Malley At the Senate – The Moment Of Truth For Biden’s Iran Policy?

Expressing optimism over the possibility that Tehran and Washington may reach an agreement over the delisting of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), international affairs expert Ali Bigdeli told Fararu news website Tuesday that Raisi’s visit to the sultanate may be an indication that a breakthrough in the nuclear talks could be expected.

“Raisi would definitely not have gone to Oman if the Qatari Emir’s visit to Iran and his European tour had no [positive] outcome,” he said, adding that it is possible that the issue of American prisoners in Iran may have been resolved during the visit.

Iran’s official media say the visit was aimed at improving political and economic ties and have particularly highlighted the trade deals concluded during the visit, including a joint gas pipeline, and opportunities for further cooperation but have not reported any discussion of the nuclear file during the visit.

Raisi’s visit to Muscat Monday was the first by an Iranian president in the past two years and his second to a Persian Gulf country since assuming office in August last year. He made his first visit to a Persian Gulf country to Qatar in February.

Talks in Vienna to restore the JCPOA have stalled since mid-March. Major issues reportedly include Washington’s refusal to delist Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) which the Trump administration designated as a ‘foreign terrorist organization’. Iran also insists on avenging the US killing of IRGC’s Qods Force Commander Ghasem (Qasem) Soleimani who was killed in Baghdad in 2020 in a US targeted drone attack.

Possible Qatari mediation between Tehran and Washington, has somehow been marred after controversy arose over remarks by Qatar’s foreign minister suggesting that Iran's Supreme Leader was ready for compromise in nuclear talks. Iran on Saturday dismissed the remark as reported by Al-Jazeera. Later the broadcaster changed the wording, deleting the word ‘compromise’. On Monday, the Qatari Emir said that Doha is not playing an official mediating role but wants to try to help and encourage all parties to come back to the agreement.

Referring to other diplomatic moves including the recent visits to Tehran of Enrique Mora, the European Union’s coordinator in Iran nuclear talks, another international affairs expert, Abdolreza Faraji-Rad, told Fararu that conditions have improved for continuation of nuclear talks and one can deduce that a change is taking place.

“The sultanate of Oman is still willing to break the impasse in the talks between Iran and 4+1 countries in Vienna and facilitate the release of Iran’s frozen assets despite the changes at the top level of the Omani government [after the death of Sultan Qabus],” Hassan Hanizadeh, a senior Middle East analyst, told another local website.

“It is very important for Oman that the positive outcome of its mediation between Tehran and Washington endures and that the two sides do not conclude that negotiation and third-party mediation are useless,” Oman expert Arash Saffar told Tabnak news website Monday.

“For Oman, managing the contacts between Iran and the US and not allowing tensions to increase, guarantees the security of the Persian Gulf and the national security of [regional] countries,” he said, adding that at the moment the Omani government is more focused on arrangements for unfreezing Iran’s blocked assets in other countries while the Qataris are more active in mediating for the resumption of Vienna talks.

In an interview published on Didban Iran [Iran Monitor] website, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the former head of the Iranian parliament’s Foreign Policy and National Security Committee, went a step further and called Russia’s ambassador in Iran Levan Dzhagaryan a “persona non grata.” He said “any other country would have deported him for his behavior,” and added that Dzhagaryan (Jagaryan) has repeatedly undermined Iranians’ pride and values.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the envoy instructed Iranian reporters in Tehran on how to cover the event and not to use the word ‘war,’ instead to call it a ‘special military operation.’

Falahatpisheh also spoke about the country’s current economic crisis and argued that it has radicalized Iran to the extent of “making a nuclear bomb is now being turned into a topic for discussion in media reports.” He added that for some politicians this is being turned into political posturing. Falahatpisheh, however, did not point out any specific examples.

The moderate-conservative politician has made bold statements in recent months and it is not clear to what extent he has the blessing of at least some circles in the Islamic Republic hierarchy.

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Falahatpisheh also charged that Russia has exceptionally benefitted from its obstruction of the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). He further said that the JCPOA talks have not been frozen, but they have been overshadowed by events in Ukraine. Furthermore, Falahatpisheh warned that the developments in the next six months may irreparably damage the negotiations and turn it into a problem impossible to solve.

Explaining what may take place during the next six months, Falahatpisheh said that a series of regional and global crises might take shape as the West has tried all its devices against Russia and Moscow is adamant to continue its onslaught on Ukraine and beyond. On the other hand, Finland and Sweden are joining NATO and this will flare up a Cold War between Moscow and NATO.

He added that on the other hand, we should await other developments both in Iran and the United States. Biden might lose his support among Congressional Democrats and his decisions will face tougher challenges as Congress is already against the JCPOA.

Earlier, Falahatpisheh had charged that some media and politicians try to cover Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “crimes” in Ukraine. He also charged that Russia was against an international nuclear deal with Iran even before invading Ukraine.

He claimed that the mission of Moscow’s top negotiator in Iran nuclear talks in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, was that no agreement would be signed before the invasion of Ukraine.

In March, Falahatpisheh suggested that Tehran should start direct talks with Washington to cut out mediators like Russia who pursue ulterior motives in the nuclear talks.

In yet another interview, Falahatpisheh called Tehran’s official support for Moscow a historic mistake that has led to Iran’s isolation in the international community.

