A Meeting Of Two Former Presidents Sparks Speculations In Iran

Firefighters gathered in front of Tehran city hall on Wednesday in protest to the indifference of authorities to their problems.

They also urged the resignation of Tehran’s Fire Department chief and vowed to continue similar rallies until their demands are met.

Last week, thousands of teachers held their fourth round of nationwide protests in more than 50 Iranian cities to demand better salaries and the release of their colleagues detained in earlier demonstrations.

Authorities, who have shown little interest in raising salaries, arrested Mohammad Taghi Fallahi, the head of Iran’s teachers’ union to serve his six-month sentence for organizing the protests.

Workers and employees from various economic sectors are holding regular protest rallies or strikes to demand better work conditions and salaries.

Last week, hundreds of staff members from Iran’s hardliner judiciary department took to the streets in several cities, in what was an unprecedented development.

Food prices have risen by more than 60 percent in recent months, on top of high inflation in the previous three years. Government figures show that prices for 83 percent of basic food staples have reached a critical level. People living on salaries have cut back on nutritious food, such as meat, fruits and dairy products.

Hashemi-Taba told Aftab News in Tehran that increasing economic pressure on people has led to social abnormalities and Iranians are feeling that authorities are not responsive to their demands. This can lead to a new wave of protests, he warned.

Hashemi-Taba said that there has been a lot of pressure on the Iranian middle class during the past few years and some sociologists even say that the middle class has been eliminated. As a result, the remaining affluent class have are facing the poor and this can have dangerous consequences.

"The problem is not simply one of class differences. The problem is that people are frustrated and there is no bright prospect for the future. When people are poor and frustrated at the same time, this means that they have nothing to lose," Hashemi-Taba said.

He said one of these consequences is migration from the villages to the marginal areas of large cities. He added that the problem will not be solved by distributing small handouts. "Giving away bread coupons will not solve the problem” he said.

He highlighted protests by workers from various sectors of the economy and asked how long people can remain patient. He also criticized officials who ignore the volatile situation and make statements to please top leaders, adding insult to injury.

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Meanwhile, reformist lawmaker Massoud Pezeshkian has told Ensaf New, a media outlet he owns, that Iran's current situation is similar to the former Soviet Union and the Eastern bloc in the final years before the collapse of Communism.

He said there are many lessons for decision-makers in Iran such as the collapse of Communist governments in East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Rumania and Bulgaria. There are many lessons in the history of that period for "the dictators, totalitarian rulers and those who are sure of themselves and think they are the only ones who know the truth."

The lawmaker made the comments after the picture of a book about the fall of the Soviet Union on his desk at parliament became controversial. The book was Revolution 1989, The Fall of the Soviet Empire (Victor Sebestyen). He also quoted the Koran as advising the people to go around the world and see what became of those who oppressed the people.

Pezeshkian said, he reads that book when he does not need to participate in parliamentary discussions, adding that he has also read other books during session, including Why Nations Fail (D. Asemoglu and J. A. Robinson) and the Narrow Road to Freedom (Michael Leitman) as well as religious books.

Pezeshkian said Eastern bloc countries failed because of the wrong behavior of totalitarian their totalitarian leaders. When rulers create dictatorships, societies tend to become chaotic. In such a situation, as soon as the government is weakened the society will rise and this leads to chaos and massacre, he argued.

Since 2018 Iranian cities have experienced major protests and the government's crackdown on protests led to hundreds of deaths as security forces fired military weapons into the crowds and often shot people to death at point blank range. During the latest protests in Iran in November, security forces used shotguns against farmers protesting the government's mismanagement of water resources, often shooting them in the face. During protests since 2017, “Death To the Dictator” has been a recurrent slogan by angry demonstrators.

Iran’s hardliner parliament has been discussing ways to intensify Internet censorship by establishing an intranet that would essentially ban foreign social media networks which allow Iranians to receive uncensored information and communicate with others.

The government has blocked thousands of websites in Iran for nearly 20 years both for ideological and political reasons. Almost all news and political websites not controlled by the government are inaccessible except by special software people need to use to get around the filtering.

Ali Yazdikhah, representing the capital Tehran, said on Tuesday that Iran should learn from China and Russia in restricting access to the Internet. His remarks came as Iran has signed a 25-year cooperation agreement with China and is expected to expand cooperation in many areas.

Facebook, You Tube and Twitter are also blocked. Instagram is the only major international platform still accessible, which Iranians use extensively to conduct ecommerce. This is one major impediment to parliament’s plan for shutting down all foreign social media networks.

Yazdikhah mentioned that plans call for free domestic intranet for users who have to pay to have access to foreign sites and platforms “without restriction”, but this is highly unlikely given the sensitivity of the clerical regime.

In an interview with the conservative news website Nameh News, Mohammad Mohajeri said, "Some statements made by the government's supporters enrage the people," adding that "When people become angry their demands will increase, and this is costly for the government."

