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Debate Over Ukraine Reflects Divisions Among Political Elite In Iran

Feb 27, 2022, 20:11 GMT+0Updated: 16:37 GMT+0
A woman with colors of the Ukrainian flag painted on her face in London. February 27, 2022
A woman with colors of the Ukrainian flag painted on her face in London. February 27, 2022

As debate about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues in Iran, divisions reflect the political dispositions of various factions over Tehran’s foreign policy.

Pro-Moscow positions are abundant in hardliner media outlets close to the core of the regime, such as Kayhan and Iran newspapers, while reformist daily Arman on Saturday and Sunday reflected anti-Russia views that normally do not find their way into the media.

Many ordinary Iranians and opponents of the Islamic Republic invariably support Ukraine and condemn the government pro-Russia policies on social media.

Other reformist media such as Sharq and Etemad newspapers carve out a position in between the two extremes. They often harshly criticize Moscow for its violation of international law, but invariably remind that the United States is no better when you look at its track record in places such as Afghanistan and the Middle east.

Reformists criticize President Ebrahim Raisi’s administration for tacitly blaming NATO and the United States for Russia’s actions, while also criticizing the US to remain politically correct given the regimes animosity toward Washington.

A good example of a reformist approach to the issue was reflected in an article in the Etemad daily by commentator Abbas Abdi who tried to strike a balance by blaming both Russia and the United States for the crisis in Ukraine. He said: "In the agreement about the nuclear disarmament of Ukraine and guaranteeing its territorial integrity in the 1990s, Russia undertook not to invade Ukraine and the agreement was also guaranteed by the United States. How responsible should a guarantor be?"

Abdi wrote in another part of the article: "Iranian hardliners say we should learn a lesson from this crisis in which the United States has not stood by its commitment [to Ukraine]. That is right. But don't Iran's hardliners want to take a lesson from Russia's behavior? Russia had guaranteed that no country would be allowed to invade Ukraine. I wish you take this lesson and rely on the people's support rather than relying on foreigners."

Abdi further wrote that Iran's position about Russia's invasion of Ukraine leaves the impression that it is not an independent state. He argued that Iran behaved in a way as if it had no other choice but to support Moscow. He hinted that Raisi’s supportive phone call to Vladimir Putin did not portray Iran as an independent country.

Abdi asked, "Why are we in such a position? We are in this position because of the same reason that Ukraine's president counted on the West in his confrontation with Russia. In the same way, Iran should not count on Russia or China in its confrontation with the West as they follow their own interests. And interests will push ethics and international commitments to the margins."

On the pro-Moscow front, Hossein Abbaszadeh Meshkini, the spokesman for the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Relations Committee opined in an interview with Didban Iran that "Russia's attack on Ukraine was a deterrent measure to prevent an extensive war in Europe at the same scale as World War II."

Abbaszadeh further claimed that Moscow's “preventative” measure has been taken within the frameworks of the UN Charter. He claimed that the West's occupation of Afghanistan and Syria as well as everyday developments in the Middle East follow the same logic. He stressed that Russia is concerned about the expansion of NATO toward the Russian borders, adding that no independent country would tolerate NATO's presence at its borders.

He said Russia has been repeatedly sanctioned by the EU and the United States and it cannot tolerate NATO's presence at its borders. Abbaszadeh reiterated the regime’s position by saying that "We believe Russia and Ukraine can solve their problems through diplomacy which offers a less costly solution."

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Iran's Case Can Show What Sanctions Can Do To Russia

Feb 27, 2022, 15:52 GMT+0
•
Mardo Soghom

It is hard to predict the impact of Western sanctions on Russia, but there is the example of Iran and its myriad of economic problems triggered by sanctions.

Over the weekend, Western countries moved to expand economic sanctions against Russia that threw tens of thousands of troops with tanks and air power to conquer Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin’s decision was the most serious challenge to Western security perhaps since World War II.

Finally, Western countries agreed to remove several Russian banks from the international banking system SWIFT, an action that was also taken against Iran in the past decade.

While, unlike the Iran case, Russian oil and gas have not been sanctioned, experts agree that banking and other sanctions will impact its energy exports and revenues Moscow depends on.

