Iran-US On Brink Of ‘Indirect’ Nuclear Talks In Qatar

"Iran chose Qatar to host because it is our friend," Mohammad Marandi told the semi-official ISNA news agency. Marandi who was born in the US has been a key media official for the Islamic Republic.

Since a trip by the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell to Iran over the weekend that ended with an agreement to resume talks in a Persian Gulf country, Qatar was mentioned as the likely venue.

Year-long negotiations in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement known as JCPOA came to an abrupt halt in March. During Borrell’s trip it was agreed that Iran and the United States will resume indirect talks apparently with a new format without the presence of Russia and China, two of the original signatories of the agreement.

It is not clear when exactly negotiations will resume and if the mediator will be the EU foreign policy team or other European diplomats from the United Kingdom, France and Germany will also be present. The E3 were also signatories of JCPOA.

There has so far been little official reaction from Washington to the EU-Iran announcement, but it appears there was coordination between the US and EU before Borrell visited Tehran.

Iran agreed on Saturday [June 25] to resume nuclear talks with the United States after the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell visited Tehran and held talks to restart stalled nuclear negotiations.

Foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh speaking at his weekly media briefing thanked Borrell and said, “We confirm that there have been agreements regarding the format, essence and topics” for the new round of talks. “The most important aspect of the talks was that America has given assurances to act based on the entirety of the JCPOA and issues covered by resolution 2231, taking into account Iran’s [expected] economic benefits” from a renewed nuclear agreement.

Khatibzadeh also seemed to hedge Iran’s bets, saying, “We must wait and see if the Americans will part with Trump’s legacy and Borrell’s messages become a reality. We will continue the talks with seriousness and decisiveness with the caveat of not fully trusting America.”

Year-long talks in Vienna came to a sudden halt in March after diplomats said that a draft agreement was 99 percent ready to restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The sticking points apparently revolved around Iran’s demand that the US should lift all sanctions imposed by former President Donald Trump when he withdrew from the deal in 2018.

However, many sanctions, including the designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) as a terrorist organization were not directly related to Iran’s nuclear program and the Biden Administration has so far not accepted Tehran’s demands.

Lately, Tehran has reportedly argued that the demand to remove sanctions related to terrorism is because they would prevent full economic benefits for Iran even if the nuclear deal is restored. Khatibzadeh’s statement that the US has accepted to consider Iran’s “economic benefits” points to Tehran accepting a promise from Washington, rather than a formal removal of all sanctions.

Some observers in Iran have suggested that perhaps the issue of remaining sanctions and other differences will be dealt with after the JCPOA is restored through additional talks.

Iran’s regional aggressive behavior and its missile threat are long-standing problems that the United States and its regional allies are keen to address. The lifting of terrorism and other sanctions could evolve into a new round of talks aimed at Iran’s overall foreign and military policies.

The new talks Borrell agreed with the Iranians seem indeed to differ from the Vienna format. The talks, which Khatobzadeh said will start in a few days, are slated to take place not in Vienna but in a Persian Gulf country, most likely Qatar.

Although many details are still unclear, the talks will not take place with the direct participation of Russia and China as was the case in Vienna. It is not clear if the United Kingdom, France and Germany, as European signatories of the JCPOA will be present or only the EU will mediate in what would be indirect talks, as Iran still refuses to negotiate with the US face to face.

The chiefs of military intelligence and strategic planning believe a revival of a 2015 deal that restricted Iran's nuclear programme would gain time for Israel to prepare an attack aimed at denying its arch-foe the means to make a nuclear weapon, top-selling Yedioth Ahronoth daily said on Friday.

While the Israeli security forces have a say on Iran policy, "it is the government echelon that makes the decisions," Defence Minister Benny Gantz tweeted.

"We will continue holding the open and deep dialogue behind closed doors only. Any other manner harms the State of Israel's security."

Gantz's rebuke was apparently also aimed at the Mossad spy service, which Yedioth said opposed any new Iran nuclear deal.

