Survey Says One-Third Of Iranians Want To Emigrate

Ukraine and Russia account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports and nearly a fifth of corn.

Wheat prices surged five percent on Tuesday compared with only a day earlier on fears that the Ukraine crisis can disrupt the world’s staple grain markets, worrying countries like Iran -- which rely on imports from the region. Transport logistics problems can lead to shortages, food price inflation, or even hunger.

Bloomberg cited Russian sources that grain exports from the country will probably be on hold for at least the next couple of weeks while war in the Black Sea has also closed Ukrainian ports since Thursday.

Iran’s Feed and Grain Importers Union has recently announced that the Russian invasion can also cause problems in the imports of livestock feed and grain to Iran because companies cannot keep their deliveries due to logjams in supply chains while airlines cancelled cargo flights because of reciprocal airspace bans that hit both Russia and Europe.

A member of the union has called on the government to provide the means to import the staple grains from other countries such as Argentina, Canada and Brazil.

“There will be a big impact with respect to wheat prices and prices of bread for ordinary people,” World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said Friday.

The assessments in November concurred that his promises were still unmet, and his economic team failed to address the problems they had highlighted during the presidential campaign.

After his first three months, the press had criticized Raisi and his team of diplomats for failing to reach a settlement in the Islamic Republic's long-standing diplomatic confrontations with the United States and neighboring countries. The failure of the new government's diplomacy was most evident in the deadlock over the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

Now, a report in the moderate Rouydad24 news website, is the first assessment that covers the past six months. The main idea behind the report is that this is a longer span of time and can provide a sound basis for judging Raisi's performance.

Just to be fair, the report concluded that in some areas including vaccination against Covid-19 and communicating with the masses of Iranians Raisi's performance has been better than the track record of his predecessor, former President Hassan Rouhani.

At the same time, the report argued that some of Raisi’s points of strength during his first three months in office have turned into points of weakness.

Following the first three-month assessment, one of Raisi's aides told the press sarcastically that even if growing eggplants takes more than three months, the Iranian press expected Raisi's promises to be fulfilled sooner.

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The Raisi administration's success in vaccination was the product of two factors: The decision to import vaccines rather focus on developing homegrown variants and Chinese government's willingness to provide vaccines to the new conservative Iranian government.

Broken promises

Meanwhile, during the past six months, the administration has faced more protests by various vocational groups such as teachers, steel workers, pensioners and so on than any other Iranian government. A huge wave of protests in Esfahan also rocked the government. The reason is its failure to address the economic and financial problems it had promised to tackle during the election campaign. At the same time Iranian media are not allowed to cover the news of these protests that are almost solely reflected in foreign-based media's coverage.

Another shortcoming in Raisi's performance is the promise to build four million homes every year has been officially turned into "one million in four years." People have noticed this because it is measurable. The government continues registering new buyers for the homes it hopes to complete during the second four years of Raisi's presidency. That is if he gets re-elected.

Despite his election promise, Raisi’s government has pushed to restrict access to the Internet and social media, which the only outlet where people can vent their frustration and talk about their grievances or disclose corruption and lawlessness.

In the meantime, while Iranians expected a hardliner government to work better with a hardliner parliament, disputes have emerged between the two sides over the performance of Raisi's economic and foreign relations teams. The Majles is now more than adamant to impeach and replace at least four of Raisi's ministers.

Also, Raisi's promise to mend ties with neighbors did not bear fruit. The impasse with Saudi Arabia still remains in place and tensions between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan reached dangerous levels at least twice during the past six months. Meanwhile Putin's humiliating treatment of Raisi, and blunders by him and his team during his visit to Moscow gave way to many jokes.

Although the extent of criticism of the Raisi Administration is unprecedented during the past decades and the government's social capital has been constantly in decline, still Iranian media believe Raisi's provincial visits is the highlight of his few achievements. He also pays occasional "surprise visits" to factories and other workplaces where once he suddenly asked a worker if he had lunch, making him popular among joke-loving Iranians for all the wrong reasons.

According to the latest report released by Statistical Center of Iran (SCI)on Monday, the price for one kilogram of Iranian rice in the month of Bahman (ended on February 20) increased by about 20 percent compared with the previous month, and 95 percent compared with a year ago.

The report said the price reached 760,000 rials (about $3), showing a 95.3-percent rise compared to the same period last year.

The price reported by SCI is way lower than the actual price in the market, which is nearly 1,000,000 rials (about $4), which means the real increase in the price of rice is closer to 200 percent.

With only a few weeks left until the new Iranian year on March 20, prices of essential food items are still rising at alarming levels, local media report.

Food prices have been rising much faster than the general inflation rate -- hovering around 40 percent -- with government figures showing above 60-percent inflation at retail level in 2021, compared with 2020.

Sugar and different types of rice are usually items with highest price increases followed by different kinds of meat, chicken and eggs as well as cooking oil.

United States and European sanctions on Russia are far milder than against Iran, with oil and gas flowing to the West. While Russian gas exports to Europe via Ukraine continued normally Monday, financial sanctions on Russia and moving the Champions League soccer final have prompted some Iranian commentators to point out that Iran cannot move into the breach if Europe were to bar Russian gas.