Western sanctions threaten to substantially weaken the Russian ruble, as well as the health of its banks. They could also trigger high double-digit inflation, a sharp recession and serious unemployment, with their inevitable political consequences. These in combination could turn into a systemic affliction that would be hard for Russia to shake off even after the crisis end in some sort of positive resolution.

Iran’s example is there to see. Although international sanctions were lifted in early 2016 after a nuclear deal was signed and Iran was able to take a deep breath, its international trade and banking were far from normal.

Demonstrators carry flags and placards as they take part in an anti-war protest in Berlin, after Russia invaded Ukraine. February 27, 2022.
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Demonstrators carry flags and placards as they take part in an anti-war protest in Berlin, after Russia invaded Ukraine. February 27, 2022.

Iranians complained for two years that foreign companies were reluctant to deal with them, banks would not easily cooperate to facilitate trade deals and even ordinary Iranian expats encountered problems in other countries to extend visas, open bank accounts and receive credit lines.

Residual sanctions syndrome

This is what we can call ‘residual sanctions syndrome’. One of the most important aftereffects of international sanctions is loss of credit worthiness in the world financial system, even after sanctions are formally lifted. Institutions are extremely cautious to lend money and most importantly foreign investors avoid a country that experienced Western sanctions.

Again, Iran is a good example. The two-year period from 2016-2018 when most economic sanctions were removed, Iran had a hard time to get major deals and joint ventures. While the country needed tens of billions of dollars in investment, it was able to secure just a few billion dollars.

When Donald Trump became president and criticized the nuclear agreement in 2017, the few investors, such as the French energy giant Total, which had carefully tip-toed into Iran after sanctions had been removed, immediately slowed down investment and eventually withdrew when the US began reimposing sanctions.

Economic sanctions in today’s global economy are also complicated matters and even after they are removed many financial and business actors are not sure what provisions and regulations have been relaxed and how to make decisions without risking legal complications.

One aspect of the residual sanctions syndrome is the persistence of the underlying political factor(s) that led to a sanctions’ regime in the first place. Iran did come to an agreement with the United States and its allies over limiting its nuclear program, but it was still perceived as a pariah state because of its anti-Western foreign policy and its continued overt and covert destabilizing actions in the Middle East.

The psychological aftereffects of sanctions tend to be strong if the sanctioned party is expected to re-exhibit erratic behavior. Would-be investors and trade partners know that there is an inherent risk of doing business with an actor that was once pressured by sanctions and is likely to repeat undesirable actions either driven by aggressive impulses, ideology or militarism.

Even if Putin resolves the Ukraine issue with an agreement and the immediate causes of sanctions are resolved, Russia will lose trustworthiness with business decision makers who simply cannot be sure when the next crisis will come.

Oil Prices After Invasion May Not Influence Iran Nuclear Talks

Feb 27, 2022, 08:31 GMT+0
•
Iran International Newsroom

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine began some analysts said oil can hit $130 a barrel and Iran's supplies will be needed, but prices pulled back on Friday.

Bloomberg quoted Rystad Energy Chief Executive Jarand Rystad as saying that the conflict could jeopardize one million barrels of crude that flows through Ukraine and the Black Sea, but “long-term disruptions could be far more significant.”

Adi Imsirovic, a Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and former oil trader, said in a report published by Reuters that he is surprised the price has not jumped to $130 per barrel already. One reason could be that simmering tensions for the past months already contributed up to $10 a barrel to recent price increases.

But on Friday prices that had spiked above $100 a barrel retreated, signaling some reassurance that the West does not intent to sanction Russian energy supplies. Half of Russia’s crude oil exports, 2.3 million barrels a day go to the West.

Russia supplies ten percent of the world’s oil and is the second largest natural gas producer after the United States. Europe depends on Russia for close to 40 percent of its natural gas consumption.

President Joe Biden signaled on Thursday that he may release more supplies from strategic reserves in coordination with other countries, to address any shortfalls.

Analysts also raise the possibility of a nuclear agreement between Iran and the United States that could end Washington’s oil export sanctions on Tehran and help control prices. But Iran has little extra capacity, which is already not being utilized and exported. However, Imsirovic noted that Tehran has stockpiled 80 million barrels on tankers at sea that could be an immediate partial help.

