Iran Walking Tightrope After Russian Demand Of Sanctions Exemption

There are a myriad of groups fighting in Syria, including local persons fighting for Russia’s ally Iran and the Bashar al-Assad’s forces, the Lebanese Hezbollah, Afghan and Iraqi fighters recruited and paid by Iran, and Jihadist groups opposed to Iran and Russia.

The report, quoting US officials, did not provide details as to whether Syrian citizens are being recruited or foreign fighters. But if Russia has indeed decided it needs foreign fighters in Ukraine it might not hesitate to send non-Syrians recruited by Iran to Europe.

Iran entered the Syrian conflict from its early days in 2011 and in more than a decade has sent tens of thousands of Afghans, Iraqis and even Pakistanis to fight in Syria. In addition, the Iran-backed Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon has been fighting in Syria alongside Iran and Russia for almost a decade.

Fighters in Syria not only have long experience in battle but many have fought in urban battles such as the capture of Aleppo from Assad’s opponents in 2016.

Other reports say that Moscow is also sending mercenaries from Russia to fight in Ukraine.

Many foreigners have also volunteered to fight on the Ukrainian side.

Moscow’s demand was two pronged. First, it alluded to its ability to play its role in an imminent nuclear deal with Iran, and second to have economic and military ties with Tehran without being hampered by recent sanctions imposed for its invasion of Ukraine.

A day after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov demanded written guarantees from Washington to that effect, Blinken said Sunday that the Ukraine sanctions have nothing to do with a potential nuclear deal with Iran.

They "just are not in any way linked together, so I think that's irrelevant," he said, adding that it is in the interests of both Russia and the US that Iran is not able to "have a nuclear weapon or the capacity to produce a weapon on very, very short order."

Lavrov said Saturday that international sanctions against Russia had created "problems from the point of view of Russia's interests" regarding the restoration of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and that sanctions on Russia could complicate Moscow's involvement in Tehran's civilian nuclear program as well as arms sales to Iran.

A European diplomat who spoke to Iran International in Vienna on condition of anonymity said Saturday that Russia’s demand of US guarantees over Ukraine sanctions not impeding its dealings with Iran go farther than Tehran’s nuclear issue.

Iran's foreign ministry, as well as other officials and government-run media have not shown any reaction to Lavrov's remarks yet but the Iranian delegation's media advisor, Mohammad Marandi, told Al Jazeera Sunday that Iran is "waiting for verification from Russians" about their demands from the US because "it's not quite clear exactly what the Russians mean".

The demand is relevant if it is linked to the actual implementation of the JCPOA, especially with regards to the Iranian nuclear program itself, Marandi said. "Because Russians play a role in resolving issues, they will be dealing with enriched uranium and other elements of the nuclear program."

Abolfazl Amuei, a member of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said Sunday that Iran had not asked the Russian side to demand for guarantees from the US. “This is in fact something that Russia and the US must resolve between themselves because it is related with the relations between them in regards to Ukraine."

"Iran has made every effort to distance the Vienna talks from events in Eurasia, Eastern Europe and Ukraine developments. Therefore, Americans must be able to satisfy all parties' wishes on their own," Amuei said.

Some media in Tehran and many Iranian social media users interpreted Lavrov's remarks Saturday as "blackmail" and "taking the JCPOA hostage" to secure Russia's own interests.

Speaking to conservative Entekhab website Sunday, a former Iranian diplomat to the United Nations, Kourosh Ahmadi, said Russia may be aiming at delaying the restoration of the JCPOA and putting pressure on the West.

Restoration of the JCPOA at this time is not in Russia's interest because oil markets' need for Russian oil will decrease if sanctions on Iran are lifted and Iranian oil becomes available in international markets, Ahmadi said. "Oil prices will also drop by 10 to 15 percent. Therefore, it is in Russia's interest to delay the return of Iran's oil to markets as long as possible," he added.

The public relations manager of the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, Mehdi Salem, made the announcement in twitter on Saturday.

He said that according to the country’s network operations center, this “400 gigs” were provided by Russia’s largest digital services company Rostelecom through Ukraine and has been cut off since Saturday evening.

Salem added that since the network routes from Ukraine remain disrupted and takes a long time to reconnect, the ministry is seeking to establish alternative links through other international routes.

As Ukraine's internet service has been disrupted by Russia's invasion, Elon Musk’s company SpaceX has activated global satellite internet constellation Starlink for the Ukrainians.

Internet services on mobile phones and landlines were also disrupted Friday morning in the Iranian capital Tehran and the nearby city of Karaj.

The Iranian government has been blocking thousands of websites and top social media apps for years in a bid to control the flow of information.

Iranians were outraged last week when a group of 18 hardliners in a parliament committee claimed that they had ratified a bill to further restrict internet and social media access.

Some people reacted to the Friday disruption by blaming the authorities, saying the outage was a trial run for the plan to further restrict internet and social media.

Also, a well-known academic in Tehran says Putin is "unpredictable" and "has done more harm to himself than to those he considers his enemies." He has called on Iranian officials to distance themselves from Putin.

This comes while Iran's top officials’ including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi have expressed support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine blaming the United States for the crisis.