Hardliners recently often highlight multiple crises Iran faces, as a way to say that Raisi’s job is hard, and people should be patient. But the negative comments reflect badly on the regime itself, which many people see as incompetent.

Mohajeri was also talking about cases such as a lawmaker who told people not to listen to music or buy musical instruments and to leave the country if they don’t like the restriction. Other cases include statements by Labor Minister Hojjat Abdolmaleki who said he is not responsible for creating jobs.

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Other examples of outrageous statements by hardliners include Mashad Friday Prayers Imam Ahmad Alamolhoda saying those who criticize clerics in the government should be punished for throwing stones at the prophet or the cleric who said on the state television that every Iranian couple should have 14 children. Even Supreme Leader Khamenei's chief political adviser Ali Akbar Velayati said people in Iran should wear aprons like the Yemenis and eat nothing but dried out bread.

Mohajeri said: "Some of the government supporters want a change in the people's lifestyle to reduce pressures that are being exerted on Raisi to solve [the current economic] crisis. But theseremarks prompt the people to have a negative attitude toward the government."

"Some of those who make such statements about people's private life are the members of the ultraconservative Paydari party who say these things only to milk the government. They are telling the government indirectly: Give us our share [of wealth and power]!" and we will defend you, said Mohajeri.

Another group of supporters are Raisi's uneducated friends, he said. "They think they are helping the government by making those outlandish remarks, but they are not aware that these statements backfire and will make Raisi’s weak government even weaker," he said. "We know that Raisi was elected in a low-turnout election and enjoys very little social support."

The third group, said Mohajeri, are Raisi’s real supporters. "They make these comments deliberately as they think they are still campaigning in the elections. What they do is magnify problems they say the previous government created” and blame the Rouhani administration for the country's multiple crises. “What they ignore is that the Raisi has been in office for six months now and the people are more likely to lash out at his administration for shortcomings," Mohajeri argueded, adding that sometimes claims made by this group are not true in the first place.

The commentator added that these three groups have different intentions. Yet the outcome of what they say is the same because whatever they say will eventually weaken Raisi, while he may not realize this and think that they are exerting pressure on his political rivals.

"There is an expiration date for comments that blame the previous government for the country's problems. After a while, nobody will believe them,” Mohajeri noted, as people tend to demand solutions from those who are in charge.

"Blaming the previous government will only increase people’s anger. And when they are angry, they demand things more insistently, and this will be even more costly for the current administration," Mohajeri stressed.

Deputy Interior Minister Taghi Rostamvandi said in a conference in Tehran on Sunday, [January 16] that social trends in the country are largely alarming. Some of these trends indicate an interest in a secular government, he said.

"This will be extremely alarming if we find out that as a result of the incompetency of the government, people feel that the religious government is incapable of solving the country's problems and that a secular government can be effective," Rostamvandi added.

The official did not explain how four decades of Shiite clerical rule have made the people turn their backs to the Islamic Republic government

A study published in September showed that only 32 percent of Iranians identify themselves as "Shiite Muslim," and nearly half of the population have moved on from religiosity and are "atheists."

The official said that rising tendency toward immigration among Iranian of all walks of life indicates that there are too many reasons to leave the country. One of the main reasons, he said, was the difficult economic situation and the rise of unemployment.

Last January, a study conducted by the Iranian Immigration Monitoring Agency indicated that the number of Iranian students in Turkey has risen by 1,300 percent during the past few years. There were 438 Iranian students in Turkey in 2013, but the number rose to 6,099 in 2017, the agency said.

In December 2017, an adviser to the Roads and Transportation Minister said that 5.1 million Iranians, mainly educated individuals and skilled workers, were in the waiting list for immigration to Australia and Canada.

This comes while President Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi) has said recently that "Western cultures and political systems are not attractive for the Iranian youths. No young Iranian would want to live in a Western cultural atmosphere.

According to Rostamvandi demand for fundamental changes in Iran are on the rise.

During the past years over 100 Iranian cities have been the scene of nationwide protests that were eventually violently suppressed by the security forces.

Expounding on the reasons for the rise in protests, the official said, "There has been a decline in the people's resilience during recent years as there has been a rise in economic and financial difficulties."

The Islamic Republic has described the protests in recent years as "riots" and has violently cracked down on civil rights and women activists. Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi, an IRGC general, said last month that the most serious blow to the Islamic Revolution is likely to come from among the country's female population."

Highlighting Iranians’ defiance against the government and the clerical rule, the Interior Ministry official said while the consumption of Alkohol in Iran has been banned since the 1979 Islamic revolution, around 10 percent of the population between 15 to 64 years of age drink alcohol.This is more than five million people, he said.

Meanwhile the ban on alcoholic drinks in Iran has made smuggled and bootleg booze popular and every year dozens of drinkers lose their sight or their lives to contraband alcoholic drinks.