An agreement between the US and Iran, however, remains uncertain as signals indicate Tehran insists on its tough conditions and US says “serious issues” remain unresolved. Statements by Iranian officials have not signaled of a softening of their position. Tehran still demands more US sanctions to be lifted and on Friday its nuclear chief said the country will continue to enrich uranium at 20 percent, even if sanctions are lifted.

It is not clear if Washington will make more concessions at this point, although the need to increase oil supplies looms large when the United States is confronting rising inflation.

Saudi Arabia and other Middle East producers could try to increase output too. Analysts are not sure whether low production by the Saudis is intentional or the result of technical limitations. The kingdom reduced output in 2020 when demand slumped with the pandemic. Some say that it is not easy to revive reduced production. But if Riyadh is holding back production that could also be related to Iran.

Saudi Arabia is not thrilled by the Biden Administration’s attempts to reach a nuclear deal with Iran, which many see as a weak arrangement that would not prevent Tehran from getting close to producing nuclear weapons. Many regional countries see the specter of a nuclear Iran as a serious threat to their security.

There is also the issue of Tehran’s support for Yemen’s Houthi rebels that fight a Saudi-led coalition that intervened in the country to support the internationally recognized government.

Iran Police Disperse Crowd Chanting 'Death To Putin And Supporters’

Feb 26, 2022, 20:43 GMT+0

Videos on social media Saturday evening appeared to show police dispersing protesters chanting “Death to Putin” outside the Ukrainian embassy in Tehran.

After a summons to protest on social media, those assembled also chanted "Russian Embassy Is Den of Spies," "Death to Warmongers and Putin Supporters," "Putin Murders, the Stupid Ones Support,""Long Live Ukraine," and "Long Live Peace.”

Police began dispersing protesters a short while after they began to gather. A woman is seen in one of the videos telling the police, “We hate you.”

Videos on social media also showed police had cordoned off the Russian embassy in central Tehran to prevent protesters gathering there. Iran International has learned that additional security measures were put in place around the embassy as soon as calls for a protest went out on social media.

Iranian leaders, including President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, have generally attributed the crisis in Ukraine to Nato and American “provocations”. They have called on Russia and Ukraine to call a ceasefire and find a diplomatic solution to end it.

Some Iranians and media outlets are unhappy with this. Reformist commentator Sadegh Zibakalam has tweeted “solidarity” with Ukraine and condemned what he called the Iranian government's support of Russia: "Contrary to the government's stance, the hearts of many Iranians are with the people of Ukraine and they condemn this aggression.”

The conservative Johmouri Eslami newspaper said Saturday that Russia had “clearly violated Ukraine's sovereignty” and that “military occupation of a country is against international regulations and ethical values.”

According to Modara news website, Mahmoud Abbaszadeh-Meshkini, spokesman of the parliament's National Security Committee, said Saturday that any recognized political party could submit an application to the interior ministry for a protest rally, including over Ukraine.

"Will you agree to permit a protest rally if a group of Iranians decide to stage a rally in front of the Russian Embassy to protest against the Russian invasion of Ukraine or it is [considered] against [Iran's] national interests?" journalist Mohammad Mohajeri asked in a tweet addressed to Interior Minister Ahmad VahidiSaturday.

Despite a constitutional right to freely protest, provided that participants do not carry arms and do not cause damage to "foundations of Islam", authorities regularly ignore applications for holding protest rallies.

Iran's state broadcaster (IRIB) controlled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and media such as Fars and Tasnim news agencies affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, have generally avoided the use of the word ‘attack’ and referred to "Russia's special military operations in eastern Ukraine."

This has riled some. Reza Ghobishavi, deputy editor of the conservative Asr-e Iran news website, criticized Thursday media outlets that had "sacrificed their credibility by siding with Russian President Vladimir Putin."

Former conservative deputy speaker of parliament Ali Motahari in a tweet Thursday compared IRIB to a “Russian colony.”

Iranians To Hold Rally In Solidarity With Ukraine In Tehran

Feb 26, 2022, 15:55 GMT+0

A group of Iranians has planned a demonstration at the Ukrainian embassy in the capital Tehran to express sympathy for Ukraine as Russia sent 100,000 troops to occupy the country.

