Parliament Meddling Would ‘Muddle Iran Budget’

The health ministry out the total number of people infected with the coronavirus since the outbreak of the pandemic at nearly 7 million: 15,340 had tested positive in the past 24 hours, with 2,333 in hospital.

Tehran constitutes 10 percent of Iran’s population and if the capital had 70 Covid deaths in one day, the nationwide toll could have been higher than the 227 figure the government announced on Wednesday.

Iran has the Middle East’s highest official figures for Covid fatalities with around 135,500 deaths in an 85 million population with 67 percent fully vaccinated. Egypt, with 29 percent of its 104-million population fully vaccinated, has reported just under 29.000 deaths.

Iran’s statistics, announced daily by the health ministry, have been questioned by – among others – the principlist newspaper Javan and BBC Persian. While health authorities have warned the figures are likely to increase over the next two months with the onset of the Omicron variant, President Ebrahim Raisi has rejected proposals for a nationwide shutdown.

This week, Iran returned about 820,000 doses of AstraZeneca vaccines donated by Poland, with a media report alleging they had been made in the United States.

Oil prices hover around their eight-year highs and reaching the psychologically unsettling $100 a barrel mark reminiscent of a the early 2010s.

In analysis Wednesday, John Kemp wrote for Reuters that “time is ripe for a renewed agreement between the United States and its allies and Iran that swaps sanctions easing for limits on enrichment and other nuclear activities.”

OPEC and its oil-producing allies known as OPEC+ have reduced daily oil supplies by around 650,000 barrels after larger cuts in 2020 in the wake of COVID-19 and declining demand. Now, they have agreements in place not to increase production to pre-pandemic levels, although demand is approaching that volume.

Some also argue, that irrespective of agreements among OPEC+ countries it is simply hard to revive production at oil fields that were partially or fully shut down for two years.

Therefore, hopes focus on a nuclear deal with Iran, which analysts hope can add another 500,000 barrels a day to global supplies and prevent prices from braking through the $100pb threshold.

But it is not certain that Iran can deliver that extra volume in the coming months. By all indications Tehran is already exporting around 1.2 million barrels per day, mostly to China and its capacity to export much more is questionable.

Iran’s domestic consumption is well over two million barrels pd and in order to export 1.7 or 1.8 million per day, its total production should come very close to four million bpd, which would be almost impossible, at least this year.

Iran’s parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, urging caution in drafting the budget this week, warned lawmakers that pinning more hopes on oil revenues is unrealistic. He explicitly said that Iran cannot produce four million bpd and its maximum export capacity is 1.4 million barrels. This is just 200,000 more than its current estimated daily exports.

Before the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal known as JCPOA and imposed sanctions in 2018, Iran was exporting around 2 million bpd, but that capacity seems to have slipped away for now.

Before the 1979 revolution Iran was producing well over 5 million pd, but that capacity has declined over the last four decades because of lack of investments and technology.

Iran’s oil minister Javad Owji said last November that the country needs $160 billion in investments in its oil and gas industry to prevent further declines in production.

That is not a task to be accomplished in one or two years, even if Iran’s relations with West improve far beyond an impending nuclear dealseen by many as a partial or temporary agreement.

Lifting of US sanctions can nevertheless add some Iranian oil to global supplies, but whether it would enough to lower prices is related to other factors such as the Ukraine crisis and the how much production will increase in the United States at current high prices.

Reuters notes that the Biden administration, under the political pressure of high inflation, is interested in a deal with Iran to boost oil supplies. Washington is facing a three-pronged crisis with Russia, China and Iran. “Prioritization implies US policymakers need to concentrate on the immediate policy problem (Russia) and their long-term top priority (China) while de-escalating a conflict with is neither pressing nor of the first order (Iran),” the article argues.

Brigadier General Hossein Housh-Sadat said on Wednesday that the Khatam-al Anbiya base will sell the crude through some “organizations that are legal” without elaborating on how the IRGC would sell the oil.

He said parts of the proceeds from the oil sales would be used to settle debts to contractors and some other parts will be allocated to new projects. The IRGC business conglomerate, with its flagship Khatam al-Anbiya “base” is the largest concern in the country, receiving many government contracts without competition.

Earlier in February, the spokesman of the parliament's budget review committee, Rahim Zare’, said the IRGC base will get 20 trillion rials ($80 million) worth of crude oil to finish construction projects for the country’s prayer grounds.

The administration of President Ebrahim Raisi is giving a lot of projects to different sections of the IRGC in return for crude oil that Tehran cannot sell due to sanctions, including a $3 billion project for rice production.

The government has announced that 4.5 billion euros worth of crude oil will be put at the disposal of the armed forces to sell. This means the lion’s share will go to the IRGC, which must find middlemen and illicit ways to export the oil, giving rise to corruption.

"You have no right to treat people as if they aren't able to make decisions for themselves or as if they are mentally incapacitated…Representatives of people have no right to act against the wishes of their constituents. You can't impose something if people don't want it, even if it's against what you deem beneficial to them," Masoud Pirhadi, chief editor of conservative Resalat newspaper tweeted Tuesday in reaction to the approval of the general outlines of a bill to enforce restrictions on the internet and access to various apps and platforms.