Hossein Alaei, the former chairman of the IRGC joint staff (1997-2000) and commander of Iranian navy (1985-1990), has written in an article that although the war in Ukraine has so far served the interests of the US and China, it has caused a disgrace for Russia's “dictator Putin”. The article was published in Jamaran website, close to Iran's reformists and managed by Hassan Khomeini, a grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic.

Alaei said that the war will last long with long-term implications for the people of Russia and Ukraine. He opined as a result of the war the people of Russia will look forward to an end to Putin's presidency.

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General Alaei stressed that ten days after the start of the war, Putin is now entangled in the quagmire of the occupation of Ukraine and cannot save himself from the trouble he has created. He added that thanks to the resistance by Ukrainians and the alliance of Europe and the United States against Russia, Putin finds himself in a tough situation. "Although it is too early to talk about the outcome of this war, one can imagine that it is a war of attrition to last for a long time," he added.

Assessing possible outcomes of Putin's action, Alaei said that despite the destruction of infrastructures and the displacement of nearly a million Ukrainians, reinforcement of Europe's military capabilities and solidarity between the EU and the US, as well as the expansion of NATO will be the consequences of this war. Meanwhile, Alaei warned that the Islamic Republic should understand and condemn Russia's aggression more than any other country as it has already experienced the Soviet Union's support for Saddam Hussain in his war against Iran.

In an Interview with the reformist daily Arman on Sunday, Iranian academic Pirouz Mojtahedzadeh called on Iranian officials to distance themselves from Putin. Mojtahedzadeh, a political scientist, quoted other academics as saying that Putin might even resort to using Russia's nuclear power if the conflict in Ukraine further intensifies.

However, he said Putin does not hold all the power in Russia and there are others around him who are watching his moves. They know that using nuclear weapons will do more harm to Russia than to other countries. However, he said that Putin has gone beyond the realm of logic and wisdom. He added that his behavior reminds everyone of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussain when he launched his invasion of Kuwait.

Mojtahedzadeh charged that Putin has lost his self-control under immense international pressure following the invasion of Ukraine. "I believe the sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and EU will destroy Russia," Mojtahedzadeh said, adding that, "Perhaps someone wishes to mess with the global balance of power. But this is no joke. No country can eliminate this balance."

Assessing Iran’s reaction to the war in Ukraine, Mojtahedzadeh said: "I have already warned that Iran should not look for unilateral relations with Russia and should prove this to the world by sticking to UN resolutions."

"[Russian Foreign Minister Sergei] Lavrov's demands are way above nuclear cooperation [allowed by the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran]," the diplomat who spoke to Iran International in Vienna on condition of anonymity said.

Lavrov said Saturday that international sanctions against Russia had created "problems from the point of view of Russia's interests" regarding the restoration of the 2015 deal, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and that sanctions on Russia could complicate Moscow's involvement in Tehran's civilian nuclear program as well as arms sales to Iran.

The diplomat said that Russia's envoy in the Vienna talks, Mikhail Ulyanov, had first raised the issue of Ukraine sanction only in relation to Moscow's role in a possible nuclear deal with Tehran, but Lavrov's remarks went much farther, demading a wider exemptions in dealings with Iran.

Lavrov said that Russia and China would be able to help Iran develop its civilian nuclear program in line with non-proliferation rules and should be free to do so without the threat of recent sanctions imposed for Russia’s attack on Ukraine. But he demanded written guarantees from the US, at the minimum level of Secretary of State, that the Ukraine-related sanctions by the US would not in any way harm Russia's "right to free, fully-fledged trade and economic and investment cooperation and military-technical cooperation with Iran".

"The new Russia-related sanctions are unrelated to the JCPOA and should not have any impact on its potential implementation," a State Department spokesperson said Saturday adding that Washington continues to engage with Russia on a return to full implementation of the JCPOA. "Russia shares a common interest in ensuring Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon. "

Iranian officials have not shown any reaction to Lavrov's remarks but somemedia in Tehran and many Iranian social media users interpreted Lavrov's remarks Saturday as "blackmail" and "taking the JCPOA hostage" to secure Russia's own interests.

The diplomat added that Lavrov's remarks Saturday would pose an important political obstacle to Vienna talks if what Moscow wants is lifting some of the sanctions imposed on it for its invasion of Ukraine.

It is widely assumed Russia would play a central role in implementing a revived JCPOA, including shipping out enriched uranium currently held by Iran exceeding JCPOA limits. On Saturday the Russian envoy to the talks, Mikhail Ulyanov, said he had met with Enrique Mora, the EU Coordinator at the Vienna talks, and raised several questions that have to be addressed at this stage 'to ensure smooth civil nuclear cooperation with Iran".

The European diplomat also told Iran International that besides Lavrov's new demand, the two issues that Iran has been insisting on – economic guarantees from the US to ensure sanctions are lifted and delisting the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as a terrorist organization – have remained unresolved so far.

Two diplomats, one of them not directly involved in the talks, told Reuters on Saturday that China has also demanded written guarantees that its companies doing business in Iran would not be affected by US sanctions.

Talks in Vienna between Iran and world powers, including Russia, to restore the JCPOA have now reached a critical stage with most sides saying an agreement could be reached within days.