The gathering is scheduled to start at 19:00 (local time) in front of the embassy building where people plan to hold a candlelight vigil for the lives lost during the Russian invasion.

It is still not clear if Iran’s government, an ally of Russia, will permit the gathering.

Many social media users have said that the rally should be instead held in front of the Russian embassy, but the likelihood of authorities not allowing a gathering there is much higher.

Russia’s attacks on the capital Kyiv and several other cities have been met with fierce resistance, with President Volodymyr Zelensky saying that “The occupiers wanted to block the center of our state... We broke their plan.”

Iran officially blames US and NATO's “provocations” for the crisis, reiterating support for the Russian invasion.

Iran's state television, operating under the control of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has been supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine during the past three days.

As President Ebrahim Raisi rushed to express support for Russia on the first day of the invasion, observers on social media said the sheer fact that he called Vladimir Putin in this situation, put the Islamic Republic in an embarrassing situation.

Debate Over Ukraine Invasion Intensifies In Iran

Feb 26, 2022, 15:34 GMT+0

Two Tehran newspapers affiliated with the office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei presented conflicting views about Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Saturday.

Iranian officials, including President Ebrahim Raisi, and some media outlets have supported Russia’s actions by blaming NATO and the United States for provoking Moscow.

Meanwhile, reports from Tehran say groups of Iranians have asked for the government's permission for a protest gathering Saturday afternoon in front of the Ukrainian Embassy in Tehran Saturday evening to show their anger at the invasion.

The hardliner daily Kayhan, which always supports Russia and maintains tough anti-US rhetoric, warned other countries and probably cautioned its pro-Khamenei readers that "The United States has once again abandoned one of its allies" and maintained that "Pro-Western individuals should take a lesson from This."

The daily quoted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as having said that "The westerners watched the situation from afar and left us alone," a statement that could be part of Russia or Kayhan's propaganda effort.

The Kayhan continued that during the past decades the United States has abandoned several of its allies after pushing them into crises. The daily mentioned former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani as an example and quoted him as saying the "I wish I had not trusted the Westerners."

Kayhan, which has been backing Russia's invasion of Ukraine during the past two days, carried extensive reports and commentaries supporting Russia's position in an exaggerated tone. On the other hand, Jomhouri Eslami, a newspaper whose proprietor is no one but Ali Khamenei, has been taking a more pragmatist position.

In its editorial on Saturday, Jomhouri Eslami reminded that "Russians are as untrustworthy as the Americans. "The Russian's record of invasion of Iran's Azarbaijan and Gilan provinces in early and mid-twentieth century, as well as their shelling of the holy shrine of Imam Reza [the 8th Shiite Imam] in Mashhad and its support for Saddam Hussain's Iraq in the 1980s war against Iran shows this reality quite clearly."

The editorial also observed that Iranian position of Iranian officials regarding the invasion of Ukraine cannot be ignored. "The stances declared by Iranian officials about the invasion contradict the principles of the Islamic Republic. Russia has clearly violated Ukraine's sovereignty and military occupation of a country is against international regulations and ethical values. Therefore, the officials of the Islamic Republic should unreservedly and clearly condemn Russia's warmongering and remind Russian leaders that the right thing to settle disputes is dialogue between Moscow and Kyiv.”

The contradictory views expressed by two newspapers published by Khamenei's office might show that the Islamic Republic's leader has been prompted to balance the government's stances toward the Ukrainian crisis. This is particularly important as regime insiders such as former lawmaker Ali Motahari have said that Iranian officials are behaving in a way as if Iran is a Russian Colony.

In another development Reformist commentator Sadegh Zibakalam has apologized in a tweet to the Ukrainian people for Iran’s support of Russia and asked them to understand that it is not easy for Iranians to publicly oppose Russia's policy and actions.

Meanwhile, former Iranian diplomat Hossein Mousavian, holding an academic post at Princeton University, also criticized Iranian officials including President Ebrahim Raisi and Security Chief Ali Shamkhani's pro-Russian statements and said that making such statements are contrary to Tehran's interests.