The European Union and Iran agreed on Saturday that the nuclear negotiations, bogged down for months, would resume soon.

Israel is not a party to the negotiations. But its concerns about the outcome - and its long-standing threats to take unilateral military action against Iran - carry weight in Western capitals.

Israel welcomed then US President Donald Trump's decision to quit the 2015 deal, deeming it insufficient. After Trump was succeeded by Joe Biden, Israeli leaders said they would not be bound by any new deal Washington might reach with Tehran.

Report by Reuters

Some media outlets in Iran, not directly under government management, have published interviews with local pundits about the prospects of more nuclear talks with the United States, after the visit Saturday of the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell to Tehran.

The visit ended in a positive tone that Tehran and Washington might resume indirect talks after a hiatus since March, in a Persian Gulf country, apparently without the participation of Russia and China, two other signatories of the 2015 nuclear agreement known as the JCPOA.

Diako Hosseini, a well-known political analyst in Tehran told the Islamic Labour News Agency (ILNA), expressed confidence that Iran was already tilting toward renewed talks, even before the recent visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Tehran. He did not say how if Lavrov’s meetings with Iranian officials helped convince them to respond positively to Borrell, or as some other Iranian experts believe, Moscow has never been helpful in Iran’s nuclear talks.

Hosseini argued that both Iran and the United States see the JCPOA as serving their interests and if talks resume, this would be the last round and agreement will be at hand.

Asked how the two sides would resolve their outstanding differences, the analyst said that it is possible they would push points of contention to future talks and focus on reviving the 2015 deal, which President Doanld Trump abandoned in 2018.

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Tehran has been demanding the removal of its Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) from the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO). Washington has rejected the demand so far, saying that the IRGC sanctions are not related to the nuclear issue and are “extraneous” to the talks.

Hosseini seemed to be suggesting that Iran could decide not to insist on this or other demands, with an agreement to discuss them after an deal to return to the JCPOA.

“If there is a will to reach an agreement, it is possible to find formulas so that the remaining differences do not to prevent a restoration of the JCPOA,” he said.

Borrell during his visit also spoke about shared interests with Iran over energy resources. Asked if this means Europe is ready to make separate deals with Iran, Hosseini responded that there would be no guarantees from Europe but perhaps “incentives” would be offered.

Reza Nasri, another Tehran-based analyst speaking to Rouydad24 website, dismissed demands often voiced by Iranian officials for iron-clad guarantees that the US would not pull out of an agreement in the future and Europe would be forthcoming in full economic cooperation.

“In all countries, including Iran, there is concept of national interest or ‘Raison d'état’ which allows states based on sovereignty – with their unilateral decision – to abrogate any guarantee or legal obligation toward another country,” he said. Indirectly referring to Iranian officials, he quipped that “Those who beat the drums of receiving guarantees, should say what kind of guarantee they want from America that only addresses one issue.”

He also expressed the view that fast changing global conditions in recent months might have also changed calculations in Washington and Tehran.

Nasri went on to say the best guarantee is creating conditions in which the other side calculates that “breaking an agreement is more harmful than staying committed.”

Iran's indirect talks with the United States on reviving the 2015 nuclear pact will resume soon, the Iranian foreign minister said on Saturday amid a push by Josep Borrell to break a months-long impasse.

The official said discussions would take place on Sunday at a dinner between the leaders of the Group of Seven rich nations with more detailed talks taking place on Tuesday morning between France, Britain, Germany and the United States.

The three European powers are parties to the nuclear deal, which then-US President Donald Trump pulled out of in 2018.

The pact appeared close to being revived in March after 11 months of talks, when the process came to a halt. Tehran insisted that Washington remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its elite security force, from the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization list.

"Talks have intensified between our teams," said the French official, adding that it was crucial to revive the pact for the nuclear non-proliferation benefits, regional security and also to see how it all fits into the question of high oil prices.

Israel has reportedly critized Borrell's trrip to Tehran and the revivial of the JCPOA, which it regards as inadequate in preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

With reporting by Reuters