An ad hoc parliamentary committee on Tuesday approved the outlines of the controversial bill ironically entitled 'Legislation to Protect Cyberspace Users'. The legislation results in broad restriction of social messaging platforms and access to the global net, in addition to extensive blockage of thousands of websites and most social media platforms.

Hours later, the parliament's own Regulations and Bylaws Division in a statement said the committee had broken the law in ratifying a different version of the bill referred to it for examination and approval.

Those behind the hasty approval of the outlines of the bill, however, are adamant that their move was legal.

The committee's move added salt to the wounds of many who have been affected by the growing plunge in the speed of internet in the past two months. The slow internet has affected many areas of life from navigation of taxis and cars to tens of thousands of large and small online businesses that rely on Instagram, as well as government and public online services.

Slow speed also disrupts access to circumvention software and VPNs which an overwhelming majority of Iranians routinely use to access blocked websites and applications including platforms such as Facebook and You Tube and messaging applications such as WhatsApp.

Authorities also appear to have. simultaneously reduced the bandwidth for Instagram and WhatsApp which makes them very hard or impossible to access.

Speaking at a cabinet meeting Wednesday, President Ebrahim Raisi tried to calm the public by saying that the communications ministry must provide "safe, high quality, and fast internet" to the people.

Many immediately took to social media to tell Raisi that "safe" is only another word for "censored", as the government and parliament have used the term in Persian. They republished remarks by Abdolnaser Hemmati, Raisi's rival, during the election debates in June about the president's vision of "safe internet": " Iran is not North Korea, Mr Raisi. Your 'safe internet' means shutting down Instagram!".

Criticism of the parliament and government's plans for restricting internet freedom is not limited to the opposition. Resalat newspaper, the mouthpiece of the Islamic Coalition Party (Motalefeh), in an editorial Wednesday criticized the plan. "Tyranny is haram in Islam," the editorial said, meaning religiously forbidden.

"How can we expect people not to be afraid of wide-ranging filtering [of websites]? How can we expect people not to be reminded of November 2019 [anti-government protests]?" the editorial asked in a clear reference to the nearly complete internet blackout for over a week during the protests.

"The rulers must not impose something on people even if it is reasonable, which in this case it definitely is not, and people are strongly against it, which in this case they definitely are, and should surrender to people's will even if it is a misstep," Resalat wrote.

Many among the public and some reformist politicians have also demanded a serious probe, leaving the Speaker vulnerable to serious pressure.

Earlier this month a leaked audio tape resurfaced in which two top Revolutionary Guard generals, former commander-in-chief Mohammad Ali Jafari and his deputy for financial affairs Sadeq Zolqadrnia are heard discussing a major corruption case. The top-secret tape revealed that over $3 billion disappeared in an IRGC-linked company and is still unaccounted for after several years.

Ghalibaf’s name comes up in the recording as the lead person who as mayor of Tehran at the time wants to cover up the embezzlement by involving the city administration in a fake contract to account for the lost money.

Hardliner cleric Hamid Rasaei, who is a member of the largest ultra-conservative faction in parliament (Majles), has charged in an article that Ghalibaf's aides clamp down on anyone who even thinks that the Speaker was involved in financial corruption.

Rasaei wrote: "The members of a clan who worship Ghalibaf do not like anyone to talk about the matter or criticize him." He was pointing to those aides who have tried to protect Ghalibaf from corruption allegations using his friendship with former IRGC Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani, killed in a US drone strike in January 2020.

If you do criticize Ghalibaf, said Rasaei in a series of tweets, then you will come under attack by the pro-Ghalibaf media artillery. He posted screenshots of articles on several websites that attacked him and reformist activist Mostafa Tajzadeh who has also asked why nobody probes the financial case involving Ghalibaf.

Ghalibaf supporters have argued that Soleimani knew about the dealings in question and therefore the affair had nothing corrupt in it.

Rasaei has also written to the head of the Iranian armed forces judicial office asking it to shed light on the contents of the leaked audio file, without mentioning Ghalibaf.

He also charged that Ghalibaf's media adviser has tarnished the image of the IRGC and Soleimani to protect his boss.

Meanwhile prominent conservative activist Hossein Kanani Moghaddam told the press that it was unfair to sacrifice Soleimani’s reputation to protect Ghalibaf. He called on IRGC commanders and particularly former commander Mohammad Ali Jafari to shed light on the case and not allow Ghalibaf’s aides to tarnish Soleimani's image. He called the actions of an aide "a plot against Soleimani and the IRGC," a damning accusation that could entail dangerous repercussions.

"It was an unmanly act to try to whitewash Ghalibaf's corruption by levelling accusations against Soleimani," Kanani Moghaddam said. He also called on Ghalibaf to be accountable for what he has done to save the IRGC's face.

The attacks on Ghalibaf are however, not solely motivated by a desire to restore justice. Most of the attacks come from the members and media outlets of the ultraconservative Paydari Party, Ghalibaf's main rival at the parliament. During the past two years, Ghalibaf gave or solicited top jobs for his rivals in Paydari to establish his role as the speaker of the Majles. Now Paydari appears to be poised to unseat Ghalibaf when an annual election for Majles Speaker is slated to take place.

The only one who can save Ghalibaf and help him out of the trouble, is Ghalibaf’s relative, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who saved him once by ordering everyone not to dwell on the case when it first surfaced in 2017.