siena College poll published this week found 64 percent of Democrat voters saying they wanted someone other than Biden to stand in 2024, with his age at 79 years (33 percent) vying with this performance (32 percent) as the main reason.

‘Progressive’ Democrats are uneasy both about Biden’s performance in Israel, when they feel he failed to highlight Palestinian rights, and his developing relationship with the Saudi crown prince, who US intelligence reported was involved in planning the 2018 murder in Turkey of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

NBC News reporter Peter Alexander wrote on Twitter than a Saudi aide “grabbed my arm tightly” after he shouted “Jamal Khashoggi, will you apologize to his family?” Both Prince Mohammad and Biden ignored the question.

But there are also Democrats who believe – alongside many Republicans – that Biden, regardless of human rights issues, should press ahead with building new regional security arrangements including the Saudis.

Ahead of Biden’s regional trip, Robert Menendez, the Democrat Chair of the Senate’s Foreign Affairs Committee, issued a statement Tuesday arguing he needed to “unite regional actors as a strong counter-weight to an Iran intent on bolstering its nuclear capabilities and menacing its neighbors.” Menendez opposed the JCPOA in 2015 and said in May its revival was not in US interests.

The first UAV carrier flotilla of Iran’s Army, comprised of surface and subsurface units equipped with various types of combat, reconnaissance and kamikaze drones, was unveiled by the southern fleet of the Navy in a ceremony attended by Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Major general Abdolrahim Mousavi and Commander of the Iranian Navy Commodore Shahram Irani. 

According to state media, the drones that were displayed on Friday included the Pelican, Arash, Homa, Chamrosh, Jubin, Ababil-4 and Bavar-5, but it was not clear how many vessels or drones were included in each unit, only that one ship carried 50 drones.

Mousavi said the reconnaissance drones have increased the intelligence sway of Iran’s vessels to hundreds of kilometers beyond the borders of the country, adding that the Navy’s suicide and combat drones have leveled up Iran’s deterrence power. 

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan Monday said that Russia wants to obtain hundreds of drones from Iran, both for surveillance and attack, to use in its war in Ukraine, adding that Iran is “preparing to train Russian forces to use these UAVs with initial training sessions slated to begin as soon as early July.”

Iran is known to have supplied UAVs to its proxies in several countries across the Middle East.

“The Americans and Zionists (Israel) know very well the price of using the word 'force' against Iran,” Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi, spokesman for the Iranian armed forces, was quoted as saying by Iranian media on Friday.

According to a report by the Wall Street Journal on Thursday, Benny Gantz disclosed to Biden agreements with some Arab countries with whom Israel does not have official diplomatic ties. 

Saudi Arabia had signaled its backing for the so-called Abraham Accords under which the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain forged relations with Israel built on common commercial interests and worries about Iran. But Riyadh has stopped short of formally recognizing neighboring Israel.

Saudi Arabia will allow overflights to and from Israel, in a decision welcomed by Biden who is visiting the kingdom on Friday. He called the decision an important step towards building a more integrated and stable Middle East region.

The House of Representatives on Thursday backed legislation to work on establishing a joint Middle East air-defense alliance as part of the passage of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act.

Last Thursday, Gantz revealed that in the period since the signing of the Abraham Accords some two years ago, there have been more than 150 meetings between Israeli defense officials with their counterparts across the Middle East, not including Jordan and Egypt, in which Israeli weapons have been sold to moderate Sunni Arab countries for over $3 billion.

The United States commentariat have focused both on a possible plea to the Saudis to pump more oil to ease American gasoline prices now near $5 a gallon and on the president’s shift from shunning Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman as a pariah after the 2018 murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

A summit on Saturday of the Gulf-Cooperation Council (GCC) – the six Gulf nations broadly led by Saudi Arabia – alongside Egypt, Iraq and Jorden is widely expected to recognize, and perhaps enhance, existing air-defense cooperation with Israel, under US supervision, against Iranian and Iranian-supplied missiles and drones.

Israel’s 2020 ‘normalization’ agreement with Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates have encouraged talk of ‘friendship’ and warm relations. In Israel, Biden made great play of his regard for Zionism, making scant reference to Israeli occupation of the West Bank and none to May’s killing of Palestinian-American journalist Shireen Aby Akleh.

He also said clearly for the first time that use of force against Iran remains on the table “as a last resort” to prevent Tehran to produce nuclear weapons.

‘Gigantic mistake’

But Biden also stressed in an interview with Channel 12 television his support for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Diplomacy remained the best way to preclude Tehran from developing a weapon, Biden argued, and called predecessor Donald Trump’s taking the US out of the deal, a move backed by Israel, as a “gigantic mistake” that meant Iran was “closer to a nuclear weapon now than they were before.”

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While Saudi Arabia remains open, like Israel, to further US arms supplies, there is clear skepticism in Riyadh over US intentions and a continuing reluctance to pivot too far in Washington’s direction. Analysts differ over Saudi’s practical ability to boost oil production, but even so Riyadh appears committed to the approach of the Opec+ grouping led by the Saudis alongside Russia, which agreed a modest increase in August after cutbacks at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Saudis wary, UAE rules out ‘Middle East Nato’

Saudi Arabia is wary over Biden’s commitment, following Trump, to downscale US involvement in the Middle East. Riyadh last year opened an Iraqi-mediated dialogue with Iran, from whom it broke diplomatic relations in 2016. Iraq will be the only majority-Shia and broadly Shia-led state at Friday’s GCC-plus-three summit.

The UAE is also hedging. The president’s diplomatic adviser Anwar Gagash said Friday that the Emirates did not support a confrontational approach to Iran and was working to send an ambassador to Tehran, filling the currently vacant post.

Gagash downplayed talk of a ‘Middle East Nato’ – built up from air-defense cooperation – as a “theoretical” concept. “We are open to cooperation, but not cooperation targeting any other country in the region and I specifically mention Iran,” he said. “The UAE is not going to be a party to any group of countries that sees confrontation as a direction, but we do have serious issues with Iran with its regional politics.”

In Tehran, following President Ebrahim Raisi’s warning of a “harsh” Iranian response to any “mistake” by the US and its allies, Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi mocked Biden Friday for his “sleepiness” when threatening force to halt the Iranian nuclear program. Iranian TV Friday announced Tehran’s first drone division in the Indian Ocean.

Some analysts have suggested in recent weeks that Iran stiffened its approach in JCPOA-revival talks with the US in Doha last month in part because of wariness that US mid-term elections could result in Republican Congressional majorities that would immediately undermine any agreement.