In his recent interview, Falahatpisheh said that Islamic Republic officials have repeatedly sacrificed Iran’s interests for maintaining good relations with Russia. In three cases officials declared in the past that exporting Iran’s natural gas to Europe was not economically feasible. They did that only to protect Russia’s monopoly on gas exports to Europe, he said.

In his first-ever appearance at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on Monday, Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani added that “Iran is our next-door neighbor. We have a good understanding and good relationship with Iran, and our role is trying to help and to encourage all parties to come back to this agreement”.

During the opening address of the session, Klaus Schwab, the forum's founder and executive chairman, appreciated Qatar’s growing relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey simultaneously. Schwab then described Qatar as an important intermediary between the parties of the Vienna talks to revive the 2015 nuclear accord.

The monarch said Qatar’s geo-strategic role in the region is to facilitate peace and secure energy supplies, adding that the best way to settle any dispute is to sit at the negotiating table

A report on the Doha-based channel Al-Jazeera, citing Qatari foreign minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al-Thani’s account of the Qatari emir’s May 12 meeting with Ali Khamenei had mentioned the word “compromise,” attributing it to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Both Al-Jazeera and Reuters news agency have dropped the word ‘compromise’ from their reports, now citing the Qatari foreign minister as saying that Doha had been informed by Iran that the JCPOA negotiations matters were "under review."

A report on the Doha-based channel citing Qatari foreign minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al-Thani’s account of Qatar emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani’s May 12 meeting with Khamenei had mentioned the word “compromise, attributing it to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Both Al-Jazeera and Reuters news agency have dropped the word ‘compromise’ from their reports, now citing the Qatari foreign minister saying that Doha had been informed by Iran that the JCPOA negotiations matters were "under review."

Iran’s foreign affairs spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh, quickly responded Saturday, telling Tasnim news agency that Foreign Minister Al-Thani’s remarks had been deliberately misinterpreted by some media outlets and in any case falsely attributed to Khamenei.

The leader “never spoke of any compromise over the issue” during the meeting, Khatibzadeh said. "The Supreme Leader … told the Emir of Qatar: 'We have always said that negotiations should be productive and not a waste of time. The Americans know what to do regarding this.’"

Khatibzadeh insisted that the Qatari foreign minister had referred to Iranian officials rather than Khamenei, and that the translation of ‘compromise’ in Persian-language media had given a misleading sense of Iran making concessions rather than resolving disagreements.

Speaking to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)-linked Tasnim news agency Saturday, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said the Al Jazeera report on the Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed Al-Thani’s remarks have been misrepresented by some media outlets “by design”.

Citing Al Jazeera television, some Persian language media claimed Saturday that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has shown willingness to make a compromise in the nuclear issue.

Qatar's foreign minister, Foreign Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, said on Saturday in remarks cited by al Jazeera TV that the Iranian leadership expressed readiness for a compromise regarding "the Iranian nuclear file” during the May 12 visit of Qatari Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani s, to Tehran and his meetings with Iranian officials including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

“The Iranian leadership told us they were ready for a compromise,” the Qatari-based TV quoted the Qatari foreign minister as saying.

Khatibzadeh said the Qatari foreign minister’s reference was to Iranian officials, not the Supreme Leader, and that Persian-language media used a translation of the word ‘compromise’ to suggest concessions rather than settlement of disagreements.

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“The esteemed Leader of the Revolution never spoke of any compromise over the issue [in his meeting with the Qatari Emir],” Khatibzadeh said and quoted Khamenei as saying to the Qatari Emir that he has always said negotiations to restore the deal must be “result-oriented” and not “wasting time”. “The Americans know what they should do towards this end,” he quoted Khamenei as saying in the meeting.

"It is clear from the context of the Leader's remarks that [he was saying] that the ball is in the court of the United States, which must make a wise political decision to fulfil its obligations [under the 2015 nuclear deal]," Khatibzadeh said.

Al Jazeera also quoted Sheikh Mohammed Al-Thani as saying that reaching common ground on the Iranian nuclear issue will boost stability in the Persian Gulf region and help oil markets. "Pumping additional quantities of Iranian oil to the market [if a deal is reached and sanctions on Iran are lifted] will help stabilize crude prices and reduce inflation," the minister said.

Iran’s crude oil exports have been under US sanctions since May 2018 when former President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

On Friday, Qatar’s Emir expressed optimism that an agreement between Washington and Tehran was achievable and said his country was prepared to help broker a deal.

Talks in Vienna to restore the JCPOA have stalled since mid-March. Major issues reportedly include Washington’s refusal to delist Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) which the Trump administration designated as a ‘foreign terrorist organization’. Iran also insists on avenging the US killing of IRGC’s Qods Force Commander Ghasem (Qasem) Soleimani who was killed in Baghdad in 2020 in a US targeted drone attack.

In recent weeks, regional countries including Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait, which have good relations with Washington, have reportedly tried to mediate between Tehran and Washington. Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi is expected to hold behind the scenes talks with Omani officials over the issue during his visit to Muscat Monday.

The EU Foreign Policy Chief Josef Borrell Saturday held a phone call with Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, over the latest developments in the talks. After the phone call, Borrel warned in a tweet that the longer the talks in Vienna take, the more difficult it will be to conclude the negotiations.