Shargh newspaper wrote Monday that it would be wrong to overplay Iran's potential for replacing Russia in European markets. The reformist newspaper informed readers that Iran could not supply LNG (liquefied natural gas) given a lack of infrastructure – although Russian gas is supplied mainly by pipeline.

Iran needs foreign investment and technology to develop gas infrastructure, which has been difficult given years of international and United States sanctions. Iran and Russia hold 37 and 32 trillion cubic metres (tcm) of the world's proven gas reserves, while they respectively produce 250 and 638 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually while respectively consuming 233 and 411 bcm domestically.

One of Tehran’s main aims is talks with world powers over restoring the 2015 nuclear deal - which US President Donald Trump withdrew from in 2018 – is to see lifted draconian US sanctions. Total, the French energy major withdrew from a contract in the South Pars gasfield in 2018due to the US ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions, a contract that included LNG development, which could be important for Tehran’s worldwide exports.

"The truth is we can't do anything in this regard unless we solve our problems with the rest of the world, which requires the restoration of the nuclear deal (JCPOA) and deepening of relations with developed countries," Morteza Behrouzi, energy expert, also told Hamshahri newspaper in September 28.

The Chalous Basin reportedly holds 30 percent of developable natural gas reserves of all Caspian Sea littoral countries and could, following $19 billion in investment and the lifting of US sanctions, be well placed to supply Europe.

Even before the recent Ukraine crisis, some argued Russia has over the years tried to prevent Iran from exporting gas to Europe.

"Russia will not allow Iran to enter the European gas markets that easily and will use every tool at their disposal to prevent Europe from overcoming its dependence on Russian gas," Alireza Soltani, political economist told Entekhab website February 16. "They will prevent [Iran from exporting gas to Europe] but even if it’s to happen, they want it to happen under Russian control."

Iranian officials have long been warning of inadequate natural gas production that cannot keep pace with domestic consumption. Energy consumption is relatively high because of state subsidies to consumers − costing $45 billion a year- that put gasoline, electricity and other fuels at low levels compared to other countries. Iran's oil minister Javad Owji said November that to avoid becoming a net importer, Iran needed $160 billion of investments in its oil and gas industries in the coming years.

Pro-Moscow positions are abundant in hardliner media outlets close to the core of the regime, such as Kayhan and Iran newspapers, while reformist daily Arman on Saturday and Sunday reflected anti-Russia views that normally do not find their way into the media.

Many ordinary Iranians and opponents of the Islamic Republic invariably support Ukraine and condemn the government pro-Russia policies on social media.

Other reformist media such as Sharq and Etemad newspapers carve out a position in between the two extremes. They often harshly criticize Moscow for its violation of international law, but invariably remind that the United States is no better when you look at its track record in places such as Afghanistan and the Middle east.

Reformists criticize President Ebrahim Raisi’s administration for tacitly blaming NATO and the United States for Russia’s actions, while also criticizing the US to remain politically correct given the regimes animosity toward Washington.

A good example of a reformist approach to the issue was reflected in an article in the Etemad daily by commentator Abbas Abdi who tried to strike a balance by blaming both Russia and the United States for the crisis in Ukraine. He said: "In the agreement about the nuclear disarmament of Ukraine and guaranteeing its territorial integrity in the 1990s, Russia undertook not to invade Ukraine and the agreement was also guaranteed by the United States. How responsible should a guarantor be?"

Abdi wrote in another part of the article: "Iranian hardliners say we should learn a lesson from this crisis in which the United States has not stood by its commitment [to Ukraine]. That is right. But don't Iran's hardliners want to take a lesson from Russia's behavior? Russia had guaranteed that no country would be allowed to invade Ukraine. I wish you take this lesson and rely on the people's support rather than relying on foreigners."

Abdi further wrote that Iran's position about Russia's invasion of Ukraine leaves the impression that it is not an independent state. He argued that Iran behaved in a way as if it had no other choice but to support Moscow. He hinted that Raisi’s supportive phone call to Vladimir Putin did not portray Iran as an independent country.

Abdi asked, "Why are we in such a position? We are in this position because of the same reason that Ukraine's president counted on the West in his confrontation with Russia. In the same way, Iran should not count on Russia or China in its confrontation with the West as they follow their own interests. And interests will push ethics and international commitments to the margins."

On the pro-Moscow front, Hossein Abbaszadeh Meshkini, the spokesman for the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Relations Committee opined in an interview with Didban Iran that "Russia's attack on Ukraine was a deterrent measure to prevent an extensive war in Europe at the same scale as World War II."

Abbaszadeh further claimed that Moscow's “preventative” measure has been taken within the frameworks of the UN Charter. He claimed that the West's occupation of Afghanistan and Syria as well as everyday developments in the Middle East follow the same logic. He stressed that Russia is concerned about the expansion of NATO toward the Russian borders, adding that no independent country would tolerate NATO's presence at its borders.

He said Russia has been repeatedly sanctioned by the EU and the United States and it cannot tolerate NATO's presence at its borders. Abbaszadeh reiterated the regime’s position by saying that "We believe Russia and Ukraine can solve their problems through diplomacy which offers a less costly solution."